The Sporer Report: 7/20 — 7/26
Welcome to The Sporer Report. It is designed to set up the week from a pitching perspective. Once the season gets rolling, Mondays become one of the regularly scheduled off days, so the slates will often be lighter and that allows us some time to plan for the remaining six days of the week, five of which will have full slates (Thursday is the other regular off-day).
Each week I will deep-dive the projected starters rundown identifying the best starts of the week, the potential value plays on the docket, and the starts where an otherwise strong asset may find some trouble. Additionally, I will rank my top 10 and bottom 10 bullpens. The importance here is two-fold: 1) you want to be careful betting on weak bullpens as it could cost you starter wins which is especially important if they are highly valued (like DraftDay where they are 10 points) and 2) if you’re stacking against some tomato can, you don’t really want him to be reinforced by a top bullpen because that could stunt your stack when the starter is lifted after two-plus innings and you didn’t get nearly the points you expected.
This is the outline for now as we start the season, but I’m certain I will be adding in-season as ideas pop up. In fact, if you have any pitching-related items you’d like to see included in the Weekly Report, please let me know in the comments or on Twitter. Also remember that anytime we are dealing with projected starters, the key is the projected part of it. They are subject to change, especially the ones later in the week.
Editor’s Note: This report is compiled early Monday morning. Scheduled pitching assignments are subject to change throughout the week.
TOP 35 STARTS (JUST THE BEST, REGARDLESS OF PRICE)
We’re just looking for the best potential payoff here. A lot of these guys will be the expensive arms atop the slate, but that investment will likely pay dividends. These are the guys you will be looking to in 50/50s and H2H matchups because there is just little chance of a total meltdown.
| TOP 35 STARTS | ||||
| RK | PITCHER | OPP | DAY | NOTE |
| 1 | Clayton Kershaw | at NYM | Thu | At least Kershaw didn’t have to fight his way into the All-Star Game: 2.68 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 34% K, 16% SwStr rate – what’s better than “elite”? |
| 2 | Zack Greinke | at NYM | Fri | K/9 does a disservice to Greinke because it hides his incredible efficency: 35th in K/9 (8.0), 22nd in K% (24%) |
| 3 | Chris Sale | at CLE | Sat | Looked like one of those humanoids v. KC last time out; CLE could pay the price (2.05 ERA in four starts v. them since start of 2014) |
| 4 | Jacob deGrom | at WAS | Tue | The ASG performance might’ve finally made everyone recognize just how excellent the 2014 Rookie of the Year is now |
| 5 | Corey Kluber | CWS | Fri | Perception seems to freak out any time one of these ace-level arms doesn’t have a sub-3.00 ERA; a 3.22 w/brilliant skills still rocks |
| 6 | David Price | SEA | Thu | About the only good DET pitcher right now, especially lately: 1.56 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 64 Ks, and 8.0 K:BB ratio in his last 8 starts (57.7 IP) |
| 7 | Jake Arrieta | PHI | Sat | Quietly on fire over the last month: his 0.96 ERA is third-best, but his 46.7 IP are tops; has fanned fewer than 5 once all year |
| 8 | Dallas Keuchel | at KC | Sat | I’ll keep beating the drum: doesn’t have an elite K rate, but its shortcomings are wildly overblown; has three 11+ K outings, avg’ing 7+ IP/start |
| 9 | Gerrit Cole | WAS | Sun | Has exactly one bad start all year (4.7 IP/5 ER v. CIN), but has followed it w/a 2.91 ERA in three most recent starts v. DET, CLE, and STL |
| 10 | Matt Harvey | at WAS | Mon | Has 9 BB in his last two starts; had 17 in previous 15 combined; likely just another TJ recovery hiccup, no one is immune |
| 11 | Gerrit Cole | at KC | Tue | KC offense lulled from May to mid-June after a huge April, but they’re back up as 8th-best v. RHP over the last month |
| 12 | Jacob deGrom | LAD | Sun | LAD has been the avoid-at-all-costs offense since April; they’re still good, but studs can be used against them if you want |
| 13 | Matt Harvey | LAD | Sat | Dodgers pulled five of those aforementioned nine walks in a July 4th start v. Harvey |
| 14 | Felix Hernandez | TOR | Fri | Everyone recalls the 0.3 IP/8 ER disaster at HOU, but he had a 4.7 IP/7 ER dud v. NYY two starts before that; 39% of his ER came in those 2 starts |
| 15 | Jose Fernandez | at ARI | Wed | It’s been the same electric Fernandez in three starts so far, but there will be a TJ hiccup somewhere; no one is immune |
| 16 | Carlos Martinez | ATL | Sat | Loses a two-start week after throwing 4 IP in the Mets marathon, but at least he gets the anemic Braves offense |
| 17 | Madison Bumgarner | OAK | Sat | OAK has been crushing lefties over the last two months as fourth-best offense; they were 29th prior to that point |
| 18 | Michael Wacha | at CWS | Tue | White Sox gets Wacha, Lynn, Kluber, Carrasco, and Salazar this week; they’re 28th in offense v. RHP |
| 19 | Jason Hammel | at CIN | Tue | Leaving his last start (Jul 8th) plus the All-Star break will essentially serve as a DL stint for Hammel’s hammy |
| 20 | Lance Lynn | at CWS | Wed | Lynn had a fantastic 2014, but skills weren’t quite sub-3.00 level; improved K & BB rates now have his ERA (2.79) and FIP (2.78) aligned |
| 21 | Francisco Liriano | WAS | Thu | The real key – and it’s not as big for us on the DFS landscape – is whether or not he can hold for 30+ starts, only has 1 such season (2010) |
| 22 | A.J. Burnett | WAS | Sat | He’s gone 5+ IP in all 18 starts this year and 6+ IP in 15 of them; Ks down some, but BBs also way down and GB% rate remains great |
| 23 | Noah Syndergaard | at WAS | Wed | Among arms w/70+ IP, Thor’s 2.69 FIP is 11th; imagine if the Blue Jays had just held onto him (OK that was unncessarily mean to TOR fans) |
| 24 | Gio Gonzalez | NYM | Mon | Had a 4.73 thru May, but posted a 2.78 ERA in six starts heading into the break; should be a 3.20-3.50 ERA level the rest of the way |
| 25 | Chris Archer | BAL | Sat | Baltimore is one of the few teams to actually have some success v. Archer (5.40 ERA) keeping w/a career trend (5.65 ERA) |
| 26 | Jake Odorizzi | at PHI | Wed | 8 BB in two starts since returning from the DL accounts for 35% of his season walks and had two of his shortest non-injury outings (10 IP total) |
| 27 | Jon Lester | PHI | Fri | Lester has been a frontliner in four July starts with IP counts of 7, 7, 7, and 7.3 IP with K totals of 7, 8, 8, and 7 |
| 28 | Sonny Gray | TOR | Wed | Ks have come back to earth: 53 in first 56 IP; 59 in his last 73.7 IP; 56% K rate w/slider in first sample has fallen to (still-great) 41% since |
| 29 | Garrett Richards | MIN | Thu | Starting to find his ’14 form? Inconsistency came to a head in NYY (0.7 IP/6 ER), but strong since: 2.17 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 3.5 K:BB |
| 30 | Masahiro Tanaka | BAL | Thu | HRs are the reason for his elevated ERA. Allowed 6 HRs in back-to-back starts v. DET & HOU yielding 11 ER; 2.49 ERA before, 3.05 ERA since |
| 31 | James Shields | SF | Wed | HRs were a major issue earlier this year: 2.2 HR/9 thru 10 starts; 0.8 HR/9 in his last 10 but results haven’t followed w/1.45 WHIP in those starts |
| 32 | Cole Hamels | at CHC | Sat | It’s easy to pin the recent struggles on the trade rumors swirling around him, but it may also just be the truth |
| 33 | Erasmo Ramirez | BAL | Fri | The tough part about Ramirez is that he just doesn’t go deep into games which limits the upside: 5.4 IP/start in his 12 starts |
| 34 | Danny Salazar | CWS | Sun | The inconsistency makes him a frustrating cash game play: 7, 4.7, 4.3, 7.7, 4.7, and 8.7 IP in his last 6 w/game scores from 30 to 79 |
| 35 | Carlos Carrasco | CWS | Sat | His 1.17 WHIP, 10.1 K/9, and 5.3 K:BB ratio point to a stud, but the 3.94 ERA points to inconsistency and some poor defensive support |
POTENTIAL VALUE STARTS (CHEAPER GUYS WORTH CONSIDERING)
These guys are very unlikely to be among the highest priced arms on the board, but obviously that juicy price point comes with risk. Just how much risk will vary depending on the slate, but there is almost always some value to be mined in the pitching pool. We swim in this pool understanding that they will bust at times and tank a lineup, but the potential upside is enough to incur that risk. These guys make great off-the-radar gambles for larger scale tournaments where you need some uniqueness to hit big.
| POTENTIAL VALUE STARTS | ||||
| RK | PITCHER | OPP | DAY | NOTE |
| 1 | Chris Heston | at SD | Tue | Very good since the no-no: 2.63 ERA, 1.22 WHIP; skills say probably more 3.63 than 2.63, though |
| 2 | Mat Latos | at SD | Sun | Has a solid 3.59 ERA when not facing ATL incl. a 3.31 ERA in his last five starts w/31 Ks in 32.7 IP |
| 3 | Julio Teheran | LAD | Wed | Still looks like the 2013-14 stud at home: 2.18 ERA, 0.99 WHIP |
| 4 | Brett Anderson | at ATL | Tue | Skill has never been the question with Anderson, it’s always been about health, but less concerning in DFS |
| 5 | Brett Anderson | at NYM | Sun | The 67% GB rates makes up for 18% K |
| 6 | Andrew Heaney | TEX | Sun | Remember, this is a top-flight prospect, his success isn’t that surprising… or at least it shouldn’t be |
| 7 | Nate Karns | at PHI | Tue | Like Ramirez, he doesn’t go deep into games, but offers a lot in the six or so innings he does finish |
| 8 | Marco Estrada | at SEA | Sat | We’ve seen this before, he’s basically the Good Estrada we saw in MIL from 2012-13 |
| 9 | Kyle Gibson | NYY | Sun | A different pitcher in his last 10: 2.76 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and 59 Ks in 65.3 IP |
| 10 | Robbie Ray | MIA | Wed | There are some warning signs w/3% HR/FB & 40% Hard rate, but still some real improvement from the young lefty |
| 11 | Wade Miley | at HOU | Wed | Painfully inconsistent, but enough good to be a decent gamble |
| 12 | Rubby de la Rosa | MIA | Mon | Lefties smash Rubby, but Bour, Yelich, and Gordon are their only worthwhile lefties |
| 13 | Nathan Eovaldi | BAL | Tue | Former mates obliterated him for 8 ER in 0.7 IP, but he’s got a 2.93 ERA in 27.7 IP since that start |
| 14 | Dan Haren | at SD | Fri | Has a clunker every once in a while like his last start, but still useful, espec. in venues like Petco |
| 15 | Taylor Jungmann | at ARI | Sat | Pitching above his head right now, but that doesn’t mean he’s terrible, lots of wiggle room w/a 2.04 ERA |
POTENTIAL LANDMINES (QUALITY ARMS WHO COULD STUMBLE)
Sometimes you think you’ve got a great option for the day. Maybe he’s an expensive guy who has the track record worth trusting or perhaps you’re speculating a bit further down the list and feel like the matchup merits a gamble. However, that stud might not be as sturdy as you think and maybe the team your gamble is facing can’t hit on the whole, but the one thing they do well is the exact weakness of your gamble play. Every week will have potential landmines, upper- and mid-tier arms in a presumed rosterable spot who might actually be in for an implosion. These are listed with the scariest at the top (so most potential to largely underperform against expectations).
| POTENTIAL LANDMINES | ||||
| RK | PITCHER | OPP | DAY | NOTE |
| 1 | Scott Kazmir | TOR | Thu | TOR v. lefties, duh |
| 2 | Johnny Cueto | at COL | Sat | Struggling and heading to Coors is a recipe for disaster |
| 3 | Eduardo Rodriguez | DET | Sat | DET v. lefties, duh |
| 4 | Danny Salazar | at MIL | Tue | MIL is baseball’s best offense v. RHP in the last month w/a .373 wOBA |
| 5 | Michael Pineda | at MIN | Fri | MIN isn’t far behind MIL in the last month at .351 |
| 6 | Hisashi Iwakuma | at DET | Thu | DET’s offense isn’t the problem, even w/out Miggy |
| 7 | Garrett Richards | MIN | Thu | While GR has been better of late, this MIN offense isn’t to be trifled with too often |
| 8 | Madison Bumgarner | OAK | Sat | OAK over the last two months: 4th v. LHP; they were 29th prior to that point |
| 9 | Chris Sale | CLE | Sat | CLE is 4th v. LHP for the year and still top 10 in last month |
THE BULLPENS RANKED 1-30
Bullpens are the most volatile part of the game year-to-year. Look at any breakout team and there’s a good chance their bullpen performance from the previous year has improved substantially. Obviously KC’s bullpen is a high profile example, but it’s hardly new. The small samples create a ton of variance, but I can’t overreact to every week of data from the bullpens so unless I see real reasons behind the performance – for better or worse –then I’m not going to drastically move a team around. There won’t be a comment for all 30 teams every single week.
| THE BULLPENS RANKED 1-30 | ||||
| RK | TEAM | LAST | KEY COMPONENTS | NOTE |
| 1 | NYY | 5 | Miller, Betances, Shreve | With Miller back, they re-take the top spot |
| 2 | HOU | 1 | Gregerson, Harris, Neshek | HOU pen had a 4.80 ERA last year, down to 2.72 (5th-best) this year and could add reinforcements |
| 3 | LAD | 2 | Jansen, Nicasio, Howell | Struggled to get all of their pieces healthy at once so they too could add to shore up the bridge to Jansen |
| 4 | KC | 3 | Holland, Davis, Madson | Madson, Morales, and Finnegan have given this pen incredible depth |
| 5 | PIT | 8 | Melancon, Watson, Hughes | Remember the concerns over Melancon? After his 3 ER outing in April: 0.25 ERA, 0.79 WHIP in 36.7 IP |
| 6 | BAL | 4 | Britton, O’Day, Brach | Britton-O’Day is right up there w/Miller-Betances in terms of left-right combos late in games |
| 7 | STL | 9 | Rosenthal, Siegrist, Maness | |
| 8 | MIA | 6 | Ramos, Capps, Cishek | Ramos & Capps lead the way… but don’t sleep on Cishek’s return: 0.93 ERA w/9 Ks in 9.7 IP |
| 9 | MIL | 7 | K-Rod, Smith, Blazek | |
| 10 | CLE | 12 | Allen, Shaw, McAllister | |
| 11 | TOR | 14 | Osuna, Delabar, Hendriks | Everyone has them getting Papelbon or Chapman, but the pen really isn’t their problem |
| 12 | CHC | 10 | Rondon, Strop, Motte | |
| 13 | CWS | 16 | Robertson, Duke, Petricka | |
| 14 | TB | 11 | Boxberger, McGee, Jepsen | Thins out after these top three and it’s the most-used pen w/314 IP |
| 19 | SD | 17 | Kimbrel, Maurer, Benoit | SD is disappointing all around, but the pen not domination has been the biggest upset |
| 15 | WAS | 13 | Storen, Treinen, Rivero | |
| 16 | NYM | 15 | Familia, C.Torres, A.Torres | Parnell & Mejia could be massive additions to this bullpen; Verrett showing some intrigue, too |
| 17 | PHI | 18 | Papelbon, Giles, De Fratus | |
| 18 | OAK | 19 | Clippard, Rodriguez, Pomeranz | They lack the depth of previous OAK pens; as such, trading Clippard would really sting |
| 20 | ARI | 20 | Ziegler, Delgado, Hudson | |
| 21 | SF | 21 | Casilla, Strickland, Kontos | Torch in the process of being passed to 26-year old Strickland? 1.99 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 32% K rate, and 0 HRs in 22.7 IP |
| 22 | SEA | 25 | Smith, Lowe, Furbush | Stop putting Rodney in any high or even medium leverage situations and you might win some games |
| 23 | LAA | 22 | Street, Smith, Salas | |
| 24 | COL | 27 | Hawkins, Betancourt, Friedrich | |
| 25 | TEX | 24 | Tolleson, Kela, Claudio | |
| 26 | ATL | 26 | J.Johnson, Vizcaino, Aardsma | Aardsma has been resurrected out of nowhere and Vizcaino could be a relief stud |
| 27 | CIN | 23 | Chapman, Hoover, Badenhop | |
| 28 | BOS | 28 | Uehara, Tazawa, Ogando | |
| 29 | MIN | 29 | Perkins, Fien, Pressly | |
| 30 | DET | 900 | Soria, Nesbitt, Wilson | It’s not good, y’all, not good. |