The Kicker Study: Week 11
Welcome to The Kicker Study!
Contrary to popular opinion, kickers can be fairly predictable. Each week we’ll be digging into the kicker position on FanDuel by seeing what we can learn from the prior weeks’ results and using our filtering criteria to identify some top options to consider for the current week.
Week 10 Review
Week 10 Rec average: 7.25
Week 10 Field average: 8.4
Season Rec average: 9.2
Season Field average: 8.2
Last week was only the second time all season where the field average outperformed the model. The top plays averaged nine fantasy points (which outperformed), but the secondary plays brought the overall average down. Lambo, Sturgis, and Tucker were true to form and all had solid days, but the concerns I had on Lutz and Boswell came true.
Week 11
This week, we have no shortage of options who fit the model. There are ten kickers who are home favorites and have a projected team total of at least 24 points.
Top Plays:
Cairo Santos ($4,900)
Opponent: Tampa Bay – Spread: -7.5 – Team Total: 26 – Prop>3: 10/3
Santos continues to perform well and the stars align again this week. As a big home favorite with a high team total, he should get plenty of opportunities to kick this week. He’s tied for 3rd in made field goals on the season and has made four FGs each of the last two weeks. At 10/3, he has the second best prop odds on the board.
Update – after initial reports of tapering wind in DC, it now looks like heavy winds tonight too. I’m downgrading Hopkins and will not be rostering him as part of our recs this week
Dustin Hopkins ($4,800)
Opponent: Green Bay – Spread: -2.5 – Team Total: 26.5 – Prop>3: 17/4
Hopkins is tied for 3rd in made FGs with Santos. The Redskins have the second most attempts on the season, and the model says that should continue this week. HIs accuracy just above average and I’m expecting a solid performance against a less than stellar Packers defense.
Adam Vinatieri ($5,000)
Opponent: Tennessee – Spread: -3 – Team Total: 27.5 – Prop>3: 4/1
Vinatieri is a perfect 19/19 on the season and up until the last couple weeks was a pretty safe source of kicker points. Two weeks ago, he only had two extra points in a loss to the Chiefs, and last week he only had one FG to go along with four XPs. They are expected to score a bunch of points this week against Tennessee and, he had a nice double-digit day against this same team earlier in October. This week he gets the home dome advantage and should find his way into your rosters.
Dan Bailey ($5,100)
Opponent: Baltimore – Spread: -7.5 – Team Total: 26.25 – Prop>3: 11/2
Dallas continues to roll, and for the most part Bailey has rolled right along with them. Bailey has kicked three or more FGs in four of ten weeks, and has zero FGs in two. Those two zeros had 4 and 5 XPs respectively so he still didn’t kill you. This week the Vegas projections look good, and I think he gets back to the double-digit performances we saw earlier this season. His price is a bit high, but I don’t mind using him this week.
Steven Hauschka ($4,800)
Opponent: Philadelphia – Spread: -6.5 – Team Total: 25.5 – Prop>3: 11/2
After a slow start to the season, the Seattle offense has found its footing and Hauschka has crept his way into the top ten in made FGs. He’s had at least two FGs in seven of nine weeks and is averaging almost two XPs per game as well. I don’t see any reason why he doesn’t deserve a spot in our top plays section this week.
Secondary Options
Matt Prater ($4,600)
Opponent: Jacksonville – Spread: -6.5 – Team Total: 26.75 – Prop>3: 5/1
Prater was right on the Top Plays/Secondary Options line for me. The Vegas totals look good, and while he’s in the top half in FGs on the season, he was below all five of the Top Plays. I think he is worthy of consideration this week, but I just don’t think he has the upside of those top plays being that he’s only made more than two FGs once all season.
Mike Nugent ($4,500)
Opponent: Buffalo – Spread: -3 – Team Total: 25 – Prop>3: 3/1
Nugent is getting plenty of attempts this season, and he should get plenty of attempts this week. The question is whether on not he makes any of them. He had a great start to the season, making three or more FGs in 3/4 weeks. Since then, he’s had zero or one in four of the next five. Nugent has been glorious, and he’s been terrible. He has the best prop odds on the board this week at 3/1, so we know Vegas thinks he’s going to have a good week against Buffalo.
Robbie Gould ($4,500)
Opponent: Chicago – Spread: -7 – Team Total: 26.25 – Prop>3: 19/4
Update – Due to wind and negative line movement, I am removing Gould as a recommended play.
Gould and the Giants fit the model this week, but on the season they haven’t had many FG attempts, and even though he fit the model last week he underperformed. They are going against a terrible Bears team and the Vegas indicators look good, but unless I need at absolute minimum guy, I’m going to avoid him this week.
Graham Gano ($4,900)
Opponent: New Orleans – Spread: -3.5 – Team Total: 27.5 – Prop>3: 11/2
I want to be high on Gano this week. I really do, but his accuracy is keeping him in the secondary plays this week. The indicators look good, but he’s only middle of the pack in FGs on the season and is below average from an accuracy perspective.
Sebastian Janikowski ($4,600)
Opponent: Houston – Spread: -5.5 – Team Total: 25.75 – Prop>3: n/a
Update: This game is actually in Mexico City. Therefore Janikowski isn’t truly at home and does not qualify based on our criteria. I will not be playing him this week.
Janikowski’s accuracy is even worse than Gano’s, and he’s been a boom or bust option this year. He’s had four FGs twice this season, and he’s also had 0’s twice. With a 73% accuracy rate, you have to be comfortable taking a pretty big risk when we have the more consistent Top Plays available this week.
Pre-Kick Update:
Sunday morning update:
1) Nugent – There will be steady 10-15 mph winds. I’m not overly concerned.
2) Gould – Winds of 20+ mph are expected, and the implied team total has come down 1.5 points since I wrote the article. I no longer recommend Gould.
3) Hauschka – There will likely be some rain during this game. However, the winds should be calm. I’d say Hauschka can still be considered with maybe a slight downgrade over some of the other options.
4) Hopkins – Due to wind tonight, I’m downgrading Hopkins.