The Kicker Study: Week 2
Welcome to The Kicker Study! Contrary to popular opinion, kickers can be fairly predictable. Each week we’ll be digging into the kicker position on FanDuel by seeing what we can learn from the prior weeks’ results and using our filtering criteria to identify some top options to consider for the current week.
Week 1 Review:
The results were mixed for our Week 1 recommendations. Five of the seven kickers highlighted in the article returned at least 2pts/1000, while less than half of the total starting kickers available did so. That’s a positive. Those five guys were fine for our cash games, but none of them finished as a high scoring option that would help us win a GPP.
Hauschka and Catanzaro were our two under performers. Why was that? I think the primary reason was their teams did not meet the Vegas expectations for offensive production. (Come on Seattle, 13 points?). Catanzaro also missed a 40+ FG which would have made his output a more respectable seven points, but it would still have been below the 2pts/1000 threshold we’re looking for.
The two highest scoring kickers of the week were Dan Bailey and Blair Walsh. Bailey’s game was a pick’em and had a team total projection of 22.5. He just missed our home favorite and implied team total (24 of more) criteria. He found himself with a ton of FG opportunities since Dallas couldn’t finish drives. Walsh didn’t make the list because he was on the road and had a low projected team total. He made four of six FGs on the day.
Week 2:
There are eight kickers to pick from this week whose team meets our primary filters of looking for home favorites with an implied team total of 24 or more. Now let’s dig a little deeper!
Top Plays:
Chris Boswell ($4,600)
Opponent: Cincinnati Spread: -3 Team Total: 25.75
Update
Due to the weather forecast in Pittsburgh, I am downgrading Boswell and no longer recommend him as an option this week. There’s about a 50% chance of rain throughout the game window and rain isn’t good for a kicker. I don’t see a need to go here at this point when we have several other options in the same price range.
I like Boswell for the best combination of price and opportunity. As I mentioned last week, Boswell managed to score double-digits nine of the 14 games he started last year and had the most FG attempts per game. Last week, the Pittsburgh offense lived up to expectations, and they are expected to score almost 26 points again this week against Cincinnati. That should lead to some FG opportunities for Boswell.
Graham Gano ($4,900)
Opponent: San Francisco Spread: -13 Team Total: 29.25
The indicators look good for Gano this week. If Vegas is at all accurate with their projections, he should be positioned to get several FG and XP opportunities. Last year he was tied for 5th in made FGs and was first in made XPs. He scored nine fantasy points last week at Denver when they had a projected team total of 21.75. If they put up the 29 they are expected to score this week, I like his chances of getting to double-digits.
Stephen Gostkowski ($5,200)
Opponent: Miami Spread:-6.5 Team Total: 24
On the plus side, Gostkowski is a healthy home favorite and is one of the most consistent scoring kickers in fantasy. On the other hand he plays for the Patriots, and by including him in the article I have to cheer for him. Cheering for the Patriots causes me a great deal of pain. I think the numbers will be there this week, but it’s worth keeping in mind he’s the most expensive option and his team total barely makes the cutoff at 24.
Matt Prater ($4,600)
Opponent: Tennessee Spread: -5.5 Team Total: 26.25
Prater looks to be another nice low priced option this week. He finds himself back home in the dome and going up against a Titans team who gave up a bunch of kicker points to Blair Walsh last week. Some people stay away from Prater because he has below average career accuracy stats from 40-49 yards. However, if you look into those figures, you’ll see that since joining Detroit he’s significantly above average from that distance. Being a solid home favorite combined with a high team total gets him in the list this week.
Chandler Catanzaro ($4,900)
Opponent: Tampa Bay Spread: -6.5 Team Total: 28.25
Catanzaro once again finds himself a healthy home favorite, playing indoors, with one of the highest implied team totals of the day. As I mentioned above, he let us down last week by missing his lone FG opportunity and only scoring three points. In 2015, he had the 2nd most XPs but was close to the middle of the pack in FG opportunities. That was the hesitation I mentioned in the article last week, and it rang true again. I’ll be keeping an eye on this situation to see if he becomes an exception to the rule.
Secondary Options:
Sebastian Janikowski ($4,600), Josh Lambo ($4,500), and Brandon McManus ($4,700)
All three of these guys pass our primary criteria, but I don’t see them being as strong of options as the previous five guys. The primary thing dragging them down is their FG accuracy percentages. All three of them have career total FG and 40-49 yard percentages which are below average. They have all demonstrated the ability to put up some big games, and they all pass our primary criteria (therefore they are in play), but if I’m looking to narrow my pool of players, the guys who aren’t as accurate go to the bottom of my list.
Others to Consider:
Josh Brown is expected to kick for the Giants this week after his one-game suspension, and he meets our criteria. I don’t see him listed in the player pool at this point which is why I didn’t do a detailed write up, but if for some reason he is listed in a contest you are in, he can be considered.
Pre-Kick Update:
As of 6 a.m. the risk of rain has diminished in most of the games I was monitoring earlier in the week. As noted above, the Pittsburgh game is the one that looks to have the highest risk.
As far as Vegas line movement, the OAK and CAR team totals have dropped by less than a point since I wrote the original article. I’m not really too concerned about that because they are still above our threshold and the player props indicate that Gano and Janikowski have two of the best odds of kicking 3 or more field goals at 4/1 and 5/1 respectively. McManus also has a 4/1 odds to kick 3 or more and has seen their team total increase by 1.25 points. Catanzaro is at 19/4 and their total has increased by .5.