The Football Diaries: Week 16
Week 16 was all about the big $3.1 million tournament on DraftKings. I had four teams entered in the tournament, so here is how it looked from my end.
I believe the decision-making process is the most important thing in DFS and not necessarily the actual outcome. Hopefully reading this can help with roster construction in some way, either through my good rosters or even learning from my bad ones.
Player Breakdown/Analysis
Quarterbacks – My goal was to put the four of the best QBs each on one team. This is not something I typically do (pay up for all expensive QBs), but I felt like that was the proper strategy this week, seeing as how there weren’t any low dollar options I liked. In addition, the premier guys had fantastic matchups. I thought the odds were very high that one or two of these QBs would blow up for a huge game. Instead, the opposite happened. They all struggled and it was the mid-tier guys, Russell Wilson and Ryan Tannehill, which won GPPs for DFS players. I could have owned 20 teams and I still wouldn’t have had Wilson or Tannehill on a single team, so it was never going to happen for me this week.
Jamaal Charles – Initially he wasn’t on my radar, but then I started reading about how good this matchup looked and I wanted to make room on a team for him. I’ve seen Charles single-handedly win people a million dollars before and he is matchup proof anyways, so I thought it was a good idea to make room for him.
Mark Ingram – I loved Ingram this week, as evidenced by the fact that I used him on two teams. He had the matchup working in his favor and I figured the Saints would be putting this game away early enough to grab Ingram some bonus clock-burning carries in the fourth quarter. It’s something I’ve seen him capitalize on in the past, but that scenario never materialized. What was extra disappointing was the TD he scored in the first minute of the game, as it looked like a monster game could happen. I was ecstatic when I saw the 5.5% owned next to his name. I thought I hit gold.
Fred Jackson – Oakland’s run defense has been bad and Jackson was getting the lion’s share of the work. The ultimate end result was fine, with 19 points, but him getting only six carries was a bit shocking.
Tre Mason – For the modest price tag, you can live with Mason’s 15.3 points. I could see the big 46% owned coming from a mile away though. I adjusted by taking Mason out of one lineup and moving in Latavius Murray at the same price. Murray ended up being only 4.8% owned, so it was a solid move in theory. They ended up scoring similar fantasy points, but if Murray breaks a long one then the lower ownership would have separated you from the field, just like Russell Wilson separated those lucky few from the pack. If Mason blows up, you still have to contend with 46% of the field that owned him. It didn’t matter this time, but occasionally it pays off.
Lamar Miller – I loved Miller this week with this matchup and this price. The price was actually a detriment though, because it spiked his ownership levels.
Jordy Nelson – I was hoping that the game being on the road would drive down Nelson’s ownership levels, since he’s so dominant at home. That didn’t happen, as everyone had the same idea: that Nelson and Aaron Rodgers would kill this secondary.
Brandon LaFell – LaFell is not normally a guy I want on my team, but when the news came down Edelman was out, I thought it would bring a ton of extra targets his way. This is a bad Jets secondary and a Brady/Gronk/LaFell stack seemed like an easy call and a base that had to be covered, considering this exact stack won people a ton of money earlier in the season
Jarvis Landry – I thought it might be Landry, not Wallace, that would snag a couple short TD passes in this game. He’s been receiving a boatload of targets recently and had a nice matchup.
Donte Moncrief – What happened here? I still can’t process it. He was on all four teams, because for his price he was too explosive to pass up. With T.Y. Hilton out, he was set to be a target hog in a game that had shootout written all over it. The thing about WRs is that their production is directly tied to the QB. In this game, Luck was really bad and it affected Moncrief in a negative way. He still has uber talent and he’ll get another chance to shine in the future. The 48% ownership levels were very high and you couldn’t survive to win a tournament with a 2.5-point performance on your roster.
Andre Johnson – I was hoping for a little of that 2013 magic with Keenum to Andre one more time. It looked good on the first couple drives with three catches for 57 yards, but then he settled in and only put up a 6 for 65 line. He didn’t destroy your team at that price, but you would have needed to surround him with good players, and I didn’t.