Tale of the Tape: The Rise of Mike Evans
The 2014 NFL Draft was loaded with wide receiver talent, with more first-round caliber players than there were teams spending first round picks on the position. Sammy Watkins and Mike Evans were both seen as elite wideout prospects, and were justifiably taken very early in the draft.
The Rise of Mike Evans
Watkins made his splash in the NFL very early, carrying the Buffalo offense to some key wins in his first few weeks on the field. Kelvin Benjamin, a more controversial prospect taken a bit later in the draft, also started off strong, while Evans dealt with nagging preseason injuries and didn’t exactly dominate from the start of his NFL career.
But he’s healthy now, and has gone on an absolute tear, even with changes under center in the Tampa Bay offense. He has six touchdowns in his last five games, and is moving to the top of the NFL in several statistical categories. In fact, Evans is second in the league (among receivers with 40 or more catches) in yards per reception, and according to Pro Football Focus, no player has caught more of the deep throws tossed in their direction than Evans.
So I think it’s about time that we took a look at Evans, and determine whether he’ll be worth his now sky-high pricetag moving forward.
Here’s Evans lined up in the slot with Louis Murphy to the outside. This is really smart by the Buccaneers, as Washington leaves slot corner Tracy Porter on Evans, while starting corner Bashaud Breeland stays outside on the less threatening Murphy. Porter is up tight on Evans, likely thinking that the big, strong receiver isn’t a threat to get deep against him.
Which is why Porter was probably willing to let Evans release to the outside rather than fighting him at the line. Many knocked Evans for lacking the speed to separate from defensive backs at the NFL level, which in retrospect seems a bit silly…
Because not only does Evans have the speed to get away from defenders, he also knows how to leverage his size and strength downfield. Here Evans uses a very subtle arm to the neck/face of Porter to get last-second distance from his defender and make the grab.
He then turns on the jets for a short burst of speed and Porter is left in the dust. Getting separation in the NFL isn’t always about pure speed, sometimes it’s about being physical and having good short-area quickness. Evans showed he’s capable of both of those things on this play.
Evans has very long arms, and when he uses them to ward off a defensive back, he’s going to win every single time that a flag isn’t thrown. His height-adjusted speed score indicates that he’s a better athlete than he should be at his size, and his long arms mean his catch radius is huge to haul in wayward passes once he gets into open space.
But sometimes Evans just gets open because he’s a good athlete and can run good enough routes to beat NFL defensive backs.
Here Evans is going to begin his route like he’s heading on a fade or out-breaking route, but then turn infield and get inside leverage on his defender.
Here you can see him setting up the outside move, which he’s about to break inside and leave the Washington DB behind and in trailing position for a throw that will lead Evans up the seam.
Evans ran a really good route and had the speed to get away from the defender. He then had leverage to the inside, and there’s no way a defender is going to go around or through the massive Evans to get to this pass unless it’s brutally under-thrown.
On the past two examples, Evans has won on speed and technique. Sometimes, however, Evans wins on size and athleticism. Here’s an example from the Bucs recent game against Atlanta.
Evans is defended tight at the line in what amounts to a red-zone opportunity. The Bucs are just outside of the 20, and the Falcons are playing close to the line to stop the short pass.
Evans gets physical with his defender, Robert Alford, who is giving up about seven inches of height and 40-50 pounds of weight to the Texas A&M product…
…and that ends just about as well as you’d expect it to end for the Buccaneer receiver. To add insult to injury, Evans then gets in a little bit of a push off to get even more space as he looks up for the ball while approaching the end zone.
Alford is late arriving and still makes a great effort to go up and get the ball away from Evans, but the former basketball player gets up high and uses his long arms and strong hands to haul in the pass for a score.
Evans has at least nine targets in each of his last three games, which span a quarterback change for the Bucs. He’s clearly moved into the top role in the Tampa Bay passing attack, ahead of veteran Vincent Jackson, thanks to his superior athleticism and Jackson’s nagging injuries.
But will Evans continue to shine once defenses with capable cover corners start giving him the attention of their top cover men? Evans only saw one target against Joe Haden in their recent game against the Browns, seeing most of his work against Buster Skrine and rookie Justin Gilbert. The next few weeks don’t have any real shut down corners waiting for Evans, especially not Week 12’s contest with Chicago.
The Bucs rookie receiver is a big play threat and is trusted in what’s becoming a surprisingly efficient passing offense under Josh McCown. Weather permitting, a road game against the Bears is a solid opportunity to roll Evans out again in DFS, as we’ve previously seen how bad the Chicago defense can be against offenses that can stretch the field.
Assessing Ryan Mallett’s First Start for the Houston Texans
The Houston Texans made a change under center over their bye week, replacing veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick, who was playing about as well as he ever has (which is to say, as a borderline starting quarterback that isn’t good enough to keep the top spot on a depth chart for very long) with Ryan Malett. Mallett has always been seen as an exciting prospect after sitting behing Tom Brady forever in New England, but his preseason performances to date left a lot to be desired.
But head coach Bill O’Brien trusted Mallett from their time together with the Patriots, and wanted to see what he could do under center for his new team in Houston. So did the Texans actually take a step forward by making this move?
Through one game, it’s easy to get excited about Mallett, who threw for two scores and only one pick while averaging over seven yards per attempt. But a look at the tape reveals that the Texans may have just traded some of the frustrations they had with Fitzpatrick for new frustrations with the younger Mallett.
One of the things many experts expected from the towering Arkansas prospect was more deep shots down the field than we saw from the soft-tossing Fitzpatrick. That proved to be true, as Mallett’s average target was a yard further downfield than his predecessor, according to Pro Football Focus. But that doesn’t mean those throws were all that good.
Here was Mallett’s first pass of the game against Cleveland.
Andre Johnson is going to break out and then back up the field, and he’ll leave his defender in the dust in the process.
But as Johnson looks back for the ball, he’s having to slow down to track the short pass rather than staying in stride to catch what should be a long gain or a touchdown.
And he’s unable to slow down enough to haul in the inaccurate pass, which winds up being ruled incomplete despite the play working as intended up until the throw.
This reveals an important distinction we all need to make when it comes to Mallett’s ability. He is fully capable of throwing the ball really fast, and really far. He is not very skilled when it comes to putting the ball where it should be in the instances when he’s called upon to throw the ball fast or far in a real, moving football game.
That’s not to say he’s not capable of making good throws. They just don’t come often enough, and are often obscured from memory by the awful misses.
On this play, DeAndre Hopkins is going to get vertical and find an open area between the safety (not pictured) and corner you see in the picture above.
Much like Evans’ route we saw in the example earlier, Hopkins is going to use an outside move to help gain inside leverage against his defender. The safety isn’t going to get deep enough and isn’t going to track Hopkins well enough to factor into the play, giving Mallett a window to throw into.
Mallet does throw this pass accurately, and Hopkins is able to haul it in for a big gain. Mallett has an eye for the deep throw, and is capable of putting enough air under it to let his talented receivers go catch it, meaning Hopkins and Johnson may see a boost in value as the season goes on.
But it won’t be without frustration as long as Mallett is still struggling with bad ball placement. He missed several easy throws on Sunday, including this miss to a wide open Hopkins.
Hopkins was moving into open space, but the throw was well behind him, and resulted in an incompletion rather than what could have been an easy first down.
And while Mallett is only credited with one interception, he had two near misses on the afternoon that could have tanked the Texans’ otherwise solid game against the Browns. Here are those two plays.
This play actually results in a touchdown for Garrett Graham, who gets up the seam “uncovered” for a score. I put uncovered in quotes because the Browns’ middle linebacker was headed to that area when this happened…
The official acted as a pick for the defender, keeping him from closing down on a throw he read from the start. Mallett was laser focused on Graham, and the defender knew it and was making a break to at least get a hand on the ball, if not an interception. But the placement of the official saved the day, and Graham was able to score a crucial touchdown.
The next example is a scenario that could happen to any quarterback, veteran or inexperienced, but again shows Mallett’s tendency to lock in on a receiver and lose sight of the defense around him.
Mallett is looking for Hopkins again on this play, and for good reason. His defender is playing way off of the line of scrimmage, and the wideout has lots of open space for an easy catch on a slant.
But as you can see, outside linebacker Paul Kruger is going to make a delayed drop into coverage, and follow Mallett’s eyes right to the intended target.
Kruger isn’t a skilled pass catcher, so this bullet of a throw bounces off of his hands and hits the turf, but this was a very dangerous throw all the same, and one that could have really cost the Texans.
Mallett simply isn’t a complete quarterback, something we’ve seen in his past preseason appearances, and something that’s not changed with his move to a new team and a spot in the starting lineup. He’s big, strong and has a laser for an arm, but he’s immobile, imprecise and doesn’t have great decision-making ability. I would steer clear of Mallett in DFS, regardless of price, as he’s just too risky and limited to roll out with any confidence.
However, I do think that the change in quarterbacks increases the upside of Hopkins and Johnson, who should see more deep looks and could break big plays in the coming weeks. Matchups will dictate just how useful these players are on a week-to-week basis, but the ceiling is now a bit higher for the Houston receivers thanks to a stronger arm under center.