The Kicker Study: Week 10
Welcome to The Kicker Study! Contrary to popular opinion, kickers can be fairly predictable. Each week we’ll be digging into the kicker position on FanDuel by seeing what we can learn from the prior weeks’ results and using our filtering criteria to identify some top options to consider for the current week.
Week 9 Review
Week 9 Rec Average: 9.5 fps
Week 9 Field Average: 8.2 fps
Season Rec Average: 9.4 fps
Season Field Average: 8.2 fps
Santos and Lambo came through with big, double digit totals for us last week and Crosby scored a respectable eight. That’s a pretty good showing out of our trio of top plays. Walsh was our lone bust of the week only getting four points in his matchup vs. Detroit. Franks showed us that even players who have had poor season results can be worth playing if the criteria are right in a given week.
Week 10
There are eight kickers to consider this week who fit our model.
Top Plays
Justin Tucker ($4,800)
Opponent: Cleveland – Spread: -10 – Team Total: 27.5 – Prop>3: 9/2
Tucker is tied for the most made FG on the season with 20, and he has the highest FPPG with 10.875. He hasn’t missed a FG or XP yet this season which is what gets him in the top spot this week. Baltimore is a big home favorite and is projected to score 27.5 points. I’ll take the top kicker in the league with the 6th highest price all day.
Josh Lambo ($4,700)
Opponent: Miami – Spread: -3.5 – Team Total: 25.75 – Prop>3: 19/4
Lambo delivered yet another double digit performance last week as one of our top plays, and he returns again this week. His three FGs moved him up to a tie with Tucker and Sturgis for the most made FG on the season. While his career accuracy rate is slightly below average, he’s made 91% of his attempts this season which is very good. The criteria, price, and performance all align again this week and he deserves a spot on your rosters.
Caleb Sturgis ($4,600)
Opponent: Atlanta – Spread: -1 – Team Total: 25.5 – Prop>3: 9/2
Our third top play is also tied for the most made FGs on the year at 20. The Eagles continue to find themselves in positions to kick FG on 4th down and are tied for the most attempts on the season with 22. If you do the math, that makes Sturgis 20-22 and gives him a 91% accuracy rate(exactly like Lambo). The spread in this one is real close as Philly is only favored by one point, so we’ll have to watch the line throughout the week. As of now, he finds himself as a home favorite, projected to score 25.5 points, and has delivered a strong track record of performance at a cheap price.
Secondary Options
All of the secondary options have some warts, but as we’ve seen, the criteria still provide us a pool of players who on average outperform the field. Instead of writing this sentence in each individual write-up, I’ll just say it here: “While X meets our criteria this week, I don’t see him as a stronger option than any of our Top Plays.” I do however like them better than using a random player from the field.
Robbie Gould ($4,500)
Opponent: Cincinnati – Spread: -2.5 – Team Total: 24.75 – Prop>3: 13/2
Gould is entering his third game as a Giant. The first was in London where he was one for one, the second was last week where he made no FGs, but four XPs. This week they are home against Cincinnati and he has a spread and team total that fit the criteria. Overall, the Giants rank in the bottom half of the league so far this season in FG attempts.
Stephen Gostkowski ($5,100)
Opponent: Seattle – Spread: -7.5 – Team Total: 28 – Prop>3: 6/1
Gostkowski continues to be the most expensive kicker in the player pool, and he has been nowhere close to meeting value in most weeks(up to this point). That being said, this week they are big home favorites and are expected to put up 28 points. When I see poor accuracy and a low FG total on the season, I’m having a hard time justifying the price and risk.
Chandler Catanzaro ($4,500)
Opponent: San Francisco – Spread: -13.5 – Team Total: 31 – Prop>3: 9/2
Catanzaro is one of three kickers who have failed to get to ten made FGs this season who been the teams primary kicker all year. As with all the kickers in this section, he’s struggled with both opportunity and accuracy up to this point. However, the criteria should be here to help with the opportunity this week. Being a huge home favorite with the highest team total should lead to plenty of opportunity, but it will be up to him to make them.
Will Lutz ($4,500)
Opponent: Denver – Spread: -1.5 – Team Total: 25.25 – Prop>3: n/a
Lutz gives me fits. He’s cheap, he’s shown high upside, but is horribly inaccurate. As in 13-18 on the season inaccurate. That being said he has a decent floor due to XPs. He’s made 27 so far which is good for second in the league. This week he fits the criteria as a small home favorite on a team expected to score 25.25 points. Will this be a two for four week like the Oakland game, or a four for four week like the Seattle one?
Chris Boswell ($4,600)
Opponent: Dallas – Spread: -2.5 – Team Total: 26.25 – Prop>3: n/a
Pittsburgh has attempted the fewest FG on the season at 10. Boswell has made seven of those. Just sayin’.
Pre-Kick Update
As of Sunday morning the weather looks pretty good and nobody falls out of our player pool based on line moves! Good luck!