The Kicker Study: Week 7

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Welcome to The Kicker Study! Contrary to popular opinion, kickers can be fairly predictable.

Each week we’ll be digging into the kicker position on FanDuel by seeing what we can learn from the prior weeks’ results and using our filtering criteria to identify some top options to consider for the current week.

Week 6 Review

Sometimes you exceed expectations, sometimes you don’t. Last week was pretty average for our kickers. Like literally, average. Our kickers averaged eight points and that’s what the field’s number was as well.

We had five guys who finished above eight, one guy on the number, and three below. Two of our underperformers were impacted by the offense scoring four TDs and getting no XP opportunities. The offenses performed, but never stalled out in FG range.

Week 7

This week we have eight kickers who meet our criteria. Some of them have pretty healthy lines, and a few are right on our favored and team total cutoffs. We’ll have to monitor movement throughout the week.

Top Plays

Mike Nugent ($4,600)
Opponent: Cleveland – Spread: -10 – Team Total: 27.75 – Prop>3: 7/2

Nugent gets the privilege of playing Cleveland this week. His price, line, team total, and year to date results line up to get him in our Top Plays section. Cincinnati is tied for the second most FG attempts on the season with 15 and Mike has made 13 of them. His two misses were both from 50 yards or more. He is tied for the best prop odds to kick over three FG, so let’s hope Cinci’s FG trends continue this week!

Matt Bryant ($4,700)
Opponent: San Diego – Spread: -6.5 – Team Total: 29.75 – Prop>3: 11/2

Matt Bryant looks to be in a position to score a bunch of points this week. The Falcons have the highest team total on the slate and are favored by a TD. He’s had a solid season so far and finds himself at home in the dome. While he’s had some accuracy issues in the past, this season tells a different story. He’s a perfect 12/12 this season which puts him tied for seventh in total field goals made.

Mason Crosby ($4,700)
Opponent: Chicago – Spread -8.5 – Team Total: 27.25 – Prop>3: 9/2

If you are playing the Thursday – Sunday slate, keep Crosby in mind. He’s put up double digits the last two weeks and the indicators look good for that streak to extend to a third week. Crosby’s perfect on the season and with Rogers and the offense being good but not great, the FG opportunities should continue to be there.

Cairo Santos ($4,800)
Opponent: New Orleans – Spread: -6.5 – Team Total: 28.25 – Prop>3: 7/2

Santos finds himself in one of the best scenarios he’s seen all season. The Chiefs are strong home favorites, and they have the second highest team total on the slate. In their two home games this year, Cairo had 10 and six points respectively. I think he gets to double digits again this week and it seems that Vegas agrees. Santos is tied with Nugent with the best prop odds at 7/2.

Brandon McManus ($4,700)
Opponent: Houston – Spread: -7.5 – Team Total: 24.25 – Prop>3: 19/4

The indicators are a bit mixed for McManus this week. I like the -7.5 line, but the team total of 24.25 is just above our line. He is averaging two XP and almost three FG per game at home this year. He’s a perfect 12/12 from inside 50 yards, but has missed both his attempts over 50. He’s had his ups and downs, but with this weeks situation, his results over the last few weeks, and the price, he lands in the Top Plays section.

Secondary Options

Matt Prater ($4,600)
Opponent: Washington – Spread: -1 – Team Total: 24.75 – Prop>3: 13/2

Prater is first up in the Secondary Options section. A small downward line movement in either team total or spread could knock him off the list by Sunday. He has only attempted four FG at home over three games this season. That doesn’t give me much confidence, especially when he barely meets our criteria.

Ryan Succop ($4,500)
Opponent: Indianapolis – Spread: -2.5 – Team Total: 25 – Prop>3: n/a

Succop let us down last week when Tennessee scored four TDs and failed to give him a FG attempt. At least he made all four of his XP opportunities. This week he is back on the list, but all things considered he is more of a secondary option. The team total is barely above our threshold, they are small favorites, and he is amongst the bottom of the league in FG attempts on the season. The criteria say that should change this week, but we saw what happened last week.

Jason Myers ($4,500)
Opponent: Oakland – Spread: -1.5 – Team Total: 25 – Prop>3: 5/1

Jacksonville is another team that has not attempted very many FGs this season. They are small home favorites with a team total of 25 and that is good enough for Myers to get on the list. Like the others in this section, I’m more confident in the players from our Top Plays section than I am with kickers who barely make our current week criteria and who don’t have season long results to match.

Pre-Kick Update

I’ll be updating this section Saturday night or Sunday morning if there is anything to note based on late Vegas line movement, weather, injury status etc.

About the Author

sportsgrinder
Mike Sommer (sportsgrinder)

Mike Sommer is a husband, father, and proud University of Illinois Alumnus. He has been playing DFS since 2012, and has been a lifelong sports card collector. He shares strategies on combining both the hobby and business sides of collecting via his podcast and blog which can be found at WaxPackHero.com. You can also follow him on Twitter @TheMikeSommer.