Tale of the Tape: Landry Emerges
Why Jarvis Landry Will Matter Down the Stretch in Fantasy Football
For the past few years, Brian Hartline has been on the Wes Welker/Julian Edelman level of consistent pass catcher that helps his team move the chains. It’s one of the reasons why I was high on him coming into the season, especially in PPR leagues, because I saw him as a safe bet to catch 100 passes and be a safe bench option to plug in during bye weeks.
But I will admit I was wrong, because I didn’t properly account for how second-round rookie Jarvis Landry would be used by Miami. That’s partially due to how wholly uninspiring Landry’s NFL Draft Combine performance was, as he posted numbers that make him appear to be a worse athlete overall than Hartline. But his huge hands and ability to get open against top-level defenders have earned him a spot on the field, and that means it’s time to start paying closer attention to him.
Here’s an example from Sunday’s game against the Lions, one of the best defenses in the NFL.
Landry is lined up in the slot, and will get up the seam and make a nice move to get a step on his defender to the inside.
Charles Clay is running a drive route across the formation, taking the linebacker out of the zone where Landry is running to. This is a solid route combination for Miami.
Apologies for the lacking image quality here, but it’s tough to capture a play moving so fast in a still image. This is Landry going up and securing the ball well above his head. According to Mockdraftable.com, Landry’s hands are in the 93rd percentile among wide receivers, and he showed he knows how to extend them to make a big catch on third down on this play.
In fact, his mediocre athleticism, lack of “elite” size, but huge hands and a knack for getting open and making a big catch are reminiscent of Anquan Boldin. That’s the kind of player he’s becoming for the Miami offense, as well.
Earlier in the season, against Green Bay, Landry “played big” in the red zone, something that can help elevate the fantasy football profile of a smaller, less athletic wide receiver.
Landry is at the top of a three-man bunch on the right side of the formation, and will run straight up the field with #38 for the Packers in his hip pocket.
You can see than in less than five yards, Landry has worked himself into good position to receive a throw to the inside and over his shoulder, not allowing the defender to make a play on the ball.
And as it turns out, that’s just the kind of throw Ryan Tannehill makes, so Landry reaches out and makes a strong catch under pressure from the defender and brings it down for a score.
Landry is a slot receiver, but on this particular play he went toe-to-toe with a boundary corner and won. Tramon Williams (the Packer defender he beat for the score) isn’t a superstar, but he is a serviceable cornerback, not a rotational nickel defender, a safety or a linebacker. So when Landry does get more favorable matchups against those lesser pass coverage players, he’s going to win almost every time.
This has earned him the trust of Ryan Tannehill, who targeted him a season-high 10 times against Detroit. In Miami’s losses this season, Landry has been thrown at 10, 7, 7 and 6 times, while his volume has been lower in the team’s wins. That’s a sign that when Miami knows they need to throw to stay in a game or catch up, Landry is getting open and getting involved in the offense.
Brian Hartline, on the other hand, has 2, 3, 4, 7 and 1 targets in his last five games, and appears to be getting phased out of the offense in favor of Landry. The duo have been on the field for the same number of pass plays in recent weeks, but Landry is simply seeing more targets as he gets open and makes catches in traffic for Tannehill.
So keep an eye on Landry’s price moving forward, and don’t be hesitant to roll him out in a PPR format when Miami is going to be chasing a lead, like they will in two weeks when they face the Denver Broncos, or in a crucial Week 15 game against New England. He’s unlikely to win you a GPP, but for the right price he can be a high-floor punt as a pass catcher to allow you to spend up elsewhere.
What’s Up with Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Passing Game?
The Atlanta Falcons had an incredibly easy matchup this weekend against the Buccaneers, yet Matt Ryan only came away with one touchdown pass and a middling 15-ish points in daily fantasy formats. This is nothing new for Ryan, who has struggled of late to post impressive numbers of any kind.
Since October 5th, Ryan hasn’t gone over 300 yards in a game, and has only thrown more than one touchdown once since late September. But he’s got more great matchups on the horizon, so can we trust him moving forward, or has he simply fallen off the map?
Let’s take a look at some of the shortcomings for Atlanta against the Buccaneers this weekend, and on the season as a whole.
Here’s Matt Ryan in a clean pocket, something that rarely happens for him behind his patchwork offensive line. Atlanta has brought in extra blockers to help out, and it’s given the Boston College product plenty of time to survey the field.
Here’s Johnthan Banks against Julio Jones, who is in the process of breaking his double move off and getting up the field, away from the slower corner. Ryan should see this and make the throw any time now, as Jones has 32 yards of green grass in front of him with no defenders in sight.
And if Ryan hadn’t made the throw yet, he certainly should now, as Jones has gained a couple of yards of seperation in a very short time against Banks. Any throw put into the end zone at this point would almost certainly result in a touchdown…
But then this happens. The pass is underthrown because Ryan waited too long, and Banks was able to recover and make a play to save a touchdown.
These are game-changing plays that tip the scales in fantasy matchups, and this one was just barely missed. But it’s all on Ryan, who failed to recognize the open receiver early enough, and didn’t get enough mustard on his throw to lead his athletic wideout in for a score.
But we’re going to find that Matt Ryan’s statistical struggles aren’t all Matt Ryan’s fault.
On this play, Ryan has thrown a strike to a wide open Devin Hester (who settled into the zone behind the corner and wide of the safety, something I mentioned as a big weakness in the Tampa Bay defense during last week’s preview). He led him into open space, and gave him a nice, high throw that’s easy to see and grab for a score.
Except it’s not a score. It’s a drop.
Ryan has been the victim of 22 dropped passes so far this season, according to Pro Football Focus, which is tied for fourth-most in the NFL. Those drops have come on passes that have traveled a combined 255 yards in the air, also per PFF, which is second-most in the league. So not only are passes being dropped, but they’re being dropped further downfield than most, which means they hurt Ryan’s fantasy production even more.
It also doesn’t help that the plays called for him are often a bit absurd.
Here’s a third down near midfield in a crucial moment, late in a one-score game. Atlanta could put the game out of reach with a score on this drive, but a punt would (and did) put the Bucs in a position to take the lead.
He has Devin Hester, who is short and already has proven his shaky hands, running what amounts to a wheel route from the slot, with help from Roddy White on a rub/pick route.
Hester will get to the outside and head upfield, meaning Ryan’s throw must be over the defender and drop into the hands of one of his shortest pass catchers. This is a very low percentage throw.
Everything went perfectly, but Ryan’s throw was inches too far, and the play ends as an incomplete pass that allows the Bucs to get the ball back (and score).
Watching this game, among other Falcons games in the past, I’ve seen lots of questionable play calling decisions from the Atlanta coaching staff. Ryan seems to bail out his coaches in some key moments, but in others, the quarterback is simply left without good options, or is put into positions to make throws that just don’t make sense given the game situation.
But possibly the biggest issue for Ryan, and the one that will keep him as a risky play in daily fantasy, is his team’s horrible offensive line play. Pro Football Focus rates the Atlanta line as 25th in the league in overall pass block efficiency, having allowed 109 total pressures on Ryan in 371 passing plays.
And on the plays Ryan has been under pressure for, his QB rating been an ugly 65.0, a far cry from the 93.4 rating he has on the season. Ryan is immobile and not the best in the pocket, which means he’s a sitting duck when his line can’t keep defenders out of the backfield.
This situation won’t improve any time soon, and against any team with a strong pass rush, Ryan is a gamble in daily fantasy. But with soft defenses like the Panthers, Cardinals, Packers, Steelers and Saints on the horizon, there will be plenty of temptation to use Ryan in lineups, especially if his price remains as low as it is now.
Ryan is unlikely to ever implode and post a truly horrific score for your DFS lineups, but it is possible that he’ll lay an egg in a nice matchup thanks to any of the issues shown above. He’s an above-average player with some below-average coaching and supporting cast members, and that will always lead to inconsistency and frustration.