The Kicker Study: Week 5
Welcome to The Kicker Study! Contrary to popular opinion, kickers can be fairly predictable. Each week we’ll be digging into the kicker position on FanDuel by seeing what we can learn from the prior weeks’ results and using our filtering criteria to identify some top options to consider for the current week.
Week 4 Review:
Our Week 4 kickers were a pile of average cash game mediocrity. Our under performer was Chris Boswell. He underperformed due to the Steelers scoring touchdown after touchdown. No Field Goals were required for the spanking they put on the Chiefs. Lambo came through with an 11-point performance and landed as our top performer. When looking at the full Thursday – Monday slate, the Vegas prop factor pointed to Nugent with the best odds, but several of the other double-digit performers did not have very good prop odds to kick >3 Field Goals. Overall through the first four weeks, we’ve done a good job of identifying kickers who get us a “safe” 7-9 points. For the most part we’ve avoided the low single digit busts, and we’ve found several guys who put up double digit points each week.
Week 5:
There are 6 kickers who meet our criteria this week. The CAR/TB does not yet have a line. I will update the article if any of those kickers meet our criteria once their lines are out.
Top Plays
Adam Vinatieri ($4,700)
Opponent: Chicago – Spread: -4.5 – Team Total: 26 – Prop >3: 19/4
Vinatieri is a perfect 8/8 on the season and they are averaging 2 FG and 2.5 XP per game on the season. This week they find themselves at home against the Bears, and they have the 4th highest team total on the slate. Automatic Adam continues to be a safe, high floor option, and I think that continues this week. At 4,700, his salary gives us a bit of savings off of Tucker and Gostkowski. He’s my favorite option this week.
Justin Tucker ($5,000)
Opponent: Washington – Spread: -3.5 – Team Total: 25 – Prop >3: 17/4
The Ravens meet our criteria again this week, and what follows will look very familiar. I mean, why recreate the wheel if nothing has changed? Tucker has the third most field goals on the season and is a perfect 11/11. Baltimore has been successful moving the ball to their opponent’s side of the field, but unlike Washington, they stall out before they even get to the red zone. Eight of their eleven field goals have been from 40+ yards. Tucker has been money so far this year, and I like him to score some points for us again this week. One thing we’ll need to watch going forward is this going for two thing. Baltimore attempted a two point conversion twice last week which kept Tucker from getting to double digits. If that trend continues, it could result in a slight downgrade to him in future weeks.
Secondary Options:
Mason Crosby ($4,500)
Opponent: New York Giants – Spread -7.5 – Team Total: 27.75 – Prop >3: 11/2
Crosby came through the last time he met our criteria. This line was released a bit later than the others, but the Packers once again find themselves as big home favorites. My reservation is the same as the last time; Crosby has below average accuracy stats. His prop odds also are in alignment with the following Secondary Options. That being said, the price is good and he is worthy of a making a few of your lineups this week.
Brandon McManus ($4,700)
Opponent: Atlanta – Spread: -4.5 – Team Total: 25.75 – Prop >3: 7/1
Brandon McManus and the Broncos meet our criteria this week. They are at home against the Falcons, and so far he’s made 7 of 8 FGs on the season which is just above the league average. He is also averaging 2.5 XPs per game which has helped give him a bit of a floor. The main reason he finds himself as a secondary option is his career accuracy being below average. McManus is in play, however like the two other guys that follow, there are a few red flags that keep them from being Top Plays.
Chris Boswell ($4,700)
Opponent: New York Jets – Spread: -7 – Team Total: 27.75 – Prop >3: 11/2
Boswell is being hurt from Pittsburgh’s offense being really, really, good. They are just scoring too many touchdowns! While he’s not likely to put up a 0 because the XP floor is there, his FG opportunities so far this year have been limited. Once again, this week they are expected to put up points and hopefully we’ll see more opportunities going forward.
Sebastian Janikowski ($4,700)
Opponent: San Diego – Spread: -4.5 – Team Total: 27.25 – Prop >3: 15/2
Janikowski season is very similar to Boswell. He only has 3 FG’s on the season, but has 11 XPs. The lack of FG opportunities and his Vegas prop make him a secondary option even though they are projected to put up a bunch of points. Like Boswell, he has upside, but I’m waiting to see if the FG opportunities start to materialize before I go all in and back him as a top play. Both Boswell and Janikowski are in play, but I think Vinatieri is safer at the same price.
Others To Consider:
Blair Walsh ($4,600)
Opponent: Houston – Spread -6 – Team Total: 23 – Prop >3: 4/1
Walsh finds his team total at 1 point below our target of 24 points, however that is the only thing that isn’t in his favor. They are big home favorites playing in a dome, and he has the best Vegas prop odds to kick over 3 FG of any kicker on the slate. I think he is a solid option this week, and will probably use him above all three of our secondary options.
Stephen Gostkowski ($5,100)
Opponent: Cleveland – Spread: -10 – Team Total: 28.5 – Prop >3: 9/2
On the plus side, the Patriots are 10 point favorites, Gostkowski has a decent FG prop, and the Pats have the highest team total on the slate. On the downside Gostkowski is the most expensive kicker, is on the road, and is only 6/8 on the season. I think he’s a fine GPP play as he has a ton of upside and his price will keep some people off him, but I think our Top Plays will provide a safer return on our investment.
Pre-Kick Update:
Wind looks like it will be an issue in Baltimore today, so downgrade Tucker a bit. There has also been some movement in our props that you may want to consider. I’m not removing plays, but you may want to reprioritize based on this info.
1) Chris Boswell – Vegas has removed the prop for Boswell to kick over 3 FG. They are still huge favorites and he should have a decent floor, but I’m not as confident in Boswell’s chances of putting up a huge number.
2) Brandon McManus – Vegas has also removed the over 3 prop for McManus. Same story as above.