The Kicker Study: Week 1
Welcome to The Kicker Study! In this article, we’ll be digging into the much-maligned kicker position.
Yes, you read it correctly. The next 1,000 words are dedicated to evaluating the kicker options for Week 1 on FanDuel! I can hear the broad rumblings of the DFS community now…“Kickers are unpredictable.” “They’re all the same.” “Just pick a min-priced one and move on to more important positions.”
I’m looking at you, Dan Back.
Very few people spend any time analyzing this position even though it is, in fact, fairly predictable, and that’s the very reason we’re going to. Over the next few weeks I’ll be sharing my thoughts on kicker strategy, kicker pricing, and a few of the top options to target.
The basic strategy I’ll be using to build a pool of targets is pretty straightforward. It comes from a combination of personal experience and reading a collection of thoughts from some of the best DFS minds on the internet.
I’ll be starting with the following criteria:
1) Being on a team with an implied team total above 24.
2) Being on a team who is a home favorite.
I’ll be listing all the kickers who meet these criteria, but from there I’ll discuss other factors such as price, weather/dome, health, attempted two-point conversion percentage, and Vegas kicker props to help you narrow your selections and identify the best options. At the end I may include “others to consider” if there is a guy that stands out to me despite not meeting our criteria.
As with any position in any DFS sport, we can’t guarantee a player’s weekly result. We can, however, use a combination of data points to put ourselves in the path that creates the most opportunity for our players to score points. From what I can tell, the basic criteria above will help us find that opportunity more often than not.
Top Plays:
Steven Hauschka ($4,800)
Opponent: Miami – Spread: -10.5 – Team Total: 27.3
Steven Hauschka grades out as the top option this week. The Seahawks are playing at home against the Dolphins, and as a 10.5 favorite they have an implied team total of 27.3. At $4,800, he’s the the third highest priced kicker, which is pretty nice for our highest-ranked guy. There should be lots of opportunity for a guy who made 94% of his attempts last year. The one thing that I’m curious about is last year he only scored double-digits seven times in 18 games, and the majority of those were early in the season.
Adam Vinatieri ($4,800)
Opponent: Detroit – Spread: -4 – Team Total: 27.3
Vinatieri is another guy who lines up perfectly for our overall formula being a home favorite with a high implied team total. That being said, if you look at his results last year he had as many games under five fantasy points as he had with double-digits. There were seven in each category. I’m going to chalk that up to some of the struggles we saw from the Colts when they were without a full strength, Luck-based offense. I’m going to assume most of those games would not have fit our criteria anyway.
Cairo Santos ($4,800)
Opponent: San Diego – Spread: -7 – Team Total: 25.5
I think Santos has one of the highest upsides on the slate. He was one of two kickers who had more than 20 fantasy points twice last season (Blair Walsh is the other), and he scored in double-digits five additional times. They are favored to win by a touchdown, and they have the seventh-highest team total at 25.5. He typically gets a lot of FG attempts, and this game projects for that to continue.
Chandler Catanzaro ($4,900)
Opponent: New England – Spread: -6 – Team Total: 26.5
The numbers seem to line up well for Catanzaro to get the opportunity to put up some points this week, but as the second-most expensive guy, there are a couple things that move him down on my list. Last year, the Cardinals had the second-most TDs in the league, and since they didn’t attempt any two-point conversions, he benefited from all those XP opportunities. My concern is that his FG attempts per game were fairly pedestrian, and that is where the bigger fantasy point differentiation comes from. This all leads for him to be a fairly safe option for cash games, but he isn’t as likely to get you the big numbers you need in a GPP.
Secondary Options:
Nick Novak ($4,500)
Opponent: Chicago – Spread: -6.5 -Team Total 25.3
Novak passes our initial filter, but I’m not sure he is a better option than the first four listed. In 13 games last year, he attempted 21 FGs. That’s not a lot of attempts. I can see a scenario where Novak gets a bunch of opportunities, but the team total on the low end of our threshold, combined with enough uncertainty with the Brock-led offense, make him a secondary option for me. I still think he’s worth a spot on the list, however, I just like the first four options better.
Matt Bryant ($4,500)
Opponent: Tampa Bay – Spread: -3 – Team Total: 25.3
Like Novak, Bryant fits the criteria this week, but even though he’s on the lower end of the salary range I probably won’t be using him. Last year he only had two games in an injury shortened season, and more importantly, he missed some time in training camp. He’s apparently healthy enough to play, but why go here when the five previous guys offer as much or more upside?
Others to Consider:
Chris Boswell ($4,600)
Opponent: Washington – Spread: -3 – Team Total 26.5
The fact that Boswell is on the road kept him out of the Top Plays section, but I like him as an option to consider. This will be his first season as the full time kicker in Pittsburgh, but he impressed in his partial season last year. Despite losing XP opportunities due Pittsburgh having the most two-point conversion attempts in the league last year, Boswell still managed to score in double-digits nine of the 14 games he started. That’s what happens when you have the most FG attempts per game! This week they are favored and have one of the highest team totals on the slate. This is looking like a Monday night shootout and Boswell should have plenty of chances.
Pre-Kick Update:
I’ll be updating this section Saturday night or Sunday morning if there is anything to note based on late Vegas line movement, weather, injury status etc……
And thus concludes the inaugural edition of our kicker study. I’ll be back next week to discuss how we did, see what we can learn from all the Week 1 results, and provide some thoughts on Week 2 options.