The Kicker Study: Week 12
Welcome to The Kicker Study!
Contrary to popular opinion, kickers can be fairly predictable. Each week we’ll be digging into the kicker position on FanDuel by seeing what we can learn from the prior weeks’ results and using our filtering criteria to identify some top options to consider for the current week.
Week 11 Review:
Week 11 Rec average: 7.3
Week 11 Field average: 6.8
Season Rec average: 9
Season Field average: 8.1
It was a low scoring week for kickers in general with the weekly averages being between one and two point s lower than their season average. We outperformed the field last week by .5 points. The model picks would have crushed the field if it weren’t for Mike Nugent. He once again showed that Vegas team total and prop odds are only one piece of the puzzle. He went into the week with the best odds of kicking over three FGs and he kicked zero. The positive is that five of the seven kickers recommended scored above the field average. If you used a portfolio of our Ks in your lineup builder, you have had an advantage once again!
Week 12:
There are eight kickers who are home favorites and have a projected team total of at least 24 points. A couple of them are weekly favorites of ours, and once again a few will put the model to the test.
Top Plays:
Matt Bryant ($5,100)
Opponent: Arizona – Spread: -4 – Team Total: 27.25 – Prop>3: 11/2
Matt Bryant is expensive, but he is the only kicker who doesn’t really have any performance or situational related negatives this week. His accuracy is above average, they have one of the highest implied team totals on the slate, and he’s kicked three FGs in three of his last four games. He should continue to roll at home this week against the Cardinals.
Caleb Sturgis ($4,600)
Opponent: Green Bay – Spread: -3.5 – Team Total: 25.25 – Prop>3: 5/1
Sturgis finds his way back into our lives this week against a Green Bay team whose defense isn’t very good. He’s tied for first with Bryant for the most made FGs on the season, and he should get some more opportunities this week. His accuracy has been mediocre, but we can live with it because the number of FGs he attempts makes up for the occasional miss. After a poor showing on the road last week in Seattle, he may be a bit overlooked this week.
Dan Bailey ($4,900)
Opponent: Washington – Spread: -7.5 – Team Total 29.25 – Prop>3: 11/2
If you are playing the Thursday only slate, Bailey makes a great option. Even in the two games this season where he didn’t kick a FG, he still had four and five XPs respectively. He’s averaging two FGs plus XPs at home, and according to Vegas, the opportunities should be there this week.
Nick Novak ($4,700)
Opponent: San Diego – Spread: -1 – Team Total: 24 – Prop>3: 11/2
Update the team total for Houston has dropped below our cutoff and Novak is no longer a top play
In five games on the road, the Texans are 1-4, and Novak has averaged 1.6 FG per game. At home they are 5-0 and he is averaging 2.6 FG per game. This week they are slim favorites and the team total is right on our cutoff, but as long as those lines hold, he fits the model and I’ll use him as one of the top options. His accuracy is only average, but like Sturgis, the volume of attempts makes up for the misses.
Secondary Options
Will Lutz ($4,800)
Opponent: Los Angeles – Spread: -7.5 – Team Total: 26.5 – Prop>3: n/a
I continue to have a hard time trusting Lutz. I like the New Orleans offense at home, and I like the big team total. But Lutz is inaccurate and inconsistent, neither of which makes for a top play. He’s fine to use in a GPP because he does have big upside, but just don’t be surprised if he’s scores less than 5 points.
Dan Carpenter ($4,500)
Opponent: Jacksonville – Spread: -7.5 – Team Total 26.5 – Prop>3: 6/1
Buffalo is also a big favorite this week, but Carpenter is also dealing with accuracy issues. A three FG like last week would be great, but a 1-2 day like the previous two weeks isn’t really what were looking for. Again, he makes a decent option if you need a min-priced guy, but if I have a few hundred more to spend I’m going up to Bryant, Sturgis, or Novak.
Sebastian Janikowski ($4,700)
Opponent: Carolina – Spread: -3.5 – Team Total: 25.75 – Prop>3: 11/2
Despite his nine point outing last week in Mexico City, Janikowski’s accuracy still keeps him from being a top play for me. This rest of this paragraph will look familiar. He’s had four FGs twice this season, and he’s also had 0’s twice. With a 73% accuracy rate, you have to be comfortable taking a pretty big risk when we have the more consistent Top Plays available this week. He’s usable and has shown some good upside, but I like the top plays better.
Andrew Franks ($4,600)
Opponent: San Francisco – Spread: -7.5 – Team Total: 26.5 – Prop>3: 13/2
Franks has one of the worst fantasy outputs amongst kickers on the season. However, the last time he fit our model criteria(week 9) he put up a respectable nine points. He a cheap, usable option, but the track record keeps him as a secondary play for me this week.
Pre-Kick Update:
11/24 AM – Updated with all kicker props.
11/27 AM – 1) The weather looks pretty decent outside a bit of a breeze in Mia.
2) The Houston team total has come down to 21.75 which means Novak no longer meets our criteria and is not a top option anymore. I would put him into the “other to consider category”.