The Kicker Study: Week 9
Welcome to The Kicker Study!
Contrary to popular opinion, kickers can be fairly predictable. Each week we’ll be digging into the kicker position on FanDuel by seeing what we can learn from the prior weeks’ results and using our filtering criteria to identify some top options to consider for the current week.
Week 8 Review:
Week 8 Rec Average: 9.6 fps
Week 8 Field Average: 8.1 fps
Season Rec Average: 9.4 fps
Season Field Average: 8.2 fps
After line movements late in the week, we ended up with a smaller pool of kickers last week. Our worst performer again was Nugent only having three extra points. However, three of our five hit double digits, which was nice. Overall, our kickers averaged 9.6 fantasy points while the field averaged 8.1.
Week 9:
This week we have six kickers who meet the criteria and two additional options to consider.
Top Plays:
Josh Lambo ($4,600)
Opponent: Tennessee – Spread: -5 – Team Total: 26 – Prop>3: 5/1
Josh Lambo lands as my top option this week. The price and situation are just too good. The Chargers are favored by five and are projected to score 26 points. He’s tied for second in the league for made FGs this season with 17. He’s made four FG in two of the last three games and that is what we’re looking for to help set our teams apart from the pack.
Cairo Santos ($4,700)
Opponent: Jacksonville – Spread: -8.5 – Team Total: 27 – Prop>3: 10/3
Santos is another top option this week. As a big home favorite he should get plenty of opportunity to put up points. He’s averaging 9.3 FP per game this year, and that breaks down to two FG and just over two XPs per game. His accuracy is okay, but not great, which makes him a bit more risky than the other guys in this tier. He’s 14/17 on the year, which is right around the league average. At 10/3, he has the best prop odds of the field this week, so overall, I think he makes a fine play.
Mason Crosby ($4,700)
Opponent: Indianapolis – Spread: -7 – Team Total: 30 – Prop>3: 5/1
The Packers are favored by a touchdown and have the highest projected team total on the slate. Crosby is 13/14 on the season, so the accuracy has been there this year. He’s averaging 2.5 FGs and about as many XPs per game at home this season, which would be a pretty safe floor. The indicators all look favorable for him this week.
Secondary Options:
Steven Hauschka ($4,900)
Opponent: Buffalo – Spread: -7 – Team Total: 25.5 – Prop>3: 9/2
Hauschka has been a pretty safe option this year, but has really only shown big upside once. He’s made at least two FG in six of seven games, but has only made three once. The safety is nice, but if I’m going to pay $4,900 I want more upside than he’s shown this year. I’ll probably use him on at least one lineup this week, but I’ll be rolling with the three Top Plays if I need the salary savings.
Blair Walsh ($4,600)
Opponent: Detroit – Spread -6.5 – Team Total: 24.25 – Prop>3: 9/2
Update – the Minn line in this game has gone up a point throughout the week and Walsh now has a prop of 9/2 Those are both favorable moves!
We’re now in the section where we have kickers who meet the criteria, but haven’t shown us much to instill confidence so far this year. Walsh is 11/14 on the season which is in the bottom half of the league in made FG and below average from an accuracy perspective. In fact, outside of a monster game Week 1, he’s only attempted more than one FG two times this season. I’m not going here this week.
Andrew Franks ($4,700)
Opponent: Jets – Spread: -3.5 – Team Total: 24 – Prop>3: n/a
Update – This game appears to be a bit breezy as well. I’m still planning to avoid Franks
The Jets are sitting right on our team total cutoff of 24 points. They are at risk of falling outside our criteria by the end of the week. Even if they didn’t, Franks hasn’t done much to make us want to use him. He’s amongst the worst in the league for both FG made and accuracy. The only somewhat redeeming about him is that his last two games are his best of the season. He had three FG and three XP two weeks ago and two FG and two XP last week. Both of these were home games. I’m going to take a wait and see approach with him this week and will not be using him in any lineups.
Others to Consider:
I’m not going to do a deep write-up on these guys but Matt Bryant ($4,900) and Dan Bailey ($4,800) look to be worth considering this week. They are favored, have high team totals, and have put up good numbers on the season. They don’t meet our criteria since they are on the road, but I am willing to overlook that from time to time when choosing my kicker.
Pre-Kick Update:
1) Walsh has seen a favorable team total line move and now has a 9/2 prop.
2) Franks will be dealing with some potential wind as well.