The Kicker Study: Week 14
Welcome to The Kicker Study!
Contrary to popular opinion, kickers can be fairly predictable. Each week we’ll be digging into the kicker position on FanDuel by seeing what we can learn from the prior weeks’ results and using our filtering criteria to identify some top options to consider for the current week.
Week 13 Review:
Week 13 Rec average: 12
Week 13 Field average: 7.9
Season Rec average: 9.1
Season Field average: 7.9
Our pool of kickers crushed it last week, averaging 12 fantasy points compared to 7.9 for the field. Amongst the recommendations, only Lambo underperformed with his three points scored by making three XPs and a missing a FG. We may need to watch this as he’s missed one in his last two games and his accuracy rate is coming down closer to the league average.
Week 14
Our pool of candidates is a bit more limited this week, with six kickers meeting our base criteria, and two of them not being very appealing.
Top Plays:
Matt Prater ($4,900)
Opponent: Chicago – Spread: -7.5 – Team Total: 25.5 – Prop>3: 3/1
Matt Prater is my favorite kicker this week. After six straight weeks of kicking two or more field goals, he finds himself up tied for the fourth most made field goals on the season. He’s a perfect 13/13 over his last four games and is well above average with a 90% accuracy rate. This week he is home in the dome and is playing a bad Chicago Bears team. They are big favorites and are expected to put up a healthy 25.5 points, which should lead to him having plenty of scoring opportunities.
Adam Vinatieri ($5,100)
Opponent: Houston – Spread: -6 – Team Total: 26.5 – Prop>3: 13/2
Vinatieri is also at home this week, and the Colts are almost as big a favorite as the Lions. His FG rate has declined a bit over the last several games as the Colts have been scoring more touchdowns, which is leading to an increase in XPs. With the Vegas indicators, his accuracy, and his overall season trends, I think he provides a relatively safe, high floor play with double digit upside this week.
Stephen Gostkowski ($4,800)
Opponent: Baltimore – Spread: -7 – Team Total: 26 – Prop>3: 13/2
We used Gostkowski last week and he came through for us in a big way. After a mediocre start to the season his price came down a bit, but over the last two weeks he has made three and four FGs respectively and his price has not gone back up. In fact, he went down $100 to $4,800 this week! He’s a big home favorite this week, and barring a significant change in the weather he should be in line for another nice outing.
Cairo Santos ($4,500)
Opponent: Oakland – Spread: -3 – Team Total: 24.75 – Prop>3: 19/4
Back in Week 11 we used Santos and he was priced up at a hefty $4,900. While he’s cooled off a bit over the last three weeks, he meets our criteria, and it looks like a good opportunity to capitalize on his new price of $4,500! His team total is just over our 24 point threshold, which we’ll have to watch, but I think he makes a great min priced play if that’s what you need this week.
Secondary Plays – None
Kickers who meet our criteria but are not recommended:
Similar to last week there are a couple guys who meet our base criteria, but do not look worth the risk when compared with the other kickers in our player pool.
Roberto Aguayo ($4,500)
Opponent: New Orleans – Spread: -2.5 – Team Total: 26.75 – Prop>3: 7/1
Aguayo has as many games (five) with zero FGs as he has with two or more. He’s also made fewer than 70% of the FGs he’s attempted, which is well below average. Even if you need a min priced guy. I can’t see using him over Santos. The Bucs do have one of the highest implied team totals on the slate, and Aguayo did have one game this year with four FGs, but I just don’t think the risk is worth the potential reward this week.
Graham Gano ($4,800)
Opponent: San Diego – Spread: -1 – Team Total: 24.5 – Prop>3: n/a
Gano and the Panthers continue to be mired in mediocrity. In fact, the last two weeks have been just dreadful for him. Two weeks ago he had two points, and last week he had one. To be fair, he was on the road in both matchups and did not fit our criteria. He does fit this week, but barely. They are a slim one-point favorite, and are only .5 points above our 24 point team total threshold. I won’t be using him this week because I think the five other options are much safer.
Others to Consider:
Matt Bryant ($5,200)
Opponent: Los Angeles – Spread: -5.5 – Team Total: 25.25 – Prop>3: 6/1
Since our pool of players is a little light this week, I’m going to include an additional option to consider. The only thing Bryant doesn’t have going for him this week is that the Falcons are on the road, however, they are favored and have a high projected team total. Bryant has been consistent and accurate this season, and if you have the money he is worthy of consideration.
Pre-Kick Update:
There does not appear to be any weather concerns with our limited pool this week, and the team total lines are still in our favor.