Tale of the Tape: Oakland's Passing Game
Carr And Holmes: How Legit Is the Oakland Passing Game?
The 2014 NFL Draft presented QB-needy teams with four primary options, as Teddy Bridgewater, Blake Bortles, Johnny Manziel and Derek Carr were all rumored to be first-round picks and had their own positives and negatives to be weighed.
Bortles was the first off the board, because his physical profile and pocket presence were so NFL ready, but there were obvious concerns with his footwork and ability to run an NFL offense. Manziel was next because of his exciting athleticism and “instincts,” but his inability to beat Brian Hoyer for the Cleveland job proves just how far he was from being an NFL quarterback.
Bridgewater was dropped down the board over silly Pro Day concerns and “skinny knees,” and seemed to be the most likely to “Russell Wilson” the league and make teams regret passing him up. So far, his start in the NFL has presented mixed reviews.
And then there was Carr. Coming from Fresno State, he would play against some of the weakest Division I college football opponents available, and torch them for hundreds of yards per week. But he did so with a cannon arm and athleticism that rivaled Manziel (although no one ever talked about this).
And Carr would be the first of these quarterbacks to start, playing from Week 1 for the Raiders. That head start has allowed him to total eight touchdowns (no other rookie QB has more than four) and over 1000 passing yards on an offense featuring less-than-ideal skill position players.
But it’s his chemistry and development with one of the team’s other unheralded young stars that may bring him, and fantasy players, the best opportunities as the season goes on.
Against Oakland on Sunday, Carr opened the scoring with a beautiful deep pass to Andre Holmes, a young receiver out of Hillsdale College in Michigan. Holmes was invited to the 2011 NFL Draft Combine, but went undrafted, and bounced around on practice squads and in training camps before ending up with the Raiders.
Holmes isn’t the fastest receiver in the NFL, but he certainly has enough speed to take advantage of a defender who is a step behind, as we saw on the opening touchdown this weekend.
The Raiders have a brilliant play design here, as they’re attacking the aggressive San Diego defense with a route combination that will cause two Charger defenders to run into one another, creating a “pick play” without actually committing pass interference.
The Chargers have sold out on this play, playing very aggressively and close to the line of scrimmage. The safety you see just past the 30 will come up to defend the slot receiver, while the corner will attempt to stay with Holmes as he runs to the inside. The red lines represent their paths, which cross in the middle, and allow Holmes to get open over the middle.
Holmes gets inside release against his defender, and as the two Chargers approach one another, he takes off into the wide-open middle of the field.
And he’s more than fast enough to get ahead, and stay ahead, of the San Diego defenders on his way to the end zone.
Later in the game, Carr and Holmes would reveal an even more convincing play that shows why they’re in sync, and could do big things as the year goes on.
This play will involve a play action fake to the back, with Carr pulling the ball to sprint out to his right.
The San Diego linebackers and defensive backs have to respect Carr’s speed, as he’s already totaled 68 rushing yards this year on only eight attempts. That’s key in how this play unfolds…
Here you can see Holmes, working across the formation to get open for his quarterback who is sprinting right. Holmes has a clear path through the middle of the defense, as all of the interior defenders for San Diego have their eyes on Carr or the running back.
And after seeing his quarterback without a good option, Holmes breaks to the back corner of the end zone, getting behind a group of San Diego defenders who are focusing their attention elsewhere (either on Carr or another receiver).
This means Carr just has to keep the ball in play in the back corner of the end zone, and Holmes will get there easily. The throw is on point, and the small-school receiver picks up his second score of the day.
Holmes is a ridiculous athlete; capable of doing everything a receiver needs to do. He’s 6’4”, weighs 210 pounds, runs a 4.5 40-yard-dash, has explosive broad jump and vertical jump numbers, and has shown an understanding of how to get open and operate in the red zone and on third down.
So far this year, Holmes has caught 5 of 6 targets on third down for 155 yards and a touchdown. Carr is looking for him in key moments, and finding him capable of moving the chains and making big plays. His price will go up after Sunday’s big game, but his involvement in the Oakland passing game will continue to increase, as well.
Holmes’ value will increase proportionately with Carr’s, who threw for four touchdowns against San Diego and looked impressive as a young starter going up against one of the league’s best teams. Here’s one more example of what Carr does well, and why he’s trending up.
Brice Butler is going to run a soft slant/seam route on this play, then break outside to get away from man-to-man coverage. Carr handles the play beautifully and helps turn it into a touchdown.
Carr is looking off his receiver, making sure no help defenders drift into the area, and checking to see if any of his other options are available. But his timing is perfect, and he shifts his head back to Butler and quickly diagnoses the situation.
He gets the ball out as Butler is breaking outside, and places it perfectly in front of his receiver so that his advantage on the defender is maintained, and he’s able to run after the catch and pick up a big play.
Carr still has things he needs to work on, and he’ll face tougher tests than the San Diego defense this year. But he’s already showing that he has the arm strength and the understanding of the offense to flourish in his first year, and that means in the right matchup, he (and Holmes) can be game-changers in daily fantasy football.
The Tampa Bay Defense is a Dumpster Fire
Watching the Tampa Bay Buccaneers every weekend, I’ve seen some of the worst defense in the National Football League this season. Busted assignments, poor execution, dumb mistakes and weak playcalling have sunk the Bucs, who have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete over 70% of their passes this season with 15 touchdowns and only four interceptions.
Which is why Torrey Smith and Joe Flacco’s big day on Sunday is more indicative of how bad the Bucs are, rather than how good the Ravens are. Let’s take a look at two of Flacco’s touchdowns quickly to see what I mean.
Torrey Smith is matched up with Brandon Dixon here, a rookie out of Division II Northwest Missouri State. But that “matchup” only means so much, as it’s not clear any Buccaneer is actually concerned with covering Smith.
Three steps into his route, Smith hasn’t been touched, and has more than a step on Dixon, who is shading to the outside and funneling him into the middle of the field. The problem with that? Slot corner Leonard Johnson is sitting down to cover slot receiver Michael Camapanaro, and linebacker Mason Foster and safety Major Wright are not even in the same zip code.
So when Smith breaks inside, there’s no one there to stop him, and Flacco makes the easy throw for the score.
Here is Smith’s other touchdown. (Yes, this is a different play, I promise.)
Another clean release for Smith…
Who gets separation easily against Dixon (who is again playing with outside leverage, obviously indicating that he thinks he has help inside, even if that’s not the right call), and…
… makes an easy grab for a score.
Torrey Smith’s two scores on the day were on plays where he was “covered” by a rookie and untouched until he reached the end zone. And while it’s a positive to see Torrey involved in the Baltimore offense yet again, his success speaks more to how bad the Tampa Bay defense has been.
The Bucs have a bye week, and return with games against the Vikings, Browns and Falcons. Prepare to roster Greg Jennings, Cordarrelle Patterson, Jordan Cameron, Miles Austin, Julio Jones and Roddy White, as they’ll all make for phenomenal plays against a defense that looks nothing like anything Lovie Smith ever coached in Chicago or St. Louis.