The Kicker Study: Week 6
Welcome to The Kicker Study!
Contrary to popular opinion, kickers can be fairly predictable. Each week we’ll be digging into the kicker position on FanDuel by seeing what we can learn from the prior weeks’ results and using our filtering criteria to identify some top options to consider for the current week.
Week 5 Review:
Last week was a good one for our kickers. We featured both Vinatieri as our top play and Janikowski as a secondary play, and they finished as the 1st and 2nd overall performers. I downgraded Tucker Sunday morning once we saw the weather conditions, and unsurprisingly, he was our lone under-performer. Overall, our picks averaged 11 points compared to an average of about 8 for the field.
Week 6
There are quite a few home favorites with high team totals this week and nine teams meet our base criteria. I am only comfortable in rostering 7 of those 9 due to a variety of factors that I have outlined below.
Top Plays:
Steven Hauschka ($4,800)
Opponent: Atlanta – Spread: -6 – Team Total: 26 – Prop>3: 10/3
Downgrade due to weather
Steven Hauschka makes the cut for one of the top plays this week. The Seahawks are projected to score 26 points, are the third highest home favorite on the slate, and he has the best prop odds to kick more than 3 field goals. Hauschka is a perfect 8/8 on the season, and should get an opportunity to build on that this week.
Ryan Succop ($4,500)
Opponent: Cleveland – Spread: -6.5 – Team Total: 26 – Prop>3: 5/1
This is the first time Succop has found himself in our top plays section. This is also the first time Tennessee has found themselves at home, favored by a touchdown, and projected to score 26 points. That’s what happens when you get to play Cleveland! At 5/1 to kick over 3 FG, he has the 3rd best prop odds. I’m going to trust the process and say the time is right to get Succop(and his min price) into our lineups.
Stephen Gostkowski ($5,000)
Opponent: Cincinnati – Spread: -8.5 – Team Total: 27.75 – Prop>3: 19/4
Let’s start with the negatives: Gostkowski has already missed 3 FG on the season and being 7 for 10 is not good. However, Brady is back and this offense is going to be different going forward. Vegas agrees as the Pats are big home favorites and have one of the highest team totals on the slate. Stephen also has one of the best prop lines this week. He is expensive, but I’m willing to overlook some of these early season struggles as I think his FG opportunities start to increase significantly with a Brady led offense.
Secondary Options:
Nick Novak ($4,500)
Opponent: Indianapolis – Spread: -3 – Team Total: 24.5 – Prop>3: 11/2
Nick Novak is an interesting case. He is tied for the 3rd most FG on the season at 11. He’s also missed 3! The good news is that he is tied for the most opportunities in the league, and I guess the downgrade associated with missing those FGs is offset somewhat since 2 of those 3 misses were from over 50 yards. This week he’s at home against a Indy team that even let Connor Barth score double digits last week, and Connor Barth is B-A-D. Novak has put up double digits 3 of 5 weeks and the shutout at New England has been his only dud. I think he is worth a spot in some of your lineups this week.
Chandler Catanzaro ($4,600)
Opponent: NY Jets – Spread -7.5 – Team Total: 27.25 – Prop>3: 7/1
The numbers are indicating that Catanzaro should also get a chance to kick this weekend. So far this season he’s made 6/7 field goals which is just below the midpoint of the league, but he’s made 13 extra points which has given him an okay floor. Even though his season long results aren’t the best up to this point, I’m going to trust our criteria to identify those situations where the current opportunity deviates from what we’ve seen up to this point.
Mason Crosby ($4,600)
Opponent: Dallas – Spread: -4.5 – Team Total: 25.75 – Prop>3: n/a
Crosby made our list last week and come through with 12 points. Well his price only came up 100 dollars and he still finds himself in a good situation. Green Bay is running the 7th most red zone plays in the league and are only middle of the road when it comes to scoring TDs on those opportunities. If those trends continue he should get more opportunities to kick and hopefully a few of those will come this week and will allow him to build on his perfect 7/7 numbers on the season. I am a bit surprised/concerned that Vegas is not offering prop odds on him, so I’ll be watching this closely over the rest of the week.
Dan Carpenter ($4,700)
Opponent: San Francisco – Spread -7.5 – Team Total 25.75 – Prop>3: 7/1
Downgrade due to wind
This is also the first time that Dan Carpenter has found his way into this article. This is not surprising as they haven’t had a projected team total over 22 all season. This week they are projected to win by 7.5 and score almost 26 points. Those numbers get him on our secondary plays list. I don’t love the track record as he’s 7-9 on the season and the two misses were in the 40 yard range. He hasn’t even attempted a FG from 50 plus. He is firmly in as the last option to consider.
Others to Consider:
Disclaimer:
Connor Barth meets our criteria but is only 5-8 for FG attempts on the season and does not have a vegas prop. His performance and lack of a prop is enough of a downgrade that I am not confident in recommending him as a play, but wanted to note that he does meet our base criteria.
Janikowski also meets our criteria, but barely. As of Wednesday evening they are only 1 point favorites, have a team total right on the 24 point cutoff, and Vegas is not offering odds on kicking over 3 FG. In my book that’s not worth the risk when we have several other options who line up better on paper. Sunday Update: There is also wind and rain in the forecast. No thanks.
Pre-Kick Update:
Weather. Rain. Wind. Oh my!
There’s weather to watch today!
1) Hauschka – Downgrade due to weather. It’s supposed to be raining and moderately windy in Seattle this afternoon. I’m downgradeing Hauschka off my top play due to weather. Vegas still has the prop at 10/3, but use at your own risk.
2) Carpenter was already at the bottom of the list, but I’m removing him due to the 20 MPH winds.
3) Slight upgrade for Novak due to Vegas prop improving to 5/1