The GPP Scene - Attacking Coors Field Days
You wake up in the morning, grab a cup of coffee, and load up your internet browser. You navigate your way to the various baseball websites to check the schedule for the day. Somewhere along the line, you see a simple thing ending in: @ Rockies. How does this make you feel? Excited? Perturbed? Indifferent? Let’s explore this a little bit.
Welcome back to the GPP Scene, a weekly article series here on RotoGrinders where I will recap the week that was in my daily fantasy tournament exploits. Generally, this article is a place where I go through my entries in the $10 Line Drive on FanDuel, but I have been saving a topic in my back pocket for a while. I also only got three days of entries in the Line Drive last week (oops!), so I figured this was as good a time as any to bust out the Plan B.
That topic, of course, is Coors – not the beer, but the ballpark. What do we do when games are played at Coors Field? Obviously, players in games at Coors are highly owned most days, and this creates a new dynamic for tournament play. In my opinion, there are five distinct strategies you can invoke when the Rockies are playing at home. Let’s take a look at each one to see if we can figure out which one is best:
STRATEGY #1 – DON’T PLAY
Well, this is a novel concept, isn’t it? If you don’t like the competitive balance of DFS when the Rockies are hosting games, nobody is forcing you to spend your real life dollars in contests on that specific day. There are several players that use this strategy, and it does show some discipline on their part. If it is a split slate day with early games and late games, you can choose to play the slate that doesn’t include the Rockies. That becomes a win-win situation as you can avoid the Coors Field game but still get your DFS action for the day. This is a serious topic; I am not throwing this in as a joke. If you feel like you are at a disadvantage when Coors games are on the slate, just avoid it!
STRATEGY #2 – FIRE A SINGLE ENTRY, PLAY COORS
This tends to be where most players fall. Through most discussions I have been involved in over the last few years, I have gotten the sense that single entry players will generally fire their “optimal” team into their contests for the day without regard to ownership percentages, even in tournaments. After all, there is nothing worse than over-analyzing your single entry and costing yourself money in the process. Generally, the optimal team for a slate that includes a game at Coors Field will include players from that game. Most games in Colorado are high scoring, of course, so this is generally the right play. It’s also the safest play. The problem here lies in the fact that even if you have exposure to the Coors game, these players will be highly owned. in a large field tournament, it’s very difficult to have the “right” combination of Coors players in order to take that tournament down.
I will admit, these are the slates where I feel the multi-entry player has an advantage. Being able to “cover more bases” does tend to be more relevant when Coors Field is involved. I don’t have any statistical data to back this up, but it’s just what my general sense is regarding the matter. Single entry players tend to agree with this (and this is a big reason — though not the only reason — why many of them don’t care for the current multi-entry rules).
STRATEGY #3 – FIRE A SINGLE ENTRY, FADE COORS
In my opinion, this is the best combination of low-risk and high-upside to play a Coors Field slate. Fading Coors Field with multiple entries has the potential to cost you a ton of money if the game is high-scoring, but yet it can pay off handsomely if you get it right. However, that is certainly not low-risk. How do you combine the high upside with a low risk? Just play a single entry. Even though I am a multi-entry guy, I do often play single entries on days where there are games in Colorado. This is especially true when there are two really bad pitchers going at Coors. On days like that, players like Troy Tulowitzki can be upwards of 50-60% owned in some contests. The highest upside way to play that slate is to fade the game. The fact that it carries a lot of risk is what makes the single entry concept more sensible. If you fade the Coors game and it happens to be low scoring, your odds of cashing increase dramatically.
Think of this on the flip side. If you PLAY the Coors game and it does happen to be high scoring, you’re still not guaranteed a cash because those players are so highly owned. Other players are more knowledgeable on single entry mechanics than I am, but my thought process leads me to believe that if you are a single-entry tournament player, you should fade Coors Field if you choose to play the slates that include games there. Remember, this is for tournaments only. In no way, shape, or form am I telling you to fade these players in your cash games. That would be a mistake.
Single entry players, feel free to weigh in with your thoughts on this topic. Am I way off base here?
STRATEGY #4 – FIRE MULTIPLE ENTRIES, PLAY COORS
As I wrote above, I do feel that the multiple entry approach has a leg up on days where Coors Field games are in play. If you decide to play multiple entries and roster players from the game at Coors, you can take a number of different approaches. The first would be to play several Coors Field players on every roster, therefore diversifying your exposure to the game and being almost guaranteed to hit something if the game is high scoring. The more common approach would be to stack the Coors Field game on some entries while fading the game on some other entries. This allows you to cover the bases of the game being high scoring and the game being low scoring. Of course, this isn’t the easiest thing to do, as you still have to get your pitchers and other batters right. It is, however, the safest strategy to employ on days where Colorado’s home ballpark is in play.
STRATEGY #5 – FIRE MULTIPLE ENTRIES, FADE COORS
If you are going for the most upside with your tournament entries, play a multiple entry strategy and do a complete fade of the Coors Field game. This will have your stomach in knots for the entire nine innings of the game in Colorado, but it has the potential to be highly rewarding. The ironic part about the strategy is that even though you don’t have any exposure to the game at Coors, it is still likely the most important game to determine your fate for the day. As mentioned above, the players are so highly owned that the Colorado game alone will swing tournaments. If you fade Coors and the game is 14-12, you probably aren’t cashing much with your fade. If you fade Coors and the game is 3-2, you are probably cashing some entries no matter what your roster construction is. That’s the unique dynamic that Coors Field presents, and playing the fade is an ultimate high-risk, high-reward strategy. There will be days where this strategy costs you every dollar you put into play… even if you have 888 entries in a tournament on that specific day.
The topic of Coors Field has been discussed more in recent days, as the Rockies are wrapping up a long homestand. In addition, a lot of the games on this homestand have been very high scoring. If you have played the “fade Coors” approach lately, your bankroll has probably taken a hit. Just remember that everything goes in cycles, so a five, six, or seven game sample size certainly isn’t large enough to draw conclusions.
I think there are a few different ways you can go when Coors Field is in play, and I certainly see the merit in avoiding the slates if you choose to do that. The real question that remains is — what exactly is the OPTIMAL strategy to use in these cases, if you do decide to play? I haven’t been able to figure that out yet. Therefore, maybe “don’t play” is the right answer? I’m only kidding.
Sort of.