The Match 4 Golf Odds, Picks: Mickelson-Brady vs. DeChambeau-Rodgers

by Matt Schmitto (schmitto) Last Updated 2021-07-06 08:36:08

Phil Mickelson and Tom Brady are set to square off against Bryson DeChambeau and Aaron Rodgers at The Reserve at Moonlight Basin in Big Sky, Mont. Here’s a look at The Match 4 odds and betting picks before things tee off at 5 pm ET Tuesday, July 6 on TNT.

The Match 4: Mickelson-Brady vs. DeChambeau-Rodgers Odds

The Match returns, and so do Phil Mickelson and Tom Brady. They have a new pair of competitors in Bryson DeChambeau and Aaron Rodgers.

Despite Mickelson’s recent success and Brady’s Super Bowl, it’s DeChambeau and Rodgers who are the golf betting favorites at online sportsbooks.

That Match: Bryson/Rodgers vs. Phil/Brady

Neither Rodgers nor DeChambeau has been out of the spotlight in recent weeks. Rodgers has stayed far away from Lambeau Field, while DeChambeau has had continuous beef with fellow golfer Brooks Koepka. Then, last Thursday morning, just hours before his first-round Rocket Mortgage tee time, DeChambeau parted was with his caddy.

DeChambeau missed the cut one year after winning at Detroit Golf Club, but that hasn’t stopped the duo from making the duo heavy favorites to win the July exhibition match in Big Sky, Mont.

As of Monday afternoon, William Hill lists the pair -175 to win. Mickelson and Brady bettors are getting +138 odds, meaning a $100 wager will pay out $138 if they pull off the upset.

The Match 4 Format & Course

The foursome will compete in an 18-hole modified alternate shot competition at The Reserve at Moonlight Basin. In this format, all four golfers will tee off on every hole. From there, they’ll choose what tee shot to use and then alternate hitting the same ball until it’s holed out.

A little about the course: The Reserve at Moonlight Basin is a Jack Nicklaus-designed course that stretches 8,000 yards, and includes a 777-yard Par 5 on the 17th hole.

Phil vs. Bryson

A little more than a month ago, Phil defied the odds and won the PGA Championship at 50 years old, becoming the oldest major champion in golf history. He’s missed one of four cuts since then and finished T62nd at the U.S. Open. Most recently, he finished T74 in Detroit at the Rocket Mortgage Classic.

Bryson, too, has missed one-of-four cuts since the PGA Championship, but outperformed Phil at the U.S Open and Travelers Championship.

There’s no doubt DeChambeau is the better golfer, but, considering recent controversy with both Koepka and his own caddie (former), the 27-year-old’s head may not be in the right space.

Edge: DeChambeau

Brady vs. Rodgers

Brady bested Rodgers on the football fold not once but twice last season, including in Green Bay during the NFC Championship game.

However, based on the golf handicaps for the two future Hall-of-Fame quarterbacks, it’s Rodgers who has the better swing.

According to a 2019 interview with Golf Magazine, Rodgers plays to a 3.5 handicap when his game is in form. Brady, on the other hand, is closer to an 8 handicap. In fact, Brady has admitted that Rodgers has beaten him on the golf course.

We know Rodgers has had plenty of time to practice this offseason, while Brady has been busy with his receivers in Tampa.

Edge: Rodgers

Wait, home course advantage?

As our friends at USBets pointed out earlier Monday morning, underdogs Brady and Phil might have an advantage based on where The Match is being played.

“Brady and Mickelson both own offseason homes near The Reserve at Moonlight Basin, the Jack Nicklaus-designed course where The Match will be played. They golf a fair amount — sometimes together — at a private course on the grounds of The Yellowstone Club,” writes Mike Seely.

Does their familiarity with the course give them enough of an edge to make them the sharp bet at +138 odds?

Interestingly, Moonlight Basin does feature five par-5s, which presumably help DeChambeau & Rodgers.

That Match 4 Picks

I don’t love betting on heavy favorites in this type of “friendly” match, especially with so much unknown regarding Brady’s and Rodgers’ current golf form.

If you’re taking the plus-money odds, you’re likely thinking similarly. There’s also the fact that DeChambeau didn’t exactly have a controversy-free weekend.

On the other hand, if there’s not a clear edge — and I don’t believe there is — it’s probably best, and most fun, to bet with your heart. They say never to do it, but in this case, I insist.

So, where is my heart? With the greatest quarterback of all time…

The Match 4 Pick: Rodgers and DeChambeau -175

Image Credit: Imagn