The Kicker Study: Week 8
Welcome to The Kicker Study! Contrary to popular opinion, kickers can be fairly predictable. Each week we’ll be digging into the kicker position on FanDuel by seeing what we can learn from the prior weeks’ results and using our filtering criteria to identify some top options to consider for the current week.
Week 7 Review:
Week 7 Rec Average: 9.8 pts
Week 7 Field Average: 8.3 pts
Season Rec Average: 9.4 pts
Season Field Average: 8.2
Week 7 was a good one for our kickers. They averaged 9.8 points compared to 8.3 for the field. Our lowest was Nugent with seven points and he was, unfortunately, my top play. The opportunity was there, but by missing two field goals he didn’t capitalize on it. Let’s look to keep it rolling this week!
Week 8:
Once again there are 8 kickers who meet our criteria this week. Several of them have team totals within 1 point of our cutoff. As always I’ll be making a final update Saturday or Sunday if any line movement or weather impacts the plays.
Top Plays:
Matt Bryant ($4,800)
Opponent: Green Bay – Spread: -3 – Team Total: 27.75 – Prop>3: 13/2
Matt Bryant looks once again to be in a position to score a bunch of points this week as the Falcons have the highest team total on the slate. Bryant came through last week with 13 points, and I think he builds on the solid season he’s had so far at home in the dome. He’s 15 of 16 on the year, which ranks him at 6th amongst kickers.
Brandon McManus ($4,800)
Opponent: San Diego – Spread: -6.5 – Team Total: 25.75 – Prop>3: 5/1
Due to the team total dropping, McManus no longer meets our criteria
Like Bryant, McManus makes the top play section for the second week in a row. They are once again favored by a touchdown, and this week their team total is a healthy 25.75 points. McManus remained perfect inside 50 yards and finds himself tied for 7th in made FGs on the season. Outside of the first game of the year where he only put up 3 points, he’s been a pretty safe option with mid-teens upside.
Dan Bailey ($4,700)
Opponent: Philadelphia – Spread: -4.5 – Team Total: 24 – Prop>3: 15/2
Due to the Dallas team total dropping, Bailey no longer meets the criteria.
Will Bailey be out of sight, out of mind coming back after a bye week? I hope so. It looks like a good week to get him in our lineups. He is a home favorite against a defense that should be good enough to cause a few drives to stall out inside FG range. Bailey is averaging almost 2 FG and 3 XP per week and has a fairly safe floor, and that safety also comes with the mid-teens upside we saw in weeks 1 and 6.
Nick Novak ($4,500)
Opponent: Detroit – Spread: -3 – Team Total: 24 – Prop>3: 5/1
Novak’s prop odds have moved to 7/2 which is the best amongst players who meet our criteria
Novak is back on the list this week. He is a home favorite against a less than stellar Detroit defense. The Texans have the most FG attempts on the season at 19, and Novak has converted 16 of them which is good for 4th in the league. There is a bit of an accuracy risk with him, but at 84% this season, Novak is right around the league average.
Secondary Options:
Mike Nugent ($4,600)
Opponent: Washington – Spread: -3 – Team Total: 24.75 – Prop>3: 10/3
Oh Mike Nugent, why can’t you be more accurate? The Bengals have attempted 18 FG on the season which is tied for second. The problem is Nugent has only made 14 of them. That’s a 78% accuracy rate which is below league average. The sheer volume of attempts has somewhat offset his less than stellar accuracy, but he remains a high risk, high reward option. We have the 5/5 upside we saw against Miami, and at the same time the 0/1 and 2 XP downside we saw against Dallas. The criteria align again this week and he is worth consideration.
Ryan Succop ($4,500)
Opponent: Jacksonville – Spread: -3.5 – Team Total: 24.5 – Prop>3: n/a
Succop is the last player that meets our criteria that I’m considering. Tennessee just doesn’t kick that many FG’s. Below average opportunity, combined with average accuracy creates a situation similar to last week where he meets our criteria and gets 10 points. I think a score like that is his upside, and while we’d be happy with that, I think the other options we have get us there more consistently. The criteria are there for a reason, they work, but even so, some options are safer than others.
The “Are you nuts, why would I play these guys” Tier:
OK. Outside of meeting our primary indicators, there are very few positives in these next two guys. However, part of evaluating this model is capturing the results of all the kickers who meet it. We don’t necessarily have to use all these kickers in our lineups, but I still want to document who made the list.
Graham Gano ($4,700)
Opponent: Arizona – Spread: -2.5 – Team Total: 25.25 – Prop>3: 15/2
Gano meets our criteria this week, but has been a pretty risky proposition this year. He’s only 9/12 on the season, and in addition he’s 14/16 on XPs. I don’t like that. He hasn’t attempted more than 1 FG in the last three games. I don’t like that either. Once again, he meets the criteria so I’m listing him, but I can’t see using him over any of the previous players I’ve written up.
Roberto Aguayo ($4,500)
Opponent: Oakland – Spread: -1 – Team Total: 25 – Prop>3: n/a
Due to line movement Aguayo is no longer a formal recommendation
No, just no. Don’t use Aguayo. He’s 6 of 11 on the year. That’s the worst in the league no matter how you look at it. I am praying that the line moves in Oakland’s favor so he falls out of our “criteria” list by Sunday. I don’t even want him on the record as a kicker that meets the criteria.(Now watch him go out and nail 5/5 and put up 20 points)
Pre-Kick Update:
1) The tables have turned in this game and Oakland is not favored. Aguayo no longer meets our criteria.
2) Denver is still a home favorite, but their team total has dropped under 24 and no longer meets our criteria.
3) Same story in Dallas. They are still favored, but their team total dropped to 23.75.
4) FYI. Nugent still meets the criteria and is in play, but his prop has moved down to 19/4.
5) FWIW, Novak’s prop odds to kick more than 3 field goals has moved to 7/2 which is the best amongst the players who meet our criteria.