The Kicker Study: Week 3
Welcome to The Kicker Study! Contrary to popular opinion, kickers can be fairly predictable.
Each week we’ll be digging into the kicker position on FanDuel by seeing what we can learn from the prior weeks’ results and using our filtering criteria to identify some top options to consider for the current week.
Week 2 Review:
It was another decent week for our kickers. Gano and McManus came up big, putting up the top and second highest kicker scores respectively.
Only Gostkowski and Janikowski scored below the kicker average. Gostkowski was cruising right along until the offense stalled out in the second half after Garrapolo’s injury, and Janikowski missed a 50 yarder that could have gotten him up to 9 points. So while we had a couple guys underperform again last week, the criteria successfully gave us a player pool which had the opportunity to put up points.
Week 3
I will be focusing on the main slate this week, so Thursday and Monday games will not be considered. There are 8 kickers who meet our criteria in this game set. This week I also added the Player Prop Odds for kicking over 3 field goals.
Top Plays:
Dan Bailey ($4,700)
Opponent: Chicago – Spread: -7 – Team Total: 26 – Prop >3: 4/1
Bailey has a lot going for him this week. First of all, he has a home matchup vs. the Bears where they are favored by a touchdown and have an implied team total of 26 points. He has delivered solid performances in weeks 1 and 2, has 4/1 odds to kick over 3 field goals which is second best on the slate, and with accuracy rates over 90%, he grades out as the top option this week.
Graham Gano ($4,900)
Opponent: Minnesota – Spread: -7.5 – Team Total: 25.25 – Prop >3: 11/2
Gano’s leg delivered for us last week in a big way. He put up 18 points and was the top overall option in the player pool. Carolina finds themselves at home again this week as big favorites against the Vikings. Their team total is a few points lower this week at 25.25, but it is still above our 24 point threshold. Minnesota’s defense may be just good enough to keep Carolina out of the end zone, forcing a few more FG attempts.
Josh Brown ($4,700)
Opponent: Washington – Spread: – 4.5 – Team Total: 25.5 – Prop >3: 6/1
Josh Brown returned last week after a one game suspension and took advantage of being in an offense that moved the ball but couldn’t find the end zone. As I indicated last week, he met our criteria but was not in the FanDuel player pool. This was unfortunate as he put up 11 points. This week he once again passes our filters, and he gets to face a Washington team who has given up 9 points to kickers in each of the first two weeks.
Adam Vinatieri ($4,700)
Opponent: San Diego – Spread -2.5 – Team Total: 27 – Prop >3: 13/2
Indianapolis will be facing San Diego this week in what is projected to be one of the highest scoring games of the week. Indy has the second highest implied team total at 27, but the line is a slim -2.5 points. Vinatieri is getting up there in age, but continues to deliver. He’s scored in double digits in each of the first two games of the season, and once again finds himself at home. Automatic Adam (really, that’s his nickname) has accuracy percentages that show that he’s, well, automatic, and should put up the points again this week.
Secondary Options:
The next three kickers are going to put Vegas and our model to the test. All three are big home favorites with high team totals. Several also have good prop odds, but these kickers have not performed up to this point in the season.
Steven Hauschka ($5,100)
Opponent: San Francisco – Spread: -9.5 – Team Total: 25 – Prop >3: 7/2
Hauschka and the Seahawks are 9.5 point favorites and have an implied team total of 25. This offense has been dreadful through two weeks and Hauschka’s results have been less than stellar. If Vegas is right and the offense gets it going this week, Steven should have a decent game. He has the best odds to kick more than 3 field goals at 7/2. As the most expensive kicker on the board this week, I’m putting him in the second tier.
Mason Crosby ($4,700)
Opponent: Detroit – Spread: -8 – Team Total: 28 – Prop >3: 4/1
Green Bay returns home after two road games where they have not generated many kicking opportunities. This week they have the highest implied team total of our game set at 28 points, and they are 8 point favorites. He is also tied with Bailey for the second best odds to kick more than 3 field goals at 4/1. The fact that Crosby has been dreadful in the first two weeks, combined with the fact that his accuracy percentages are below average, put him in the second tier.
Andrew Franks ($4,500)
Opponent: Cleveland – Spread: -10 – Team Total 25.75 – Prop >3: 19/4
Andrew Franks is the second year starter for the Dolphins. Since the start of 2015, they are averaging one FG attempt per game. One….attempt……per…..game. Franks made 79% of them. One attempt per game and below average accuracy is not a combination we’re looking for. That being said, I’m not sure how many times they were 10 point favorites at home and were also expected to score 26 points. Vegas is saying he should buck the trend this week, and if the player props look good I may be convinced to take a chance. Use with caution, something smells fishy.
Ryan Succop ($4,500)
Opponent: Oakland – Spread -1.5 – Team Total: 24.25 – Prop >3: 13/2
Update: Due to line movement I am no longer recommending Succop as an option
Succop gets the lowest ranking of the kickers who meet our criteria. The Titans are barely favorites, and their team total is just above our minimum threshold. Any downward movement and they fall off. Ryan is also hovering right at the average accuracy line. This is the first time he has met the criteria this season, but he only put up 4 and 5 points in the first two weeks where he fell below our cut line. That doesn’t give me a lot of confidence. With the stronger options we have this week, I can’t see why you would use Succop over them. Again, use with caution.
Others to Consider:
Update: due to line movement and weather conditions, I am no longer recommending Santos as an option
Cairo Santos ($5,000)
Opponent: New York Jets – Spread: -3 – Team Total: 23.25 – Prop >3: 13/2
Santos is a home favorite, but their team total falls just under our target of 24 points. That being said, he has been fantastic so far this year scoring 10 and 15 points in the first two weeks. I actually like him over most of the second tier options this week.
Pre-Kick Update:
The Tennessee team total has come down 1.5 points since the middle of the week and it now sits below our minimum point threshold. I am no longer recommending Succop as a formal option. The lines for Santos and the Chiefs have also come down throughout the week, and the weather seems to show some sloppy conditions, so I am removing him from “others to consider” as well.
As always, feel free to reach out in the comments section or on twitter if you have any questions!