The GPP Scene: Year 2, Week 7

by Justin Van Zuiden (stlcardinals84) Last Updated 2015-06-11 23:06:54

When I went to start this article for the week that was the last week of May, two thousand and fifteen, I realized something. It was a revelation, really.

I almost always start this piece with the simple phrase “hey everyone,” and I am on my merry way. What fun is that? There’s no fun in saying the same thing every time! I’m sure if you google search “Rotogrinders” + “Hey everyone” – you would get a lot of hits for my articles.

(Go ahead, I know you will try it. I did).

Surprisingly, I didn’t get any hits for that. What does this have to do with this article? Absolutely nothing. I’m no JMToWin, that’s for sure. Enough of the rambling. See, “hey everyone” works just fine.

Here’s the way this series works. I will enter the $10 FanDuel Line Drive GPP five days a week with three different teams, and only those three teams. The teams will be composed of the following:

Team #1 – Two-team stacks with 4 hitters from each team, finished off by whatever pitcher I like best that fits within my remaining cap. ¹
Team #2 – My favorite expensive pitcher of the day with a team of lesser hitters.
Team #3 – A total punt at pitcher surrounded by a team of better hitters.

¹ – This is my general GPP strategy on FD.

I’ll document the results of each team along with my profit and loss and return on investment as the days go by, with some final analysis for the week at the end of the article. Let’s get to the most recent week of results!

MONDAY, MAY 25TH

Team #1 – The wind was howling out at Wrigley Field on this Memorial Day, so I gladly stacked the Cubs and Nationals in this contest. Ironically, my first big GPP win ever was on Memorial Day of 2012. I remember it like it was yesterday; the rush of winning the $109 GPP on DraftStreet was something I will never forget. I think it was something along the lines of a 60 man tournament, and first place got $2,000. Wow. Think of how far DFS has come since then! Alas, this one did not go according to the plan, as the game finished with a 2-1 final score. All three runs in the game were scored on solo home runs, but I only had one of them on this team. Carlos Martinez was solid as the pitcher on this squad, but the bats fell way, way short.

• FINISH: 26.75 PTS / 657 OF 862 FOR $0.

Team #2 – Unfortunately, I went way too heavy with this Cubs/Nationals game. It was a short slate, and I got myself some exposure on every team. That was a real drag, as I had four hitters from those two teams (two from each) on Team #2 and Team #3. This squad was also done in by the fact that the only real expensive pitcher on the slate was Dallas Keuchel, and he had a bad matchup with the Orioles on the road. I used him anyway, and it certainly didn’t work out.

• FINISH: 16.50 PTS / 824 OF 862 FOR $0.

Team #3 – Bartolo Colon got the nod with this team, as there were no super cheap pitchers that I liked, and Colon was reasonably priced on FanDuel. He was also facing the Phillies, which was a nice boost. He trudged his way to a solid 13 point performance, which had this team in good shape. Two of the bats from the non-Wrigley games were also solid, as Brian McCann belted a home run and Jason Kipnis logged a couple of hits. Thankfully, this team also had two of the home runs from the Wrigley game in Denard Span and Kris Bryant. It was enough to cash, but there wasn’t enough muscle to finish near the top.

• FINISH: 47.25 PTS / 68 OF 862 FOR $30.

TUESDAY, MAY 26TH

Team #1 – The wind was blowing out at Wrigley again! Redemption was assured! The stacks were the same as the day before, and I could even fit Clayton Kershaw on this team against the below-average Braves offense. What could go wrong? Well, the Cubs and Nationals played a snooze-fest yet again. The first four runs of the game were all scored on solo home runs, meaning the first seven runs of the series (over 17 innings on Monday and Tuesday) were scored on solo homers. It’s too bad the teams couldn’t get anyone on base in front of the big blasts. Kershaw had a dominant performance with 21 FanDuel points, but the bats totaled just 11, and the Wrigley Wind Effect was crushed for the second straight day.

• FINISH: 32.00 PTS / 1659 OF 2298 FOR $0.

Team #2 – As I used Kershaw on the stack squad, I opted for the strikeout upside of Danny Salazar as my ace of the day. He was facing a Texas team that is starting to play well, but I loved his upside for GPP’s. He struggled for the second time this year against the Rangers, laboring through 5 2/3 unimpressive innings and taking a no decision. I took a few Tampa Bay bats on this team, as they were cheap and facing an over-achieving left-hander in J.A. Happ. This worked out okay, but there wasn’t much thump in the hits. Throw in a 2.50 total from Andrew McCutchen and Starling Marte, and this team fell way short of the cash line with the poor pitching performance in there, too.

• FINISH: 26.66 PTS / 1980 OF 2298 FOR $0.

Team #3 – There have been very few punt pitchers that I have liked lately, and sometimes I feel like I am cheating if I use a guy that’s over $7,000 (as I did with Colon on Monday). Therefore, I basically forced myself to take the 0.8% owned Alex Colome here. It didn’t work, as he was predictably not very good. I also made a decision (this was an intentional one) to fade the Toronto bats on this night. I knew they would be highly owned against a bad pitcher, and they delivered against John Danks. I should have loaded up on their expensive bats on this team, but I didn’t, instead opting for a collection of non-Blue Jays that didn’t do very well….. so let’s move on from this disaster.

• FINISH: 26.83 PTS / 1965 OF 2298 FOR $0.

THURSDAY, MAY 28TH

Team #1 – The mini-stack choices were the Giants (against Shelby Miller) and Tigers (against C.J. Wilson). Both opposing pitchers have talent, but they can also get hit around at times. I am also of the belief that Shelby Miller has been over-achieving so far this year, but perhaps the change of scenery and a new pitch are working well for him. The Giants scored seven runs, though six of them were in the 8th after Miller had departed. I used the 4-3-1 stack approach here in order to get Chris Heston at pitcher. He was fantastic and picked up a win. However, the Tigers let this team down. They scored just two runs, and a few more probably would have gotten this team above the cash line.

• FINISH: 38.33 PTS / 1019 OF 1868 FOR $0.

Team #2 – The world is back on the Corey Kluber train. I was very surprised to see him at 52.5% owned in a large field tournament, especially on a single pitcher site. He was definitely the best ace on the board, and he came through with a very solid 21 point effort. His 13 strikeouts along with a victory were a big boost to his fantasy score. In addition, Albert Pujols had a big game with the bat, as did Ben Zobrist. There were a few bad apples in the hitter crew (Marcus Semien, Ryan Raburn), but this team still had enough to finish in the money.

• FINISH: 48.25 PTS / 402 OF 1868 FOR $25.

Team #3 – The shiny new object of the day was Tigers prospect Buck Farmer. He was facing an Angels offense that struggled against right-handed pitching all month, and his $5,600 salary was perfect for this article series in Team #3. Well, Mr. Farmer did not have the game I hoped for. He finished with negative fantasy points, and it’s almost impossible to cash in a GPP on FanDuel when your single pitcher is in the red. It was unfortunate, too, because the bats nearly hit 30 points on this team thanks to big games from guys like Brian McCann, Andrew McCutchen, and Justin Upton. It just wasn’t enough to overcome the awful performance from Buck Farmer.

• FINISH: 29.75 PTS / 1460 OF 1868 FOR $0.

SATURDAY, MAY 30TH

Team #1 – On Saturday, I opted for a 4-3-1 stack of Cardinals and Rangers with Michael Wacha as my pitching option. The Cardinals were facing young Carlos Frias while the Rangers were facing recently called-up Chi Chi Gonzalez. Both teams were in great spots. Wacha had a no hitter through 5 1/3 innings before falling apart. That’s exactly what this team did, as the Cardinals scored one run as a team while the Rangers got shut out. This was a very low scoring DFS night, and this team still managed to finish near the bottom.

• FINISH: 10.16 PTS / 1027 OF 1129 FOR $0.

Team #2 – Tyson Ross was about the only choice for an ace pitcher on Saturday night, as the slate was devoid of quality arms. To this note, Ross was a whopping 41.7% owned in this tournament. Naturally, he scuffled to a six fantasy point outing, striking out just two batters and failing to register a victory. A solo home run from Kole Calhoun was the only highlight for the bats, too, as every other hitter on this team had 1.50 points or less. It was a low scoring night for a reason, and this team contributed to it.

• FINISH: 13.25 PTS / 890 OF 1149 FOR $0.

Team #3 – Charlie Morton got the nod as the most trustworthy of the value pitchers, though that wasn’t saying much. Like Ross, he struck out just two batters on the night. However, Morton went seven innings, allowed just one earned run, and got a victory for his efforts. His 12 fantasy points actually may have been the highest for any pitcher on the night. Throw in home runs for Ian Kinsler and Mike Trout, and this team was humming right along. The rest of the bats were average at best, but remember… this was a low scoring night. A few more hits could have placed this team at the top, as the squad finished comfortably in the money.

• FINISH: 35.50 PTS / 42 OF 1149 FOR $30.

SUNDAY, MAY 31ST

Team #1 – I mini-stacked both sides of the White Sox/Astros contest with John Danks and Roberto Hernandez acting as the pitchers in this game. The White Sox side worked well, as they put up six runs. However, Danks turned back the clock and threw a complete game shutout despite allowing ten hits. David Price was the pitcher on this team, and he had a poor outing by his standards. He left in a 2-2 game in the 8th, but two inherited runners were allowed to score by Joba Chamberlain. That kept Price under 10 fantasy points, though it likely wouldn’t have made any difference in my results for the day.

• FINISH: 26.41 PTS / 639 OF 1149 FOR $0.

Team #2 – If you want a nice recipe for a disaster of a team, here you go. Madison Bumgarner was the choice for the ace of the day, as David Price fit on Team #1. He cruised through the first few innings before running into trouble, and he left the game with a 3-2 deficit. That mitigated his fantasy upside as he allowed some runs and could not get a win. That’s not the worst of it. Ryan Howard was 0-4 against a weak RHP. Kolten Wong got the day off and I forgot I had him in this lineup. David Peralta got hurt attempting to bunt in his first at-bat and was removed from a game that then went 17 innings. Ryan Raburn got pinch-hit for late in the game despite hitting a home run. Yeah, this one can be tossed in trash.

• FINISH: 18.33 PTS / 981 OF 1149 FOR $0.

Team #3 – Whenever a pitcher is $3,000 on FanDuel, I will almost always roster them as the punt play. You can take any bats you want, and sometimes the punt pays off. Remember, a few weeks back Mike Wright made his major league debut and fired eight shutout innings for the Orioles. It didn’t work out this way for Ty Wagner of the Brewers. He was knocked around for 5 runs in 3 2/3 innings, finishing with just 0.66 fantasy points.The good news is that this team wouldn’t have cashed anyway. Somehow, John Danks shut down the Astros (bye Evan Gattis and Jose Altuve) while Michael Lorenzen shut down the Nationals (bye Bryce Harper and Ian Desmond). I don’t regret the strategy here, but the results definitely didn’t come.

• FINISH: 9.66 PTS / 1134 OF 1149 FOR $0.

FINAL RESULTS – THROUGH SEVEN WEEKS

MY ANALYSIS

There’s one major thing to discuss this week, and that is how do we approach future wind games at Wrigley Field? I am still convinced that this is the right play, as Vegas had set the two games this past week with over/unders of 12 and 11, respectively. They did get bet down to 11 and 10 by the time the games closed, which indicated that the public was attacking the under (and winning). However, Vegas keeps setting the totals high. That’s an indication to me that playing batters from these games for DFS is the right move. There are some arguments circulating that the new renovations to the stadium are mitigating the effect of the wind, but I think we are still just dealing with a small sample size. In addition, the humidity is low at this time of year, so there is less impact than there will be as we hit July and August.

It was a small loss once again this week, but I am not overly disappointed in the results. I felt like my process of team building was fine, other than the day I missed the Wong scratch, but the end result just didn’t come. That is the fickle nature of GPP play for you. Down swings happen, and it takes a long time to approach your true win rate. Looking back at last year’s articles, I went from a season ROI of +64% through Week 4 to a season ROI of -10% through Week 12 to a season ROI of +28% by the time all was said and done. If you are going to play a strictly-GPP approach, this is an important dynamic to understand, and it’s what makes bankroll management so important. You are going to go through slumps, and you are going to go through them often. Learning to fight through them without extending your losses even deeper is something that is key to success, and it’s not a factor to overlook. If you can go through these stretches while still evaluating your teams objectively, you are on the right path.

What do you think of the wind factor at Wrigley Field so far this year? Leave your thoughts in the comments and hopefully we can have a nice discussion about it. This was a low-scoring week, so hopefully you were able to navigate the waters successfully!