The GPP Scene: Year 2, Week 1

by Justin Van Zuiden (stlcardinals84) Last Updated 2015-04-21 19:15:16

I was pleasantly surprised to see the interest that was shown in this column a year ago, and the guys at RotoGrinders have been kind enough to let me blather on about it again this season. Welcome back to the column we like to call “The GPP Scene,” where I will try to survey the FanDuel tournament landscape throughout the course of the MLB season.

Here’s the way it will work. I will enter the $10 FanDuel Line Drive GPP five days a week with three different teams, and only those three teams. The teams will be composed of the following:

Team #1 – Two-team stacks with 4 hitters from each team, finished off by whatever pitcher I like best that fits within my remaining cap. ¹
Team #2 – My favorite expensive pitcher of the day with a team of lesser hitters.
Team #3 – A total punt at pitcher surrounded by a team of better hitters.

¹ – This is my general GPP strategy on FD.

I’ll document the results of each team along with my profit and loss and return on investment as the days go by, with some final analysis for the week at the end of the article. Let’s get to the first week of results!

MONDAY, APRIL 6

After a really good opening night a year ago, I was hoping to get things rolling right off the bat again in 2015. Alas, the exact opposite occurred.

Team #1 – Milwaukee (vs. COL) and Philadelphia (vs. BOS) mini stacks with Tanaka at pitcher vs. Toronto. I went with one popular stack in Milwaukee and one off the radar stack in Philadelphia, and then I combined that with a boom or bust pitcher play in Tanaka. Absolutely nothing worked here. For the first time in the history of this column — that’s right, it didn’t happen a single time last year — both teams that I stacked got shut out on the same day. That’s pretty much all I need to say about this squad.

• FINISH: 10.25 PTS / 3391 OF 3499 FOR $0.

Team #2 – It certainly can’t get any worse than that last team. I used Max Scherzer as my ace of the day, knowing that the public would be on Clayton Kershaw. This worked out fairly well, as Scherzer pitched 7 2/3 innings, racked up 8 strikeouts, and didn’t give up an earned run. Unfortunately, due to some shoddy defense and a lack of offensive support, he actually finished the day with a loss next to his name. Not getting those four bonus points for a win really hurts on FanDuel. Ironically, the only run the Nationals got was on a Bryce Harper solo home run, and I had Harper on this team, too. That’s about where the success ended. I used Adam Lind and Scooter Gennett as value plays on this team, and as you can see from above, the Brewers bats weren’t good. Nobody else stepped up on this squad, which left it in the top 60% of all teams but short of the GPP cash line.

• FINISH: 31.41 PTS / 1381 OF 3499 FOR $0.

Team #3 – Despite second guessing myself a bunch of times, I stuck with Henderson Alvarez as my punt pitcher of the day, mainly because he got to face the supposedly anemic Atlanta offensive attack. I have reservations about Alvarez because he doesn’t strike anyone out, and I should have listened to my gut. He pitched respectably, only giving up two runs in seven innings, but he only had two strikeouts and didn’t get a win. It didn’t matter anyway, because eight of my nine hitters were held to less than one point. That includes big hitters like Ryan Braun, Giancarlo Stanton, and Mark Teixeira. This just wasn’t my day.

• FINISH: 14.25 PTS / 3245 OF 3499 FOR $0.

TUESDAY, APRIL 7

Team #1 – Milwaukee (vs COL) and San Francisco (at ARI) mini stacks with Mat Latos at pitcher vs. Braves. Hey, the drubbing of the stacks continues! Mat Latos didn’t make it out of the first inning against that maligned Braves offense, and it was impossible to overcome his -6.34 point score. The Giants did manage six runs against Arizona, but the Brewers didn’t do much and Latos’ performance was simply too big of a hole to dig out of.

• FINISH: 8.66 PTS / 2693 OF 2873 FOR $0.

Team #2 – There weren’t many aces to choose from with all of them going on Monday, so I opted for Zack Greinke despite a matchup against the new-look Padres. He had a solid outing, giving up just one run in six innings. Once again one of my pitchers got no run support, and Greinke was saddled with a tough luck loss. He also only struck out four batters, so his FanDuel total was a meager nine points. This team still came close to cashing, thanks to 10 points from Buster Posey and 4+ from Troy Tulowitzki and Sam Fuld. Just a few more points from Greinke would have been enough to do the trick.

• FINISH: 31.75 PTS / 880 OF 2873 FOR $0.

Team #3 – I was very comfortable with Nathan Karns as the punt pitcher of the day. He fits the bill that is perfect for GPP’s as he is very cheap and he can give you a lot of strikeout upside. Unforunately, it didn’t work out great as he struggled with his control and gave up 6 runs in 5 2/3 innings. The big bats, however, were great. This team also had Buster Posey, who put up ten points as I mentioned above. It also had two Diamondbacks hitters in Paul Goldschmidt and David Peralta. They combined for three hits, a home run, three RBI’s, and four runs scored. Angel Pagan chipped in with a few points along with Troy Tulowitzki. If Karns would have been good, this team could have threatened for a top spot on the leaderboard, but I’m happy to get on the board with a cash.

• FINISH: 43.41 PTS / 226 OF 2873 FOR $30.

WEDNESDAY, APRIL 8

Team #1 – Milwaukee (again, vs. COL) and Cleveland (at HOU) mini stacks with Hisashi Iwakuma at pitcher vs. the Angels. I really need to stop stacking the Brewers. They disappointed in this whole series, and my four Milwaukee bats totaled just 6.75 fantasy points. The Indians bats were even worse, as Jason Kipnis, Brandon Moss, and Yan Gomes combined to go 2-for-12 with just two singles. That’s a total of negative 0.5 fantasy points. I also have no idea why I threw an ailing Iwakuma in at pitcher to fit these stacks. It’s been an abysmal three days for Team #1.

• FINISH: 21.50 PTS / 1642 OF 2200 FOR $0.

Team #2 – With this being the third day of the season, the choices of top flight pitching were slim. Jordan Zimmermann was the obvious choice against the Mets, and I was surprised to see him at just 5.2% owned. This paid off well, as he finished with 13 fantasy points and logged a win in this home game. Here’s the problem: the bats were terrible. Adam Lind was great with 10.75 fantasy points, but the rest of the bats totaled less than four points. That’s not going to get this team into cash territory.

• FINISH: 27.25 PTS / 1199 OF 2200 FOR $0.

Team #3 – Well, I used Jeremy Hellickson as the punt pitcher of the day, and it didn’t work. He got knocked around by the Giants, and I also tossed a few of the bigger name Milwaukee and Cleveland bats on this team, too. Not a single player on this roster logged more than four fantasy points, and that’s about all the discussion that’s needed here. This one never had a chance.

• FINISH: 9.33 PTS / 2162 OF 2200 FOR $0.

SATURDAY, APRIL 11

Team #1 – Chicago Cubs (at COL) and Texas (vs. HOU) mini stacks with Dillon Gee at pitcher vs. Atlanta. Well, I really need to stop picking on the Braves offense. They are performing better than advertised, and Gee was too much of a stretch. I am having a problem with picking pitchers I would normally avoid just because they are facing Atlanta. Like Alvarez on Monday, Gee is a tough pitcher to target because he doesn’t rack up strikeouts. The stacks were decent as the Cubs scored nine runs and Texas scored six, but I missed some of the big performers on those teams. In addition, Gee’s two point performance again provided too big of a hole to overcome.

• FINISH: 27.50 PTS / 802 OF 2129 FOR $0.

Team #2 – I took a ride on the Clayton Kershaw train alongside 18.3% of my closest friends, and the results were less than ideal. Kershaw does not appear sharp in the early going, and he labored through 6 1/3 innings while allowing five earned runs and being thoroughly outpitched by rookie Archie Bradley. Kershaw’s high $11,900 price tag meant scalping on all the bats, and it showed in the results. Three of my hitters were at zero or negative points, and the whole group combined for just 1 RBI. This team was not good.

• FINISH: 18.08 PTS / 1495 OF 2129 FOR $0.

Team #3 – Hello, Jimmy Nelson! I hyped him up as the best value pitcher of the night on GrindersLive given his strikeout upside and matchup against a Pirates team that was playing without top bat Andrew McCutchen. Nelson’s final line was better than I would have ever imagined: 7 scoreless innings, nine strikeouts, and an easy win. That adds up to 20 FanDuel points and a great start. Starlin Castro and Jorge Soler were two solid bats on this squad, and six of the bats logged at least 3 fantasy points. Nelson’s start combined with a serviceable performance from the big bats provided more than enough cushion for this team to cash.

• FINISH: 44.50 PTS / 76 OF 2129 FOR $40.

SUNDAY, APRIL 12

Team #1 – Detroit (at CLE) and St. Louis (at CIN) mini stacks with Nathan Karns at pitcher vs. Marlins. Since I cashed with a Karns team earlier in the week, I felt obligated to use him again in order to get two high-dollar stacks here. He threw a gem and picked up a win in this one, logging 16 fantasy points in the process. The stacks performed well, too, as the Tigers and Cardinals combined for 15 runs on the day. Jhonny Peralta, J.D. Martinez, and Ian Kinsler were all big time bats on the day, and this was a much needed boost for Team #1. It was nice to see a cash here.

• FINISH: 47.25 PTS / 212 OF 1985 FOR $30.

Team #2 – I opted for Max Scherzer as the ace hurler again today after seeing the Phillies throw out a AAA lineup for this game. I wasn’t alone here, as he was 21% owned. He had a solid game with eight innings pitched, just one earned run allowed, and eight strikeouts. However, the bullpen blew the win and Scherzer is still 0-1 through two starts despite a sub-1.00 ERA. The bats were decent here, and they were buoyed by a ninth inning, game-winning home run from Dexter Fowler. That helped this team tie several other teams for the final cashing spot. I ended up just getting my money back with that tie.

• FINISH: 42.75 PTS / 418 OF 1985 FOR $10.

Team #3 – Having used Karns in Team #1, I didn’t want to double down and use him again here, though I guess I should have. Most teams were back to their ace by Sunday, so there weren’t many cheap options. I used Kyle Lohse for $7,000, figuring he had to be better than he was in his first start. He was decidedly average and logged 7.33 FanDuel points. The bats were very good here, too. Led by 11.25 points from Matt Carpenter, this team almost snuck into cash territory. It would have been the first time that all three teams cashed on the same day in the history of the GPP Scene series. In the end, I fell just a point short.

• FINISH: 41.83 PTS / 476 OF 1985 FOR $0.

Final Results: Week One

My Analysis

Even through just one week, you can see some of the same trends that came up a year ago. Team #2 is your typical cash game squad. It will show lower “high” scores and higher “low” scores, meaning there is less variance in that squad. Teams #1 and #3 will have wild swings of scores, and that’s why those seem to be better GPP approaches to play. They also had the best overall results for week one despite having sub 10.00 scores on a few days. Obviously, we’re still dealing with a small sample size through just five days, but this is the same theory that came out of last year’s articles, too.

Despite the overall loss, this wasn’t a bad week. Four cashes out of fifteen teams is decent, and the only thing that was lacking was a top flight finish. Hopefully that is something that is in store for Week #2. As always, thanks for reading!