The GPP Scene: Year 2, Week 6

by Justin Van Zuiden (stlcardinals84) Last Updated 2015-05-28 19:20:44

Hey everyone, welcome back to another week of the GPP Scene. After a profitable Week 5, I was looking forward to trying to build on that as I moved into Week 6. With daily fantasy basketball pretty much out of commission now, baseball games will become harder to win, as everyone will be honing in on their MLB research a little better. In case you are unfamiliar with this series, let’s get the background out of the way:

Here’s the way it will work. I will enter the $10 FanDuel Line Drive GPP five days a week with three different teams, and only those three teams. The teams will be composed of the following:

Team #1 – Two-team stacks with 4 hitters from each team, finished off by whatever pitcher I like best that fits within my remaining cap. ¹
Team #2 – My favorite expensive pitcher of the day with a team of lesser hitters.
Team #3 – A total punt at pitcher surrounded by a team of better hitters.

¹ – This is my general GPP strategy on FD.

I’ll document the results of each team along with my profit and loss and return on investment as the days go by, with some final analysis for the week at the end of the article. Let’s get to the sixth week of results!

MONDAY, MAY 11TH

Team #1 – Pittsburgh (vs. Jerome Williams) and Chicago Cubs (vs. Jacob DeGrom with a healthy wind blowing out at Wrigley Field) mini-stacks with Wily Peralta at pitcher vs. White Sox. I changed this up a bit once I saw the wind at Wrigley, getting a Cubs stack in the contest just in time. It looked like it was going to work out like a charm at first, with Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo hitting back-to-back home runs in the first inning. However, the Cubs offense sputtered after that. Pittsburgh put up four runs, and Peralta was serviceable but not great. Three of my hitters topped seven points, and all of them except for one totaled at least 2.5 points. That’s a solid night for bats on FanDuel, and this team was able to scratch across a minimum cash to start the week.

• FINISH: 42.25 PTS / 419 OF 2298 FOR $25.

Team #2 – In one of the easier choices I had to make this week, Gerrit Cole got the nod as the ace of the day. Jon Lester and Jacob DeGrom were off the table with the wind at Wrigley, and I loved Cole’s matchup against the feeble Philadelphia offense. He did not disappoint, as he racked up 15 fantasy points on his way to a victory on the night. On the negative side, the bats on this team did not come through. Pedro Alvarez, Evan Longoria, and Ian Desmond all had zero or negative points, and none of the bats on this team were particularly exciting. As a result, a lower-level finish came despite this team having the best pitcher of the bunch.

• FINISH: 31.75 PTS / 1424 OF 2298 FOR $0.

Team #3 – My rosters got into a bit of a tangled mess close to lineup lock as I was making edits across several sites. Somehow, this led me to rostering Alex Colome as my punt pitcher against the Yankees while also putting Brian McCann on this team. Whoops! Colome was battered around by the Yankees, and that was somewhat of a shame as the bats were solid. Adrian Beltre hit a home run, and the cheapest hitter on this team was actually the highest scorer as Logan Forsythe had a monster 10.75 point game against C.C. Sabathia. In the end, though, it was too difficult to overcome the four point performance from the punt pitcher.

• FINISH: 35.75 PTS / 1035 OF 2298 FOR $0.

TUESDAY, MAY 12TH

Team #1 – Pittsburgh (vs. Sean O’Sullivan) and Kansas City (vs. Nick Martinez) mini-stacks with Chris Archer at pitcher vs. Yankees. Sean O’Sullivan is just not good, so I went after the Pittsburgh bats for the second straight night. I will continue to target bats — especially lefties — against Nick Martinez in hopes that the regression hits soon. This team was actually very good, as both stacked squads put up 7 runs. In addition, Archer rebounded from allowing two runs before even recording an out to make it through seven solid innings and earn a win while allowing just those two runs. I was surprised this team didn’t finish even higher, but it was a high scoring night. This was the second straight cash for the stack squads.

• FINISH: 48.60 PTS / 359 OF 2298 FOR $25.

Team #2 – With Archer on Team #1, I opted for Chris Sale as the ace of the night. He hasn’t been at his best to start this year, but he’s still an ace. His ownership was surprisingly low at just 13.9% despite a matchup with a beatable Milwaukee offense. Sale had his best outing of the year, hurling eight strong innings, earning a victory, and striking out 11 Milwaukee batters. That led to 21 fantasy points, which had this team poised for a strong run. The bats were adequate but not great, led by Jason Castro, Manny Machado, and Andrew McCutchen all scoring between 5 and 8 points. This was another solid minimum cash. It sure would be nice to win more than $25 or $30 with one of these cashes, though.

• FINISH: 49.25 PTS / 326 OF 2298 FOR $25.

Team #3 – This was the perfect format for me to take a shot on prized Mets prospect Noah Syndergaard, as I opted for him as the cheap pitcher of the day. He pitched well through five innings and probably could have been removed from the game at that point as he had thrown over 90 pitches. However, the Mets left him in for the sixth and he got touched up for a few runs. That was the difference for this team, too, as it fell just a couple points short of a cash. The squad actually had two hitters (Josh Reddick and Bryce Harper) go for over 10 FanDuel points, and that may be the first time that has happened for me in quite a while.

• FINISH: 45.08 PTS / 544 OF 2298 FOR $0.

WEDNESDAY, MAY 13TH

Team #1 – Detroit and Minnesota were the mini-stacks with the teams facing off against each other and poor pitchers on the mound in Kyle Lobstein and Ricky Nolasco. Francisco Liriano fit in nicely at pitcher vs. Philadelphia. I really liked the bats from this game, so I stacked it up. Minnesota got a home run from Torii Hunter in the first inning and knocked Lobstein around for six runs in just over two innings. That’s where the good news ends, as that game ended up with a 6-2 final. Liriano wasn’t at his best on this night, either, and this was the first non-cash for Team #1 this week.

• FINISH: 34.50 PTS / 844 OF 1724 FOR $0.

Team #2 – As if I had a choice, Matt Harvey was the ace of the night with a matchup against the strikeout-happy Cubs. He tossed seven innings with nine strikeouts and did not allow an earned run, but the Mets could not give him any run support. That’s a solid 16 FanDuel points despite the lack of a win. Buster Posey homered and had 9.5 points. Todd Frazier homered and had 9.5 points. The problem is that the other six bats combined for -0.5 points. Ouch. It’s a minor miracle that this team finished as high as it did.

• FINISH: 34.75 PTS / 832 OF 1724 FOR $0.

Team #3 – Jimmy Nelson’s price was cheap enough on FanDuel to give me incentive to choose him as the punt pitcher, and he was not good on this night. He labored through 6 2/3 innings while giving up three runs and striking out just four. I have yet to peg a punt pitcher that has put up double figure points this week, so needless to say this team isn’t holding up very well in Week #6. None of the bats had more than five points here, though a lot of them were in the 3-5 range. Somehow, Erick Aybar was the highest scoring hitter. That brings up a thought: shortstop sure is ugly this year when Erick Aybar makes his way onto the team with the expensive bats! This was a bad day for me.

• FINISH: 24.16 PTS / 1419 OF 1725 FOR $0.

FRIDAY, MAY 15TH

Team #1 – I opted for the 4-3-1 stack today, going with 4 Dodgers, 3 Diamondbacks, and Chase Anderson at pitcher against the Phillies. Although the Dodgers scored six runs, the only big performer I had was Jimmy Rollins at 11.75, which has to be his best game in a long time. Arizona only scored three runs, and Anderson didn’t pitch very well, either. The +1 hitter was Jacoby Ellsbury, who logged 3.5 fantasy points on the day. This wasn’t the worst team on the planet, as it would have cashed in most 50/50 contests on the day. It just wasn’t good enough in a GPP.

• FINISH: 33.83 PTS / 2263 OF 5216 FOR $0.

Team #2 – Clayton Kershaw was the choice as my ace of the day, and I literally took this team straight down from my incentives picks write-up for the day. That also meant that I set this team at about lunch time, and I had my first boo-boo in a while as I locked in a player who ended up not being in the lineup (A.J. Pierzynski). On a positive note, though, this team still managed to cash in the tournament! Kershaw was good as he picked up his first win in the month of May while striking out ten Rockies. A solid all-around game led to 13.5 points from Yoenis Cespedes, and a few of the other bats had decent games as well. If I would have picked a viable catcher, the results may have been even better. I was happy to cash with a zero, while also following my own picks that I had written up for the day.

• FINISH: 43.16 PTS / 939 OF 5216 FOR $25.

Team #3 – Top White Sox prospect Carlos Rodon was the punt option tonight, and he continued the week-long trend of struggles for this squad. He struggled to throw strikes and labored through four-plus innings while allowing five runs. His four point performance was too much to overcome, despite two home runs from Ryan Braun and a big game from Jhonny Peralta. There wasn’t enough other firepower here.

• FINISH: 34.25 PTS / 2174 OF 5214 FOR $0.

SUNDAY, MAY 17TH

Team #1 – Pittsburgh and Chicago Cubs mini-stacks were the choices with that wind howling out at Wrigley again. This game had the highest Vegas total on the board by a run and a half despite A.J. Burnett and Jake Arrieta being the pitchers. In other words, this was supposed to be a patented Wrigley Wind Game. What was the final score, you ask? Three to zero. Three runs. Total. This did not go according to plan, especially as Chris Archer was the pitcher here and he got pulled early thanks to Tampa Bay getting way ahead. I am convinced that this squad was the right play, but it just… didn’t work.

• FINISH: 23.00 PTS / 788 OF 1149 FOR $0.

Team #2 – There weren’t very many high dollar pitchers going on Sunday, so Garrett Richards became the ace almost by default. He wasn’t terrible, but he could not rack up a win thanks to the Angels being shut down by rookie Mike Wright (see Team #3, below, for more on that). He still tallied seven strikeouts and a decent 12.66 points. The value bats weren’t so great, though. Lorenzo Cain, Kris Bryant, Evan Gattis, and Freddie Freeman all scored 1.25 points or less, and that wasn’t enough to get the job done despite the day being a low-scoring one.

• FINISH: 25.16 PTS / 672 OF 1149 FOR $0.

Team #3 – Mike Wright may have been making his MLB debut, but I can never pass on a starting pitcher for $3,000 on FanDuel for purposes of Team #3. Wright was fantastic, hurling eight shutout innings against the struggling Angels. His 17.33 fantasy points had me assured that Team #3 would finish the week on a high note. As luck would have it, none of the big bats performed on this day. It was one of the lowest scoring full slates that I have ever seen. In fact, outside of Michael Brantley, not a single hitter had an RBI on this squad. That’s not good.

• FINISH: 23.58 PTS / 761 OF 1149 FOR $0.

FINAL RESULTS – THROUGH SIX WEEKS

MY ANALYSIS

It appears as though I have entered somewhat of a treading water phase, basically holding my own but not making much progress over the last two weeks. That’s the nature of the beast with these large tournaments, and it’s pretty much what I am accustomed to. If you look at the last two weeks, I have returned $275 from a $300 investment. That’s enough to stay afloat. This $10 GPP has become so top-heavy this year that this is about the best you can do without hitting a top-five finish at some point. Since I haven’t done that yet, the overall results are still predictably poor.

I’ve also noticed somewhat of a new trend with my tournament results this year. I crunched some numbers over the weekend, and I am sitting at a -6% GPP ROI on FanDuel, despite a +9% ROI on all the small sites combined and a +15% ROI on DraftKings. Thankfully for me, that settles out at a nice profit. However, FanDuel was actually my strongest MLB site in 2012, 2013, and 2014. That leaves me scratching my head a little bit, though I am fine with the overall profit figure. There’s just something about the FanDuel GPP structure this year that I can’t quite wrap my head around. It’s different. The payouts are deeper but also top-heavy, which creates this long line of minimum cashes. As I have said numerous times in this article this year, it’s very frustrating to finish say 128th out of 5214 and get back $40. The ever-changing pricing algorithm has also been a source of some frustration, but I don’t think that’s an issue anymore.

In the end, I am more than happy to tread water as that beats the heck out of going a whole week without a single cash. It would just be nice to hit that one big score at some point!