The High Stakes Scene - Favre vs. Cards Gm 4
Editor’s Note: The “High Stakes Scene” is a recurring series giving you an in-depth look into the highest stakes games in the Daily Fantasy world. Our first “High Stakes Scene” features top-ranked STLCardinals84 as he gives you in-depth analysis into his head-to-head matches vs. BrettFavre444. Full details on their match can be read here. We hope you enjoy the near real-time insight below.
When we started this series, I was hoping that there would be one game where Favre and I had totally different rosters but both put up solid scores. That would help in breaking down two different rosters that both performed well. Finally, this came true in Game Four. Favre and I were both on our game lastnight in our cash games, and that will make this a fun breakdown.
The Short Attention Span Version:
Favre did not shy away from the games with weather threats and, true to his playing style, wasn’t afraid to take a gamble. It paid off for him once again, and he’s absolutely on fire right now. Although I put up a very solid cash game score of 66 points, Favre put up top-end GPP scores for a second straight day and finished with a big Game Four victory and a commanding 3-1 series lead.
Breaking Down My Lineup:
1) As I said in the intro, I was hoping there would be a day where we both played well. It’s much more enjoyable to break down what went right for both of us than it is to talk about who played just good enough to not lose. I loved the spot for the Diamondbacks at home on this night. Chase Field plays like a Coors Field Light and going against Roberto Hernandez was a nice bonus. The first thing I did was lock in four of the top five Arizona bats in Parra, Goldschmidt, Montero, and Hill.
2) Next, I moved to the pitching. Due to the weather concern and the gigantic price tag, I couldn’t justify Strasburg. He was easily the #1 option, but it’s hard to feel comfortable with the rest of your squad when you spend almost $24,000 on one of your three pitchers. This led me to Garza, Miller, and Archer – three guys that I had ranked in my top five on the night and all were under $20,000. I felt comfortable with these three choices when I made them.
3) I had to go with a few value bats to stay under the cap, so I stayed true to my cash game strategy and looked for guys in good batting order spots with decent matchups. I like Bogaerts against LHP and was banking on this being a night where Buerhle finally came back to earth. Cano was another selection I liked despite the L/L matchup because it seems like a steal to get him at a $5K price tag. I rounded out the selections with additional value bats in Granderson, Santana, and DeJesus, none of whom I was particularly in love with. As I made these picks, I was reminded of why I went with a RP in Game One. Even without Strasburg, I was still forced to go cheap and fringy with 3 of my hitters.
Breaking Down Favre’s Lineup:
1) Pure dynamite. Everything he picked clicked on this night. Fearing none of the weather situations, he loaded up on players in DC, Baltimore, and New York. Wheeler was a fabulous pick that wasn’t even on my radar. I immediately went to Archer and Miller in that price range and made a mistake in ignoring the young Mets right-hander against the Marlins. Strasburg was a super-safe cash game play that he found a way to fit in at all costs.
2) Pedroia was a fantastic pick against the lefty Buehrle and I was a big fan of that pick as soon as I saw his lineup.
3) Beckett was the one pick that seemed a little odd to me, but Favre isn’t afraid to gamble and take a chance on guys. I will write a little more on this below, and this choice worked like a charm for him.
4) Favre spent $54K on pitching thanks to the Strasburg selection, and with Pedroia in there as a big bat he had to go cheap with several hitters. He chose Hosmer, Rasmus, DeJesus, and Carter as value bats. Once again, this shows his willingness to gamble with some picks whereas I prefer to play it safe in cash games. Right now, his approach is working like a charm and paying off in a big way. I have to give him mad props for that. It’s making me wonder if I tend to play things a little too safe in my cash games.
How The Game Played Out:
1) Wheeler, Strasburg, and Pedroia came out of the gates firing and gave Favre a gigantic lead right off the bat. He held a comfortable lead for most of the early portion of the evening.
2) The big turning point in the game was how his mid-range pitchers outperformed mine. Wheeler was absolutely fabulous and was a great pick by Favre. Meanwhile, Archer was terrible and seems to be a guy that I am overrating in the early season. He has terrific stuff but hasn’t put it all together yet at the MLB level outside of a few solid performances. The scores for just these two guys gave Favre a nice 10 point edge over me.
3) Despite the large early hole, which was upwards of 30 points thanks to Favre’s solid early picks, my bats made a run late. Aaron Hill had a great game and I was happy to see Cano come through despite the lefty/lefty matchup. These two guys were my top selections of the night at $5K price tags.
4) Favre put the game away with a solid late performance by Josh Beckett. This was yet another solid pitching pick by Favre and admittedly was one that I questioned at first. I’m sold on Beckett being washed up, but Vegas and Favre played it right tonight. They had Beckett as a big favorite and the Rockies at a team total of 3 to 3.5. Dodger Stadium is an extreme pitcher’s park at night, and Beckett came through in a big way to give Favre the win and a huge edge in the series.
5) I also must make another point that’s standing out to me: in the only game I won in this series I went with a relief pitcher instead of all starters. In the other games I’ve punted one SP, gone with 3 elite SP, and gone with 3 mid-to-high end SP. Those have all been losses. I really think there is merit to taking a reliever on DS this year with the way they have the pricing set. This is definitely a point to research and discuss.
6) In sum, I can’t complain too much about my squad tonight. My team performed well and put up a solid score for cash games on DS, but Favre’s team was absolutely on fire. He’s playing some amazing DFS baseball right now.
The Community’s Task:
I know my writing style is enjoyable for some and abrasive for others, though my intention is never to upset anyone. To show my appreciation for this community and support for those that are reading this column, if I happen to come back from a 3-1 deficit and win this series I will host a $1,000 freeroll on DraftStreet exclusively for RotoGrinders members! Hopefully this is some good karma for Team STL as we head into Game Five tonight.
Since this gives all of you somewhat of a vested interest, I’ll let you make this call for Game Five. Do I go back to 2 SP and a RP? Do I still go for three starters? What say you? Leave your thoughts in the comments below and I’ll consider them when making out my Game Five roster.
FINAL SCORE – FAVRE 77, CARDS 65.92. FAVRE LEADS SERIES 3-1.
NEXT GAME – Saturday, April 26th (night games only)
Thanks for reading!