The Kicker Study: Week 17
Welcome to The Kicker Study! Contrary to popular opinion, kickers can be fairly predictable. Each week we’ll be digging into the kicker position on FanDuel by seeing what we can learn from the prior weeks’ results and using our filtering criteria to identify some top options to consider for the current week.
Week 16 Review:
Week 14 Rec average: 7.6
Week 14 Field average: 8.2
Season Rec average: 8.8
Season Field average: 8.0
Going into next year I need to find a way for guys like Justin Tucker to bubble up. He is likely going to end the season as the top kicker, however, rarely was he highlighted here due to the Ravens not having a high enough team total or not being a home favorite.
There were a few strong kicker performances last week which raised the field average up to 8.2 which was about a half point above our rec average. We had a couple guys who got double digits for us, and a couple who underperformed, overall they could have done better. For the season, we’re still outpacing the field by almost a full point.
Week 17
We find ourselves in the final week of the season and we have six kickers who meet our criteria this week.
Dustin Hopkins ($4,800)
Opponent: Giants Spread: -8 Team Total: 26 Prop>3: 7/2
My top option this week is Dustin Hopkins. The Redskins are favored by eight points, have the fifth highest implied team total, and Hopkins comes at a 500 discount over Bryant. The opportunities continue to be there for him as he’s only had less than two FGs once in the last ten games. I’m not sure why that should change this week, and I’ll be firing him up in my contests.
Matt Bryant ($5,300)
Opponent: New Orleans Spread: -7 Team Total: 31.5 Prop>3: 17/4
Bryant is next on my list. He is the most expensive kicker this week, which I’m not thrilled about, but his performance has been living up to that price. He’s tied with Hopkins in the season long FG race, and with the Atlanta offense rolling, the volume of extra points he gets act as a nice floor. This week Atlanta has the highest implied team total on the slate, and as long as the Saints can cause a few drives to end short of the end zone, Bryant should be in line for another big week.
Adam Vinatieri ($5,200)
Opponent: Jacksonville Spread: -4.5 Team Total: 25.75 Prop>3: n/a
Over the first half of the season, Vinatieri had an eight point floor with 15-20 point upside. Over the last half, the Colts offense has been inconsistent and Vinatieri’s results have matched. He has still shown the double digit upside, but the floor has moved down to four or five points. This week I like this chances to score against a pretty bad Jacksonville team. For the price I like Bryant and Hopkins better, but I still think Adam makes a good play.
Secondary Options:
Caleb Sturgis ($4,500)
Opponent: Dallas Spread: -6 Team Total: 24.25 Prop>3: n/a
The story on Sturgis is almost identical to the one we just heard from Vinatieri. He had two or more FGs in weeks 1-10, but since then he’s been much more inconsistent. He’s got two weeks with zero FGs and two weeks with 3 or more over the last 6. This week, they are home favorites against the Cowboys, but their team total is barely above our 24 point threshold. At min price I think he’s worth a spot in a few lineups.
Chris Boswell ($4,700)
Opponent: Cleveland Spread: -7 Team Total: 25.5 Prop>3: n/a
Boswell was not a good option for most of the season, but the last few weeks have been more promising. Over the last three weeks he has nine field goals and three extra points. The criteria look good this week, but with Ben, Bell, and Brown all resting, who knows what the offense will do. The opponent is Cleveland, so hopefully they do well enough to get in FG range and Boswell can take it from there. He’s a secondary option for me this week.
Roberto Aguayo ($4,500)
Opponent: Carolina Spread: -6.5 Team Total: 26.5 Prop>3: 15/2
Aguayo has also been better of late. His accuracy and the number of FG opportunities have both increased. The Bucs have a pretty healthy implied team total, and I could see another decent outing from Roberto this week. His overall inconsistency keeps him from being a top play, but I can see using him as another min-price option.
Pre-Kick Update:
Sunday morning update:
1) Kai Forbath (4,500) becomes our 7th official rec! The Vikings team total has moved up throughout the week and now sits at 24.75, which is 1.5 points higher than where it opened. He’s the best min priced option on the board.
2) The weather looks fine in our recommended games so have a good final week!