The Kicker Study: NFL Week 15
Welcome to The Kicker Study!
Contrary to popular opinion, kickers can be fairly predictable. Each week we’ll be digging into the kicker position on FanDuel by seeing what we can learn from the prior weeks’ results and using our filtering criteria to identify some top options to consider for the current week.
Week 14 Review:
Week 14 Rec average: 5.5
Week 14 Field average: 7.6
Season Rec average: 8.9
Season Field average: 7.9
Well, after crushing it in Week 13, we got crushed last week. My top pick, Prater, put up a nice 10-point performance, but the others all underperformed. Actually, the two kickers I recommended leaving out despite meeting our criteria had great weeks and would have let us once again outperform the field. So, the good news is that the model continued to deliver. The bad news is my personal qualitative filter let us down. Let’s see what Week 15 has in store for us!
Week 15
There are eight kickers who meet our criteria this week.
Top Plays:
Matt Bryant ($5,100)
Opponent: San Francisco – Spread: -13.5 – Team Total: 32.5 – Prop>3: 19/4
Bryant is once again my top option this week. Last week the offense only scored TDs, but that is a pretty rare occurrence. In fact it was the first time all season he hadn’t kicked at least one FG. This week they are at home and find themselves with the highest projected team total on the slate. I think they put up a bunch of points, and Bryant will find himself with more opportunities to score than he did last week.
Dustin Hopkins ($4,600)
Opponent: Carolina – Spread: -4.5 – Team Total: 27.75 – Prop>3: 9/2
Hopkins has the most FG attempts in the league, and despite his accuracy being less than stellar, he is still tied for the second most made FG on the season. As a comfortable home favorite, I like the odds that those opportunities will continue to be there this week. At $4,600, he makes for a cheap Monday night hammer, and we can relish in the glory that comes from our kicker bringing us all the cash in the final game of the week.
Steven Hauschka ($4,900)
Opponent: Los Angeles – Spread: -15 – Team Total: 26.75 – Prop>3: 7/2
Alternatively, you could decide to open your week with a kicker and get Hauschka in your lineup. Seattle is a monstrous 15-point home favorite and there should be no shortage of FG opportunities this week. He’s only missed one FG in his last seven games and is amongst the league leaders in both attempts and made FGs for the season.
Kai Forbath ($4,500)
Opponent: Indianapolis – Spread:-4 – Team Total: 24.3 – Prop>3: 7/2
Forbath took over for Blair Walsh in Week 11 and has had progressively more opportunities each week. He’s a perfect 10/10 over those four games, including 4/4 in his last game. This week he faces an Indy team who gave up five FG to Nick Novak last week. Forbath is cheap, seems to be finding his groove, and fits our model.
Dan Bailey ($5,000)
Opponent: Tampa Bay – Spread: -7 – Team Total: 26.5 – Prop>3: 5/1
The Cowboys’ offense has disappeared over the last two weeks while on the road, and Bailey’s FG opportunities have been equally absent. That should change this week as they return home to face Tampa Bay. They are projected to put up a healthy 26.5 and I think Bailey returns to form. He seems to be a bit more pricey than I’d like, but I still think he’s worth a look.
Secondary Options:
Cairo Santos ($4,800)
Opponent: Tennessee – Spread: -5.5 – Team Total: 24.25 – Prop>3: 11/2
Santos’ salary continues to be a yo-yo. It went from $4,900 to $4,500, then back up to $4,800 this week. He let us down with only three XPs last week, but I’m not giving up on him this week. The team total is barely above our cutoff, so we’ll have to watch that, but I think he’ll make a decent low-owned play. He has above average accuracy, is in the top third of attempts on the season, and should get some opportunities to kick this week.
Chandler Catanzaro ($4,800)
Opponent: New Orleans – Spread: -2.5 – Team Total: 26.25 – Prop>3: 7/1
Catanzaro has been a mediocre option all season. There have been a few flashes of opportunity, but on average he hasn’t delivered results. This week they face New Orleans, a team who likes to give up some points, and he finds himself at home where the majority of those limited opportunities have come.
Dan Carpenter ($4,700)
Opponent: Cleveland – Spread: -10 – Team Total: 26.25 – Prop>3: 13/2
Carpenter hasn’t done much this season, but playing the Browns can fix offensive problems. I still have him as a secondary option due to his track record and the week of snow Buffalo will see leading up to the game. The current forecast shows it clearing by Sunday, but if the weather doesn’t move through as quick, there could be some snow on game day.
Pre-Kick Update:
No major Sunday morning updates today. Carpenter in Buffalo makes me a bit nervous due to wind, but I’m going to leave him in the pool as a secondary option.