Buccaneers vs. Browns Odds, Picks, and Prediction
Buccaneers vs. Browns Odds
| Buccaneers Odds | -3.5 |
| Browns Odds | +3.5 |
| Over/Under | 42 |
| Date | Sun, Nov. 27 |
| Time | 1:00 p.m. |
| TV | FOX |
On Sunday afternoon, Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will travel to the shores of Lake Erie to battle Jacoby Brissett and the Cleveland Browns. Following a rough patch from Week 3 to Week 8, during which Tampa Bay lost five of six games – they have won back-to-back contests against the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks to get back to the .500 mark for the first time since early October. Cleveland enters play having lost six of their last seven games, though three of those defeats have come by three points or less. In this matchup, oddsmakers are anticipating a closely-contested affair, pricing Tampa Bay as 3.5-point road favorites on the spread.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tom Brady, in his age-45 campaign, has not been elite relative to the rest of the league, but he still ranks 4th in the NFL in passing yards and has thrown the fewest interceptions of any qualified signal caller through 10 games to begin the season. Amid constant media attention to off-of-the-field storylines involving his personal life, Brady has been a reliable option for this injury-depleted offense on a weekly basis. Outside of Tristan Wirfs at right tackle and Shaq Mason at right guard, the Buccaneers’ offensive line has been extremely porous, with center Robert Hainsey, left guard Nick Leverett, and left tackle Donovan Smith representing major question marks at their respective positions – especially with regard to run blocking. Entering play on Sunday, the Buccaneers rank 32nd in the league in offensive Rush EPA/play. Even against a poor Cleveland run defense, it would be surprising to see Tampa Bay have much success on the ground in this spot.
Only the Dallas Cowboys, Denver Broncos, and San Francisco 49ers have allowed fewer points per game this fall than Todd Bowles’ defense. Since allowing 41 points to Patrick Mahomes and company in Week 4, Tampa Bay has held their opponent to 21 points or less in five of six contests. One piece of injury news worth following ahead of kickoff for this unit is the status of defensive tackle Vita Vea. Vea returned to practice on Friday in a limited capacity, but remains questionable to suit-up on Sunday. If Vea is healthy enough to play, he could make a major impact against Cleveland center Hjalte Froholdt, who has been extremely poor in pass protection this year.
Cleveland Browns
Though Jacoby Brissett is not thought of as a franchise quarterback, he has not been the source of Cleveland’s struggles in 2022. Even with a backup signal caller, the Browns rank 6th in offensive EPA/play and 4th in total yards of offense per game. Running back Nick Chubb ranks 4th in the NFL in rushing yards and 2nd in rushing touchdowns. The offensive line has been nothing short of elite, ranking 3rd in Pro Football Focus’ grading system as a collective group. If there is any valid criticism to highlight on offense, it is that Cleveland ranks only 15th in third-down conversion rate.
The larger issue for the Browns this fall has been on the defensive side of the ball. In 10 games, Cleveland has allowed 30-plus points to their opponent on five occasions. Despite ranking 31st in defensive EPA/play, defensive coordinator Joe Woods and special teams coach Mike Priefer seem to have the support of head coach Kevin Stefanski, who deflected a media question during Monday’s press conference that implied Woods and Priefer should be out of a job. There is a healthy line of reasoning that coaching can only do so much with what they are given, and the undeniable fact is that defensive tackles Jordan Elliott and Taven Bryan have been two of the worst players at their position this season. Per Pro Football Focus, Elliott ranks 116th out of 121 qualified defensive tackles and Bryan ranks 100th, per Pro Football Focus. The secondary unit for the Browns has underperformed expectations as well, which is particularly surprising, considering that Cleveland’s offense has the fourth-most time of possession of any offense in the league entering Week 12. Whether the lack of production is attributable to the coaching staff or the players, the fact remains that this is a poor defense. Do not expect anything impressive from this unit on Sunday, even against a struggling Buccaneers’ offense.
Buccaneers vs. Browns – Picks & Predictions
The status of Vita Vea is worth following ahead of kickoff between the Buccaneers and the Browns, but regardless of whether Vea is able to suit-up – Tampa Bay should be able to secure a road victory in this spot. The absence of Greg Newsome in the slot could make it difficult for Cleveland to stop Tampa Bay in short-yardage situations, with Chris Godwin likely to see a number of snaps against a backup slot cornerback. If the Buccaneers sustain drives, they will keep their defense fresh, which could make life difficult for Jacoby Brissett and company – particularly, if Cleveland is trailing and forced into a pass-heavy game script. Bettors can trust Tampa Bay to get the job done here.
PICK: Buccaneers -3 (-125, DraftKings)
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