The Kicker Study: Week 4
Welcome to The Kicker Study! Contrary to popular opinion, kickers can be fairly predictable. Each week we’ll be digging into the kicker position on FanDuel by seeing what we can learn from the prior weeks’ results and using our filtering criteria to identify some top options to consider for the current week.
Week 3 Review:
Week 3 provided us an opportunity to continue to learn and refine our strategy. At the beginning of the Secondary Options section, I said we’d be putting our model to the test due to the Vegas data points we use indicating good plays, while those kickers’ YTD season results looked horrible. Well, Vegas was right. Hauschka and Crosby were two of the biggest home favorites with high projected team totals, AND they had two of the best Prop odds to kick more than three field goals. They both put up double-digit points. Bailey also had good prop odds and finished about average. I definitely like the addition of props as another data point to consider. You’ll see I’m adding red zone efficiency to the mix this week to give us an even more clear picture on where we can look for those sweet kicker points.
Week 4:
Once again, I will be focusing on the main slate this week, so Thursday and Monday games will not be considered. There are 5 kickers who meet our criteria.
Top Plays
Dustin Hopkins ($4,500)
Opponent: Cleveland – Spread: -7.5 – Team Total: 26.75 – Prop >3: 17/4
Hopkins has 11 field goals already through three games! Why? Because Washington can move the ball, but they can’t finish. So far this season, they are 4th in Red Zone Scoring Attempts per game, but have only scored TDs 21% of the time. That’s good for 31st in the league. We’ll be watching these stats going forward as it seems they may be another piece to the kicker puzzle. This week sets up as an almost too good to be true scenario. They are big home favorites against Cleveland and have the 3rd highest team total of the week. Combine that with their red zone efficiency stats and his super cheap price, and we’ve got our top kicker.
Justin Tucker ($5,100)
Opponent: Oakland – Spread: -3.5 – Team Total: 24.75 – Prop >3: 9/2
The Ravens also meet our criteria this week. Tucker has the second most field goals on the season and is a perfect 9/9. Baltimore has been successful moving the ball to their opponent’s side of the field, but unlike Washington, they stall out before they even get to the red zone. Seven of their nine field goals have been from 40+ yards. Tucker has been money so far this year, and I like him to score some points for us again this week. He’s the most expensive of the Top Plays this week, so feel free to save some salary with one of the other guys if needed.
Josh Lambo ($4,500)
Opponent: Saints – Spread: -3.5 – Team Total: 28.75 – Prop >3: 13/2
Lambo and the Chargers get the gift of playing the Saints at home this week. They have the highest implied team total on the slate at 28.75 points. The Chargers are tied with Washington at 4.7 Red Zone Scoring Attempts per game and are only scoring a TD on 50% of their trips there. I give Lambo a slight downgrade due to his below average career accuracy, however his only miss this year came on a 50+ yard attempt. He seems to be another good, cheap option this week.
Chris Boswell ($4,800)
Opponent: Chiefs – Spread: -4.5 – Team Total: 26 – Prop >3: 13/2
The Steelers went to Philly last week and got smashed. A lone Boswell FG was their only score. This week they come home and find themselves 4.5 point favorites with the fourth highest team total on the slate. Boswell hasn’t gotten too many FG opportunities due to the strong Red Zone efficiency stats Pittsburgh has, but it seems Vegas thinks that changes this week.
Secondary Options:
Chandler Catanzaro ($4,600)
Opponent: Los Angeles – Spread: -7.5 – Team Total: 25.25 – Prop >3: N/A
Like Boswell, Catanzaro finds himself on a team that scores a good number of touchdowns and hasn’t given him very many opportunities to kick field goals. As big, indoor, home favorites he should get some looks this week, but the fact that Vegas is not offering a >3 kicker prop makes me nervous. He’s an accurate kicker that has shown upside in the past, he just needs to get the opportunity to go for three. He’s on the low end of the players that fit our criteria this week.
Others to Consider:
Graham Gano ($4,800)
Opponent: @Atlanta – Spread -3 – Team Total: 26.5 – Prop >3: 17/4
Being on the road is the only thing about Gano that isn’t ideal this week. The Panthers are favored, are playing in a dome, have a high team total, and Gano has one of the best kicker props in the player pool. Even though he and the Carolina offense let us down last week, I’m not getting off him in this match up. Last week’s performance also earned him a price drop to 4,800. Consider it a bonus and feel free to fire him up!
Pre-Kick Update:
I’ll be updating this section Saturday night or Sunday morning if there is anything to note based on late Vegas line movement, weather, injury status etc.