Tale of the Tape: New England's Headache Continues
One of the major topics of discussion this preseason among fantasy analysts in year-long fantasy football was the fragility of running backs and the relative value of the position as a whole. One of the main concerns about the running back position is the amount of injuries and coaching decisions that will turn a draft pick into a waiver wire player in an instant.
Daily fantasy players don’t need to worry about the long-term health or viability of running backs, as they pick a new lineup every week, but they do need to keep an eye for changes on depth charts around the league, as a new starting running back for any team could lead to good value as an unheralded replacement gets a start with no previous information available to drive up his price.
This was the case in Week 7, as two backs stepped into the spotlight and took on bigger roles. Let’s take a look at both, and project how they’ll do moving forward.
The Headache Continues in New England
Predicting the New England Patriots backfield seems like a pure game of chance, as Josh McDaniels and his team of offensive coaches tend to make random decisions at a whim when it comes to who receives handoffs in that offense.
But with Stevan Ridley done for the season with an injury, many thought some clarity may be coming for those who wish to risk it and play a New England back in daily fantasy.
And to a certain extent, those people were right. Shane Vereen received 11 of the team’s 14 running back carries on Thursday against the Jets, and also caught five passes (including two for touchdowns). He had 8 of his team’s 36 targets, and 3 of the team’s four red zone touches on the evening.
But the game was competitive throughout, and having Vereen on the field was essential. Earlier this season, I took a look at Vereen’s usage when compared to Ridley’s, and found that the score had a lot to do with which back saw more carries. Vereen is clearly the best receiving back (and one of the best receivers, full stop) for New England, and having him on the field in a close game keeps the defense honest.
Here’s a look at how the Patriots used him as a receiver to break down Rex Ryan’s defense.
This was Vereen’s long touchdown catch, and as you can see from this first image, the Jets are in some form of Cover 3 defense. I’m not going to try to decipher a Rex Ryan defense any more than that, as he’s known for his unique and exotic schemes, but the presence of three deep defenders and underneath coverage meant to pick up hooks, slants and flats shows all the hallmarks of Cover 3.
Shane Vereen was split wide, to the top of the image, and was ignored by the Jets. It’s typical for backs to be split out by teams, as putting a receiver to the far side of the formation dictates the defense’s alignment and can help spread the field out. Yet they’re still a threat to get open down the field, and the Jets didn’t account for that (somehow) on this play.
The corner lined up across from Vereen and the safety responsible for the deep-third on Vereen’s side bite on a receiver open in the flat (with Tom Brady rolling in that direction), and neither picks up Vereen streaking down the sideline.
The rest is history, as there’s no one within 10 yards of the back as he dives for a slightly overthrown pass and scores an easy touchdown after making the grab.
Vereen’s receiving ability stands out on a play like this, as he’s trusted to get further down field than most backs will ever get on a passing play, and he proves he’s capable of making a great catch on a poorly thrown pass. He’s not going to get this wide open every week, but he’s capable of taking advantage of lapses in coverage just like any wideout, and that gives him value when the Patriots are airing it out in a close game.
Now we’ll take a look at Vereen’s other touchdown, and we can see that in this case, he’s matched up one-on-one with a linebacker in a goal-to-go situation. There are quite a few linebackers in the NFL who can cover the average back in space, but going up against Vereen is a clear mismatch here for the Jets’ backer.
Vereen makes a great inside fake before breaking outside, which has the defender’s momentum moving toward the hashes, and away from Tom Brady’s throw that will be arriving within two seconds.
Vereen quickly breaks outside, Brady finds him with a good throw, and it’s another touchdown for the Cal product.
We know about Vereen as a receiver, but how does he stack up as a runner? That’s a complicated question, but one that we can answer by taking a look at the team and coaching staff he’s associated with. Let’s take a look at a run from Thursday’s game to see why it’s impossible to trust Vereen (or any New England back) as a reliable option on the ground.
This was Vereen’s best run of the evening, a 17-yard gain running left.
And this isn’t a great start to the play, as New England barely gets a block on the outside defender who would have stopped Vereen for a loss. The New England lineman circled in the image gets just enough of the New York linebacker to turn his body, allowing Vereen to bounce the play outside.
We then see Julian Edelman getting in a cut block downfield as Vereen is chased to the outside. This is the block that turns this run into a first down.
This was Vereen’s only run of more than six yards on the day, and that has little to do with his own ability. The New England offensive line has struggled all season, ranking ninth-worst according to Pro Football Focus’ run blocking grades. And when the Patriots were trying to run out the clock in the fourth quarter, Vereen got three carries for a combined -4 yards.
New England simply can’t run at will on opponents, something they did so well during their dominance in the 2000’s. They finished first or second in run blocking every season from 2007-2012, according to PFF, and this year’s team is a far cry from that level of play.
Which is why Vereen isn’t going to see as many carries in games that aren’t close on the scoreboard, because his versatility and quickness aren’t as useful when the Patriots are trying to grind out the game against a defense that knows what’s coming (and with an offensive line that can’t get leverage on a running play).
Vereen may see a few more snaps, a few more targets and a few more carries than he would have with Ridley still around, but for the rest of the season, there’s no way to feel any more confident in Vereen than we did prior to Ridley’s injury. The Patriots aren’t a good run blocking team, and Vereen isn’t going to be given carries in blowouts, so continue to use Ridley in what should be close games, and fade him in likely blowouts.
Which isn’t easy considering how inconsistent the Patriots have been this year. The New England backfield is still a headache, and shouldn’t be trusted any more than it was a week ago, or three weeks ago.
Have the Jaguars Finally Found Their Running Back?
Toby Gerhart was supposed to be a solid fantasy football option this season, taking over the lead role for Jacksonville and seemingly being guaranteed a boatload of volume.
But as it turns out, Gerhart isn’t really all that good, and that, combined with some nagging injuries, has forced Jacksonville to look elsewhere for a running back.
And after trying out rookie Storm Johnson, the Jags gave the top running back spot to Denard Robinson this week, and they may have fallen into a solid running back in the process.
Let’s take a look at what he was able to do this weekend.
This GIF shows some of Robinson’s best traits, which were put on display this weekend. The former Michigan quarterback changes direction and shows good vision to start the play, then sheds a tackler and gets upfield following contact, and finishes the play with a surge forward, not allowing the defenders to drive him back and give up ground at the end of the run.
Pro Football Focus charted Robinson has having 56 yards after contact, and I believe that could be a conservative number based on his performance this week. He shrugged off tacklers and finished plays with authority, something that his fellow backs in Jacksonville would seemingly do better than him.
These are traits normally shown by veteran running backs, not gadget players getting their first start at the position. Despite wearing a quarterback/wide receiver number and not featuring as a tailback that often in his NFL career, Robinson looked the part against Cleveland this weekend.
But the “Cleveland” portion of that sentence is why Robinson’s success must be taken with a grain of salt. The Browns have been poor against the run this year, giving up over 100 yards rushing to every team they’ve faced other than the Tennessee Titans.
So while Robinson showed good speed, agility, vision and balance, he’s still playing behind one of the worst lines in the NFL, and was going up against one of the weaker defenses in the league as well.
Robinson will be a viable option in the right matchups, but Jacksonville’s next game is against Miami. The Dolphins allowed a big game to Knile Davis in Week 3, but have otherwise shut down opposing rushing attacks, and will likely control the trenches against a weak Jacksonville offensive line.