The GPP Scene: Year 2, Week 3

by Justin Van Zuiden (stlcardinals84) Last Updated 2015-05-06 14:37:36

Hey everyone, welcome back to the third week of the GPP Scene. While it’s fun writing this column no matter how things are going, I don’t like seeing the red numbers in the table at the bottom, so let’s see if we can turn that around a little bit in Week #3.

Here’s the way it will work. I will enter the $10 FanDuel Line Drive GPP five days a week with three different teams, and only those three teams. The teams will be composed of the following:

Team #1 – Two-team stacks with 4 hitters from each team, finished off by whatever pitcher I like best that fits within my remaining cap. ¹
Team #2 – My favorite expensive pitcher of the day with a team of lesser hitters.
Team #3 – A total punt at pitcher surrounded by a team of better hitters.

¹ – This is my general GPP strategy on FD.

I’ll document the results of each team along with my profit and loss and return on investment as the days go by, with some final analysis for the week at the end of the article. Let’s get to the third week of results!

MONDAY, APRIL 20

Team #1 – I opted for San Diego and Colorado mini-stacks with the two teams facing off at Coors Field. Getting all the prime hitters in this game forced me to go cheap at pitcher with the stack squad, which landed me on Kendall Graveman. That didn’t work out too well as Graveman got rocked by the Angels. Half of the stack did okay as San Diego put 14 runs on the board, but Colorado lagged behind and Graveman dug me too deep of a hole (sorry, I couldn’t resist the awful pun). This was a middle-of-the-pack team that wasn’t good enough tonight.

• FINISH: 29.75 PTS / 1925 OF 3005 FOR $0.

Team #2 – Despite some weather concerns, I stuck with Jake Arrieta as my ace of the day as there were very few solid pitching options available. His price wasn’t overly outrageous despite him being the most expensive pitcher on the board. This worked out just fine as Arrieta pitched a solid game and picked up a win, and the bats on this team came through as well. I had three Padres on team, too, and they all chipped in with extra base hits (Norris, Middlebrooks, and Gyorko). I needed a value play to fit Arrieta in there, and Ryan Raburn was a perfect minimum salary punt who easily paid off his salary with an early home run. Finally, Team #2 is on the board.

• FINISH: 49.00 PTS / 275 OF 3005 FOR $25.

Team #3 – The punt pitcher decision was easy for me today, as I was very comfortable with the under-rated Anthony DeSclafani as my hurler. He dominated the scuffling Brewers to the tune of 17 FanDuel points, which had this team headed in the right direction. In addition, two of my big bats had solid games as Robinson Cano and Kyle Seager did some damage for the Mariners. Unfortunately, Miguel Cabrera, Matt Joyce, and Kole Calhoun all went hitless on the night and this team fell just short of cashing.

• FINISH: 41.25 PTS / 807 OF 3005 FOR $0.

WEDNESDAY, APRIL 22

I won the Super Slugger on FanDuel on this night for a cool $30,000 payday. Sadly, the second thing I did was rush to see if the winning roster was one of the three I crafted for purposes of this contest. Alas, it was not. That team would have won this $10 GPP by six points for a $2,000 payout. That would have covered over 13 weeks of entry fees for this article series!

Team #1 – Houston (vs. Seattle) and Arizona (vs. Texas) mini stacks with Archie Bradley at pitcher vs. Texas. Since I went with Bradley at pitcher, I could only take three Arizona bats, which led me to Evan Longoria as a fill-in at third base. Bradley had a solid performance and picked up a win, while Arizona scored eight runs behind him. This makes me wonder if I should have thought of this strategy sooner. Obviously if you stack the team that your pitcher throws for, and that stack hits, there’s a good chance the pitcher also picks up a win for another four-point bonus. The Houston stack wasn’t great, as they only scored two runs, but Chris Carter hit his first home run of the year. When combined with the Arizona performances, that was enough to help this team into a low-end cash.

• FINISH: 41.75 PTS / 213 OF 2298 FOR $30.

Team #2 – Clayton Kershaw was the obvious choice as the ace pitcher of the day, and I figured maybe he could help this team put together two strong performances in a row. He delivered a solid 13 point outing, but his high salary really made me go cheap with the bats. It didn’t take me long to grow sour on this strategy again, as none of my hitters scored more than 3.25 points. I also went way too contrarian with those bats, as only Robinson Cano was more than 3% owned on the night. Let’s move along.

• FINISH: 20.75 PTS / 1696 OF 2298 FOR $0.

Team #3 – In a crazy fit of indecision, I somehow ended up with the 0.6% owned Aaron Sanchez as my punt pitcher despite a matchup against the hefty bats of the Orioles. He exceeded my expectations as he hurled 5 1/3 innings, allowed just two runs, and picked up the much-needed win to boost his FanDuel score. However, I was just on the wrong bats on this night outside of my stacks. Salvador Perez, Kyle Seager, Andrew McCutchen, and most of the other bats were all disappointing for this team, too.

• FINISH: 24.33 PTS / 1386 OF 2298 FOR $0.

THURSDAY, APRIL 23

This was a short slate night with just four games, so the options were somewhat limited. Normally I try to do larger slates for this series, but sometimes it’s fun to mix it up with a smaller one.

Team #1 – Oakland (vs. LA Angels) and Tampa Bay (vs. Boston) mini-stacks with Chris Sale at pitcher vs. Royals. Sale was easily the top pitcher on the board for Thursday night, and it showed with a whopping 41% ownership clip in this GPP. However, this team was dead in the water from the start. Oakland got shut out by a fill-in starter and Tampa Bay scored just two runs against Clay Buchholz. Toronto was the offense to own on this night, and I didn’t stack them. That spelled doom with just the four games on the slate.

• FINISH: 12.00 PTS / 1049 OF 1149 FOR $0.

Team #2 – Since Chris Sale was taken on Team #1, I decided to roll with my second favorite option of the night here, and that was Jake Odorizzi against Boston. He pitched well, but he ended up with a no decision and only logged three strikeouts. On FanDuel, that’s not going to earn you a good score even if you don’t give up many runs. It was somewhat of a shame too, as this team did have the double dong night from Manny Machado, and it was a low-scoring night. The other bats lagged behind, and Odorizzi needed to be a little better. As a result, this team was just a few points short of cashing.

• FINISH: 26.66 PTS / 391 OF 1149 FOR $0.

Team #3 – It’s easy to forget just how good Jesse Chavez was at times in 2014, but the A’s might get a chance to recall some of that magic given how bad Kendall Graveman has been as the #5 starter. Chavez got a spot start on this night and was really the only good value play out there. He gave up just one run in six innings — but as with Odorizzi — he didn’t get a win, and he didn’t strike out very many guys. In addition, Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Reyes, Steven Souza, and Desmond Jennings combined to go 0-for-16 at the plate. Swing and a miss.

• FINISH: 21.75 PTS / 660 OF 1149 FOR $0.

FRIDAY, APRIL 24

Team #1 – When I realized how cheap the Atlanta bats were, I figured this was a good night to give it a shot, so I mini-stacked Braves against Aaron Harang and the Phillies along with the Giants in Coors Field against the Rockies. Because a few bench players were starting for the Giants, I was able to get some of them on the cheap, too. That allowed me to fit in King Felix Hernandez as the pitcher on the stack squad. At roster lock time, I was feeling very comfortable about this team. Then, the games started. Atlanta got shut out by Aaron Harang. It’s a shame, because it prevented me from having a chance to enjoy Felix’s masterful complete game shutout – at least for purposes of this contest.

• FINISH: 39.25 PTS / 870 OF 2873 FOR $0.

Team #2 – Though Chris Archer takes the cake (more on him in a minute), Gerrit Cole is one of my favorite breakout candidates for 2015. He is learning how to use his pitches better every time he takes the mound, and he is primed for a large boost in strikeouts this season. I was not scared off by a matchup in a hitters’ park in Arizona, as Cole’s strikeout and ground-ball tendencies help mitigate the park factor. Obviously, Cole was my choice as the ace tonight, and it worked out well with him throwing a gem. Home runs from Jhonny Peralta and Hanley Ramirez got the bats going, and a total of six batters on this team had 4.5+ points, which is a solid feat for a team that features more value bats than the others.

• FINISH: 53.91 PTS / 77 OF 2873 FOR $40.

Team #3 – Josh Collmenter wormed his way into the punt pitcher slot for today, as he is capable of having random good games when he is generating a lot of ground balls. I regretted this decision as soon as lineups locked, with Collmenter having a tough matchup opposing Gerrit Cole. The good news is that it probably wouldn’t have mattered. I was determined to get a few of the expensive Angels bats on this team, and it didn’t work out. Pujols, Trout, and Aybar all had subpar games, which led to this team finishing near the bottom when combined with a below average game by the aforementioned Collmenter.

• FINISH: 23.00 PTS / 2325 OF 2873 FOR $0.

SUNDAY, APRIL 26

Team #1 – Tampa Bay (vs. Toronto) and LA Angels (vs. Texas) mini stacks with Francisco Liriano at pitcher vs. Diamondbacks. I was pretty happy with these choices, as I liked both teams to score runs against a hittable Mark Buehrle (Tampa Bay) and an over-performing Nick Martinez (LA Angels). I was also pleased to be able to get a good GPP pitcher in Francisco Liriano on this squad. The stacks were average, as the Angels scored four runs and the Rays scored five runs. Liriano was also solid, wrapping up his day with 17.33 FanDuel points. However, none of the bats were truly great and this squad fell just short of the cash line.

• FINISH: 42.58 PTS / 540 OF 1724 FOR $0.

Team #2 – There was no doubt that my new man-crush Chris Archer would be the ace of choice today. I’ve rostered him in some way, shape, or form for all of his starts this season, and this day would be no exception. He was fantastic again in this start against the potent Blue Jays, as he tossed seven brilliant innings, racked up seven strikeouts, and picked up a victory. My favorite bat of the day was Hanley Ramirez at $3,700 on FanDuel, and his two home runs also came in handy on this squad. Miguel Montero also homered and was a solid value play, and this team finished comfortably near the top of the standings. A few of the value bats put up duds (Mike Aviles, please stand up), or this team could have flown even further up the leaderboard.

• FINISH: 52.25 PTS / 181 OF 1724 FOR $25.

Team #3 – I wasn’t a fan of any cheap pitchers today, so I just went as cheap as I possibly could. With FanDuel’s new pricing algorithm, using Trevor Cahill basically allowed me to get any of the bats I wanted. Enter Adam Jones, Bryce Harper, Matt Carpenter, Mike Trout, and others. The bad news is that Trevor Cahill pitched like Trevor Cahill has been pitching, which is to say the results were not good. None of the big bats were overly impressive, either. My biggest mistake here was not including Hanley Ramirez on Team #3 also, since he was my favorite bat of the day on FanDuel when you factored in price. Even he probably wouldn’t have provided enough for this squad to overcome Cahill’s clunker.

• FINISH: 28.00 PTS / 1329 OF 1724 FOR $0.

Final Results: Week Two

My Analysis

I found a couple of interesting tidbits this week:

1) I am not a fan of the payout structure of this tournament. It seems like way too many people are paid out with $25, $30, or $40. It limits the upside of anyone who doesn’t finish in the top 10 since it pays out so deep now at the lower cash levels. I think that’s why I am having an easier time cashing in general, but yet I’m still down overall. Even a top 80 finish on Friday (where the field size was larger) was only good enough for $40. I could be mistaken, but it seems like this was different last year. If anyone has any thoughts on this, please leave a comment.

2) The strategy of stacking 4-and-3 while using a starting pitcher from the team with 3 bats really does intrigue me as I mention in the Wednesday write-up. I took that down as a note to file away.

3) Outside of DeSclafani, I am not happy with the punt pitchers I used this week. I think I tried to get “too cute” for some of them.

4) The final results are OK, as I cashed with at least one team on four of the five days. However, the week still came out to a small loss overall. It’s going to take a big hit at some point to get me into the green this year. I’ll stay patient with it, as the tree didn’t bear fruit until late summer last year, either.

5) It was a fantastic week for Team #2. I believe that FanDuel’s new pricing mechanics help this team the most. Bats are priced a lot softer now, so you don’t have to sacrifice as much with the bats in order to get a stud starting pitcher. It wouldn’t shock me to see this team continue to perform well as long as the pricing stays this way.