The Fantasy Grout: Week 10
Here at the Fantasy Grout, we focus on the cheap players necessary to make the high salary studs fit, and as such, we share a sacred kinship with the little things in life. Looked at through the prism of hours of research, clicking in all those line-ups, monitoring injuries, more research, tweaking line-ups, final submissions, late swaps and reporting, the enjoyment of soaking in the games, especially those late-in-the-week sweats, can certainly be considered “little”. But in life, it is the little things that matter.
For those new to this space, I am Luke Louison (GiantBallofOil), part of Team KillaB (KillaB2482). This past Monday, my two partners and I had the pleasure of sweating out the Colts at the Giants, and what a sweat it was! I thought I would go through the Anatomy of a Sweat, just to make sure you’re getting the same enjoyment out of yours that we get out of ours.
(Not mentioned below is RotoGrinders’ live show, Night Sweats, a great listen. Also, if you don’t have sweats of your own, I can’t more highly recommend Dan Back’s podcast, Fantasy Fix, as he’ll let you know which grinders have a sweat to follow.)
Step 1: The Stakes
With any good sweat, it has to mean something. This can vary greatly, person to person. The key is to know what is on the line, whether it is taking down that big tourney, having your cash line-up cross the 50/50 threshold, or just beating your grandma. Yes, grandmas are playing now. DFS: the new #YOLO.
For Team KillaB, just a couple weeks ago we realized we needed a vacation, so we started focusing on the qualifiers for the destination tournaments. Before that, we had been dropping our main GPP line-up in, and maybe a few more hastily crafted line-ups, if there was overlay. At FanDuel though, the word overlay is whispered, as if you were mentioning Voldemort at Hogwarts. There is overlay so infrequently that if you want those seats, you have to face a full tournament. We resolved to take on the field, and we threw our cash line-up and main GPP line-up, along with 10 derivations, into the qualifier hat and hoped our name was pulled.
Coming into Monday night, things were looking exceptionally sweaty. For the $1 Million Playboy Mansion tourney on November 23rd, 13 of the 75 seats were on the line in week 9 (2 at $535, 2 at $50, 5 at $5, and 4 at $2). We were sitting on both of the $50 seats with two separate line-ups, and we were within range of a $5 and a $535 seat. More important yet, we had a puncher’s chance at two of the seven FanDuel Fantasy Football Championship (FFFC) seats available week 9. Those seats would allow you to be among the 100 total entrants, competing for a $10 million prize pool on December 14th in Vegas. Then there was the DraftKings Millionaire Maker, which we didn’t have a shot at, or so we thought…
(NOTE – Even acknowledging that overlay wasn’t coming, we unfortunately still didn’t enter early enough Sunday morning to get the alternate GPP line-ups into the $2 Playboy Qualifier or the $2 or $5 FFFC Qualifier, costing us sweats. Congrats to the early birds, who did get their line-ups in, and got their worms.)
Step 2: The Environment
Some sweat better alone. Some, in groups. Some sweat better in public. Some, in private. Some sweat better sober. Some, less sober. Some just sweat. Team KillaB believes that the family that grinds together, sweats together, so we called up a Google Hangout, just to enjoy the agony and ecstasy as a group. Beer wasn’t not involved!
Step 3: The Moments
This is the good stuff. If you’re chasing, it might be a quick strike that lifts you off your feet or the methodical stalk, one five-yard run at a time. Many times though, it is the plays that were called back, the incompletion right before the touchdown, or the hundred other forms of what-could-have-been, that define the sweat. If the prize is yours to lose, it is still tense, but with sporadic jabs of agony, rather than joy. Oh, and that agony uppercut. Oof.
We were basically sweating Odell Beckham Jr., who had the ability to defend one of our Playboy seats, and earn us a third, along with 2 FFFC invites. Then, there was Larry Donnell, who could take down a fourth Playboy spot for us. Also, we had an Andrew Luck/TY Hilton combo left in the Millionaire Maker, but we were down 68, in 4,000th place. No need to sweat the pipe dreams… That is until Luck hit Hilton on a 31 yard score early in the third quarter, and it became apparent that of the 4,000+ entries ahead of us, none had the Colts most prolific tandem. To quote, oh-so-appropriately, Lloyd Christmas, “So you’re telling me there’s a chance!”
For Beckham, our main sweat, we figured we needed to hit 22 to win both FFFC seats, so we were feeling pretty pessimistic with his near-nothing first half. But there was still hope! Sure enough, things started looking up when he caught a 59 yarder to start the Giants’ first drive of the second half. Most of the work he did for us, though, was later yet, after anyone who cared about the outcome of the game had resigned to his fate.
Along the way, Beckham did earn us our third Playboy seat, something we maybe had taken for granted, as we had bigger
fish to fry. The value of those two FFFC seats was $140,000, and we could taste it. (It was fishy, obviously.) Over and over in the second half, Eli looked Beckham’s way, and each time, we all raced to cite how much more we needed. Four for Sixty will do it. Six point eight left, any reception over 63. Just a touchdown. Any touchdown. Tension mounted.
When the Giants got the ball with 6:11 seconds left, down 40-17, we figured this was it, our Waterloo. Manning hit Beckham for a 14 yarder on 3rd-and-10 and an 18 yarder on 2nd-and-1. Next thing we knew, the Giants were on the one. We needed 2.3 and 2.6, respectively, from Beckham to win both FFFC seats. Just a score. Also, thanks to a Larry Donnell touchdown on the prior drive, a second TD catch from him would lock up a fourth Playboy spot. Instead, someone named Corey Washington caught the score. Deflating.
The Colts got the ball with 3:11 left, needing just one first down to end an already decided game. But, they didn’t get that first down, as a 3rd-and-6 went for only five! Hope! The Giants had the ball back with 2:52, and miraculously, Tom Coughlin was sending Eli back out there.
We were anxious, no longer needing to cite what we needed; it was committed to memory at that point. Two Point Six, a 21 yard reception, with half point-per-reception scoring. After three straight incompletions, this was it, fourth down. Then, Bingo! Eli hit Beckham for a 10 yarder to extend the drive, and now we needed only a single six yard reception.
But wait. In a blow-out, the Colts were challenging whether Beckham had made the first down? No. No! Replays seemed to show him close, but short. The only hope, as the referee trotted out on the field, was for him to say “Call Stands,” meaning the results of the replay were inconclusive. No such luck. The Giants were short and had turned it over on downs.
Oh, and about that $1,000,000? We never did get that close. Hilton didn’t catch another ball after his third quarter touchdown. Luck poured on two more scores, to get us within 18 points in 19th place. Unfortunately, the game just wasn’t close enough. Our (Colts’) horseshoe didn’t produce enough (Andrew) Luck. That didn’t stop Team KillaB, on the Colts’ clock-killing drive, 3rd-and-19 from the Giants 48, from whispering that any TD over 29 yards to Hilton would win us a seven figures. Really, that’s all that you need for a good sweat: Hope.
As you’re crafting your line-ups, start with the Matt Fortes and Antonio Browns and fit your Fantasy Grout pieces around them to make it work. Don’t forget to add in a heaping helping of hope! It makes all the difference.
Quarterbacks
Not unrelated to the success above, the Fantasy Grout had its best week of the year (despite Travaris Cadet, 8MileAllstars). Gang Grout went for 3.403 PT/$K, while the Bucket List even topped that, at 3.660. Don’t believe me? Check here.
At the quarterback position, pricing is similar to last week. Either 15 or 16 starting quarterbacks are not Grout eligible (above $6,500) this week, depending on Tony Romo’s availability. That is out of a possible 26, with Luck, Brady and Rivers on bye. The Foles injury dropped the Eagles starting gig into the low priced tier, as well. Of the eleven we have to choose from, one stands out…
Matt Ryan at TB, $6,300 – We aim to learn here in Grout-land. When a top shelf quarterback meanders down to $6,500 or below, we play them while we can. Another rule is that you play QBs against Tampa Bay’s defense. That makes this Ryan play like a 2002 Jay-Z and R Kelly album, The Best of Both Worlds.
Defending this play doesn’t take a lot of work, so I’ll just cite his stat line, as of midway through the 3rd quarter, in the Bucs and Falcons Week 3 tilt: 21 of 24, 286, 3 TD. Then, I’ll drop the mike.
Left in the Bucket
Josh McCown v ATL, $5,000 – If a streaker runs on the field in this game, an Eminem lyric offers the perfect description: “And when the police come, they effin’ shoot it out with them too!”
Running Backs
Like I mentioned last week, it’s all about TDs in the running back Grout space. That continues to be the case, but fortunately, there is a little bit of dependable volume you can rely on this week. Twelve starting running backs are ineligible, priced greater than $5,500, leaving just fourteen starters and all the back-ups, of which to choose. This is to be expected, as the area between the tiles is always the grimiest part.
Justin Forsett v TEN, $5,000 – The key statistic from his 15.5 point performance in a blowout loss to the Steelers was the eight targets. For a couple weeks there, pictures of Forsett’s receptions were showing up on milk cartons. I hope whoever returned them got a hefty reward. What’s that? You said Joe Flacco makes how much per game? $1.25 million? Then, just give the reward to the cows.
Chris Ivory v PIT, $4,300 – Is it possible that the DraftKings pricing algorithm has a But-It’s-The-Jets price lowering clause built right in? Otherwise, someone has to manually go in and “fix” Ivory’s price each week. He has three touchdowns in the last three weeks, despite facing the 4th and 2nd toughest RB match-ups, the last two. On a team that runs on the greatest percentage of their plays, I expect Rex Ryan to tickle the Ivory, in order to play keep-away from Big Ben.
Bobby Rainey v ATL, $4,400 – The gap between the 32nd defense against fantasy running backs, Atlanta, and the 31st, , Carolina, is so wide, that the Discovery Channel just offered Nik Wallenda a deal to walk across it on national TV. Among Atlanta’s “feats” are giving up the most rushing TDs to running backs (3 more than the next closest) and the most receiving yards per game to running backs. Oh, and as I mentioned last week, the best thing Rainey has going for him is that he’s NOT
Doug Martin.
Left in the Bucket
Darren Sproles v CAR, $4,800 – When Nik Wallenda does cross the gap, there’s plenty of running back fantasy points on the other side.
Darren McFadden v DEN, $4,400 – Recommending McFadden: Forever Unclean!
Jonathan Stewart at PHI, $3,400 – The passing down back, if you catch my drift.
Wide Receivers
Seventeen “#1” wide receivers and six “#2s” were above $5,000 last week. This week, the totals are fifteen and eight, so not much change. “Not much change” might as well be the title of the recommendations below. What can I say? I’m stubborn.
Kelvin Benjamin v CAR, $4,200 – Is it possible for a player to be owned in more than 100% of leagues? I get that the scouts were right and that he has a propensity to drop a ball or two. Still, here’s a list of people who had more targets in the end zone last week:
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…
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Justin Hunter at BAL, $4,000 – “My name is Luke Louison, and I have a Justin Hunter problem. It started in the preseason, when he blew up the stat sheets with touchdown after touchdown. It should have stopped when it ceased being fun during the 2-for-26s and 1-for-12s of the early season, but it didn’t. Then, he started mixing with Zach Mettenberger, and it made it even better! Now, with no Jimmy Smith to stop it, I’m helpless. My name is Luke Louison, and I have a problem.”
Eric Decker v PIT, $4,900 – After a couple weeks, I feel like I now can pick Percy Harvin out of a line-up. Still, it isn’t like Decker was untargeted in the Jets’ loss to the Chiefs last week. In fact, the lowest target number he has had in the last five games was seven. With the way the Jet offense revolves around running the ball and play action, I suggest you play Decker this week, ‘cause he’s going to get some action.
Left in the Bucket
Michael Floyd v STL, $4,100 – Trust the targets. O. Floyd is still the 1A there.
Torrey Smith v TEN, $3,500 – Why can’t we just start “Smith” and be done with this Steve v Torrey guessing game?
Dwayne Bowe at BUF, $4,500 – Alex Smith can’t go the rest of the year without throwing a TD to a WR, can he?
Tight Ends
It speaks to how dreadful the tight end position is this year when Travis Kelce, who has had more than four catches once and more than 67 yards twice, is the third highest priced this week. I am considering not starting a tight end this week, out of protest. Or disgust.
Clay Harbor v DAL, $3,200 – If you’re going to play touchdown roulette, which is what starting a Grout tight end really is, I like the guy playing versus a team that has allowed eight touchdowns to tight ends in nine weeks. Also, it allows us to play Pick Your Own Pun, where I offer you three options to finish this paragraph, and you pick the one you want!
Door #1: If the tight end position isn’t going to produce, at least Clay is a safe Harbor for most of your salary dollars.
Door #2: With tight end being quick sand for your budget, you’re better off placing your $3,200 on Clay.
Door #3: If there’s one crime you WANT to be convicted of, it’s Harbor-ing a known tight end against the Cowboys.
Left in the Bucket
Gary Barnidge at CIN, $3,000 – You know you’ve given up on picks when you recommend a non-kicker named “Gary”.