The Kicker Study: Week 16
Welcome to The Kicker Study!
Contrary to popular opinion, kickers can be fairly predictable. Each week we’ll be digging into the kicker position on FanDuel by seeing what we can learn from the prior weeks’ results and using our filtering criteria to identify some top options to consider for the current week.
Week 15 Review:
Week 15 Rec average: 9.1
Week 15 Field average: 9.5
Season Rec average: 8.9
Season Field average: 8.0
This was the highest scoring week of the season for kickers. During the MNF broadcast, I believe they mentioned it was one of the most accurate kicking weeks in a long time. That’s not what I would have expected for mid-December. Accuracy and opportunity aligned, and the average of all kickers was 9.5 points! Our kickers came in at 9.1, and left our season average unchanged at 8.9. We continue to outpace the field for the season by almost a full point.
Week 16
Top Plays:
Steven Hauschka ($4,800)
Opponent: Arizona – Spread:-8.5 – Team Total: 26 – Prop>3: 11/4
Hauschka come in as my favorite option this week. At 4,800, he saves us a couple hundred in cap over the next two guys in our list. Seattle is a big favorite with a 26 point projected team total. Hauschka is averaging over two FG and three XPs over his last three home games and with him having the best prop odds to kick over three FG, Vegas agrees that this week should be more of the same.
Sebastian Janikowski ($5,000)
Opponent: Indy – Spread: -3.5 – Team Total: 28.25 – Prop>3: 19/4
Sebastian has been on fire over the last several weeks. The opportunities have been there and he is capitalizing on them. Accuracy was an issue for him at the beginning of the season, but he is a perfect 13/13 over the last five games and he hasn’t missed an extra point all season in 34 attempts. That’s good.
Stephen Gostkowski ($4,800)
Opponent: Jets – Spread: -16.5 – Team Total: 30 – Prop>3: 17/4
This game has a huge spread, and the Patriots are a huge favorite. Normally I’d love the kicker in that situation, but Gostkowski makes me nervous. His FG totals over the last six games are 1,1,3,4,0, and 3. That’s not very consistent. His accuracy this season is below average, and we can’t counter that with opportunity either. New England is only in the middle of the pack with 27 FG attempts on the season. The number of XPs he gets give him a decent floor, and he’s got big upside, but overall he falls towards the middle of the top plays this week.
Dan Bailey ($4,900)
Opponent: Detroit – Spread: -7 – Team Total: 25 – Prop>3: 13/2
Bailey was fairly quiet in weeks 12-14, but he woke back up last week with four FGs and two XPs. This week Dallas is favored by a TD against Detroit, and with a team total projection of 25, he fits our criteria. I like Janikowski and Hauschka better, but I think he still makes for a fine play.
Wil Lutz ($4,800)
Opponent: Tampa Bay – Spread: -3 – Team Total: 27.75 – Prop>3: n/a
Lutz has become a fairly safe high floor/high upside option over the last several weeks. He hasn’t scored less than seven fantasy points for at least the last five weeks. His accuracy still makes me nervous as he’s only about 80 percent on the season, but he’s made his last seven attempts over the last three games. With a 27.75 projected team total, I think the opportunities will be there again this week.
Mason Crosby ($4,800)
Opponent: Minnesota – Spread: -6.5 – Team Total: 24.75 – Prop>3: 13/2
Over the course of the season, Crosby has been pretty average. He has a pretty decent floor due to all the extra points he gets, but his FG opportunities have fluctuated. This week, the criteria seem to indicate he’ll get some chances for us. The team total of 24.75 is pretty close to our cutoff, so I’ll be watching to see how it moves over the course of the week. Overall, Crosby has been pretty reliable and has only had two games this season in the low single digits. I think he’s a good option for us to consider this week.
Secondary Options:
Chris Boswell ($4,800)
Opponent: Baltimore – Spread:-5 – Team Total: 24.5 – Prop>3: 11/2
Boswell was amazing last week. He made all six of his FG attempts and ended with a huge score. However, that performance only got him to 20 made FGs on the season, and boosted his accuracy to 83% which is still below the league average. I still can’t trust him enough to make him a top option, but I guess I can see using him as a high risk, high reward play.
Pre-Kick Update:
Sat Morning Update: Nothing weather or vegas-wise I’m concerned about. Good luck!