The Kicker Study: Week 13
Welcome to The Kicker Study! Contrary to popular opinion, kickers can be fairly predictable. Each week we’ll be digging into the kicker position on FanDuel by seeing what we can learn from the prior weeks’ results and using our filtering criteria to identify some top options to consider for the current week.
Week 12 Review
Week 12 Rec average: 7.4
Week 12 Field average: 6.75
Season Rec average: 8.8
Season Field average: 8
Week 13
There are plenty of options to consider this week. Nine kickers meet our criteria, with salaries ranging from $4,600 to $5,100. Let’s dig in a bit to see how they look.
Top Plays:
Matt Bryant ($5,100)
Opponent: Kansas City – Spread: -3.5 – Team Total: 26.25 – Prop>3: 13/2
Bryant is back as my top play this week. The Falcons offense continues to perform well and the number of field goals and extra points this group produces provides a high floor and high upside combination. The criteria all line up for Bryant this week and he should find his way into some of your lineups.
Steven Hauschka ($4,800)
Opponent: Carolina – Spread: -7 – Team Total: 25.75 – Prop>3: 4/1
Update – Downgrade – There looks to be a chance of rain in Seattle today.
Hauschka has had a pretty stable floor this season outside a couple random weeks. He’s also shown four FG upside, and I think that the performance that makes him the seasons 8th ranked kicker continues this week. He’s averaging two FG and 2.5 XPs per game at home this season. He comes in a few hundred dollars of savings off Bryant and makes a fine play.
Stephen Gostkowski ($4,900)
Opponent: Los Angeles – Spread: -13.5 – Team Total: 29 – Prop>3: 13/2
For much of the season Gostkowski has been one of the most expensive kickers and he has not returned value very often in that situation. His accuracy and FG opportunities haven’t been there this year, but now his price is starting to come down which makes him a bit more interesting. This week they are two touchdown favorites with the highest team total on the slate. That makes me want to fire him up.
Josh Lambo ($4,600)
Opponent: Tampa Bay – Spread: -4 – Team Total: 25.75 – Prop>3: 6/1
Lambo currently finds himself as the 9th ranked kicker from a season perspective. While he has had a couple of real low results, he’s also kicked three or more FGs four times. He has above average accuracy, big upside, and a cheap price. He’s my favorite kicker on the low end of the salary range.
Mason Crosby ($4,600)
Opponent: Houston – Spread: -4.5 – Team Total 25.5 – Prop>3: 11/2
Update – Snow in Green Bay means I’m removing Crosby as a recommendation
Crosby is averaging over two FG per game at home this season, and should have the opportunity to meet or exceed that average this week. The Packers are 4.5 point home favorites against Houston and are expected to score over 25 points. Historically his accuracy has been below average, but this season he is exceeding both his career and the league accuracy averages which reduces that concern for me. He makes another good low cost option.
Secondary Options:
Sebastian Janikowski ($4,800)
Opponent: Buffalo – Spread: -3 – Team Total: 26.25 – Prop>3: 6/1
Janikowski has had no shortage of FG opportunities. He’s had 26 attempts on the season, but has only made 20 of them. That accuracy isn’t good, but the sheer volume of attempts have allowed him to tie for the 11th most made FG in the league. He’s another high variance play with multiple double digit fantasy outputs and a handful of low single digit results as well. That being said, in the last three weeks he has been much more accurate and consistent. I think he is worthy of consideration and I have him listed first amongst the secondary options.
Will Lutz ($4,800)
Opponent: Detroit – Spread: -5 – Team Total: 29.25 – Prop>3: 7/1
Lutz continues to be a high-risk, high-reward option. The offense performed as expected last week and he was 7/7 in XPs. If a few of those touchdowns would have resulted in FGs, he could have had a huge week instead of being average. This weeks seems to line up with similar opportunity. Over the course of the season his accuracy has been terrible which makes him hard to trust. I can see the potential, but I can also see taking a safer option.
Players who meet the criteria but are not recommended:
Chris Boswell ($4,700)
Opponent: New York Giants – Spread: -6 – Team Total: 27.75 – Prop>3: 13/2
Boswell is forcing me to create a new category this week. He meets the base criteria, but our criteria highlight potential opportunity. If someone has poor accuracy or their team likes to go for two point conversions, we have to account for that in the analysis. Boswell is the lowest ranked kicker who has had the job for the full season. This is primarily due to a combination of poor accuracy and the Steelers going for two at a higher than normal rate. To be fair, he has hit double digit fantasy points a couple times this year, but he’s also had eight games with zero or one FG. He’s here because he technically meets the base model, but with seven other options I can’t see using him.
Chandler Catanzaro ($4,800)
Opponent: Washington – Spread: -2.5 – Team Total: 26 – Prop>3: 7/1
The same could be said for Catanzaro. He’s also towards the bottom of season long stats, and he’s only kicked more than one FG five times this season. He’s kicked one or zero in 6. At 4,800 he seems to be way overpriced for the production we’ve seen. The other options provide a much safer floor with as much or higher upside.
Pre-Kick Update:
1) Hauschka – There looks to be a chance of rain in Seattle today. If it holds off he still makes a great play, if actually rains I’d be off him.
2) Crosby – Snow in Green Bay = Not using Crosby.