Texans vs. Jets Betting Odds, Prediction, & Pick
Texans vs. Jets Odds
| Texans Odds | +2 |
| Jets Odds | -2 |
| Over/Under | 42 |
| Date | Thursday, October 31st |
| Time | 8:15 PM ET |
| TV | Prime Video |
Happy Halloween! To celebrate the holiday, NFL fans will be treated to an exciting Thursday Night Football matchup between the Houston Texans and New York Jets. Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video from MetLife Stadium.
Ahead of kickoff, oddsmakers have priced the Jets as 2-point favorites on the spread. The total is set at 42 points.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks.
According to Evan Abrams of The Action Network, this is only the 7th time since 1990 that a team with a win% 50+ points lower than their opponent is listed as a favorite. The previous 6 teams listed as a favorite in that spot went 6-0 SU and 4-0-2 ATS.
Houston Texans Preview
Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs ruled out
The Texans will be without both of their top wide receivers, Collins and Diggs, who rank top 2 on the team in receptions, targets, receiving yards, receiving touchdowns, and catches leading to a 1st down this season. Of course, this makes life really difficult for the quarterback.
Making matters worse, C.J. Stroud wasn’t playing great even with his receiving corps healthy. Through 5 weeks, Stroud ranked only 16th in EPA/play, 22nd in success rate, and 18th in Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE). Since losing Collins, Stroud has been even worse, ranking 29th in EPA/play, 26th in success rate, and 31st in CPOE.
This is a tough spot for the Houston offense, especially on a short week.
Texans defense missing key pieces on Thursday
The Texans defense will get back their leading tackler, LB Henry To’oTo’o for Week 9, but this is still a unit that is missing a lot of talent overall. Their No. 2 tackler, LB Azeez Al-Shaair, plus S Jimmie Ward, have both been ruled out once again. Al-Shaair hasn’t played since Week 6, and Ward hasn’t played since Week 5.
Houston’s defense has played well the past 2 weeks without Al-Shaair and Ward, but it’s also worth noting that they played Anthony Richardson and a hobbled Jordan Love during that stretch. Richardson was benched after this past weekend’s poor performance against the Texans, and Love left this past weekend’s game early due to injury.
This unit ranks 2nd in DVOA for the season, so they have been a strength overall for Houston. However, they have allowed 26.5 points per game on the road this fall, compared to 18.3 points per game at home. That’s obviously a small sample size and not opponent-adjusted, but there could be something to Houston’s home/road splits defensively.
New York Jets Preview
Don’t count out Aaron Rodgers, Jets offense
Rodgers has seemingly struggled so far in 2024, but the surface-level numbers look a lot worse than the advanced metrics. Rodgers has thrown 7 interceptions, but he has the 3rd-lowest turnover-worthy play (TWP) of any qualified quarterback. The other four quarterbacks who are at the top of the leaderboard for TWP% rate each have 3 interceptions or fewer this season.
Rodgers has also generated a positive EPA/play in 5 of his team’s 8 games this year, with one of those games being a justified throwaway, with terrible weather at MetLife Stadium against a good Denver defense. Rodgers has been playing well on a down-to-down basis as well, with a 47.5%+ success rate in 3 consecutive games entering play on Thursday. During that stretch, Rodgers certainly hasn’t been top-tier at his position, but he’s been better than Stroud.
New York defense suffering from injury bug
New York’s defense will be without DL, Leki Fotu, EDGE Jermaine Johnson, LB CJ Mosley, LB Chazz Suratt, S Chuck Clark, S Tony Adams, and S Ashtyn Davis. Johnson and Clark are both on injured reserve. Adams, the team’s No. 3 tackler, and Davis are two of New York’s preferred starters in the secondary unit. Mosley led the Jets defense in tacklers in 2023.
New York’s defense faces an uphill battle on Thursday – even in a favorable matchup against a Houston offense that will be missing key pieces.
Texans vs. Jets Prediction
On the surface, the Texans (6-2) might seem like a surprising underdog in this matchup against the Jets (2-6). However, a deeper dive into the data suggests that these two teams aren’t that far apart in terms of talent, especially given the injury report.
Entering play, Houston is tied for the 3rd-best record in the entire NFL, but their (+9) point differential ranks only 15th. Even more troubling, the Texans haven’t played many good teams. Two of their wins came against Anthony Richardson, who has since been benched for Joe Flacco. The Texans beat Caleb Williams in his first career road start, the hapless Jaguars by only 4 points, the Bills on a week when they were missing multiple key pieces, and the bottom-feeding Patriots. Wins all count the same in the standings, but they aren’t all weighted equally when looking at what to expect going forward.
Meanwhile, the Jets own the 3rd-worst record in the NFL, but their (-20) point differential ranks 20th – only 5 spots worse than the Texans. Aaron Rodgers and company have suffered some terrible luck so far in 2024. They lost to the Broncos because of a missed field goal, to the Bills because of TWO missed field goals, and the Patriots because of a missed field goal and missed extra point. Put another way, this team isn’t far away from being a much more respectable 4–5 or 5-4.
This line isn’t a mistake. The correct team is favored here.
PICK: Jets ML (-125, DraftKings)
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