The Sporer Report: 8/24 — 8/30
Welcome to The Sporer Report. It is designed to set up the week from a pitching perspective. Once the season gets rolling, Mondays become one of the regularly scheduled off days, so the slates will often be lighter and that allows us some time to plan for the remaining six days of the week, five of which will have full slates (Thursday is the other regular off-day).
Each week I will deep-dive the projected starters rundown identifying the best starts of the week, the potential value plays on the docket, and the starts where an otherwise strong asset may find some trouble. Additionally, I will rank my top 10 and bottom 10 bullpens. The importance here is two-fold: 1) you want to be careful betting on weak bullpens as it could cost you starter wins which is especially important if they are highly valued (like DraftDay where they are 10 points) and 2) if you’re stacking against some tomato can, you don’t really want him to be reinforced by a top bullpen because that could stunt your stack when the starter is lifted after two-plus innings and you didn’t get nearly the points you expected.
This is the outline for now as we start the season, but I’m certain I will be adding in-season as ideas pop up. In fact, if you have any pitching-related items you’d like to see included in the Weekly Report, please let me know in the comments or on Twitter. Also remember that anytime we are dealing with projected starters, the key is the projected part of it. They are subject to change, especially the ones later in the week.
Editor’s Note: This report is compiled early Monday morning. Scheduled pitching assignments are subject to change throughout the week.
TOP 35 STARTS (JUST THE BEST, REGARDLESS OF PRICE)
We’re just looking for the best potential payoff here. A lot of these guys will be the expensive arms atop the slate, but that investment will likely pay dividends. These are the guys you will be looking to in 50/50s and H2H matchups because there is just little chance of a total meltdown.
| TOP 35 STARTS | ||||
| RK | PITCHER | OPP | DAY | NOTE |
| 1 | Jacob deGrom | at PHI | Mon | Has allowed 7 ER in his L7 starts combined; has finished fewer than 6 IP just 4x in 23 starts (once since 5/11) |
| 2 | “(player-popup)Clayton Kershaw”:/players/clayton-kershaw-10905 | CHC | Fri | Has allowed 8 ER in his L10 starts combined, 4 of which came in one start; has 91 Ks in 77 IP over those 10 starts |
| 3 | “(player-popup)Stephen Strasburg”:/players/stephen-strasburg-11494 | MIA | Sun | Three straight excellent outings since returning from the DL: 1.35 ERA, 0.70 WHIP, and 25 Ks in 20 IP |
| 4 | “(player-popup)Stephen Strasburg”:/players/stephen-strasburg-11494 | SD | Tue | SD offense not quite as anemic as last year’s iteration, but still not hard; great 2-start setup for Stras |
| 5 | “(player-popup)Zack Greinke”:/players/zack-greinke-11175 | at CIN | Thu | Since PHI got him for 5 ER: 1.80 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 19 Ks, and 2 BBs in 20 IP |
| 6 | “(player-popup)Chris Sale”:/players/chris-sale-10976 | BOS | Wed | Remember the B2B 7 ER outings? Me neither. Since: 2.11 ERA, 0.70 WHIP, & 36 Ks in 21.3 IP |
| 7 | Jacob deGrom | BOS | Sat | BOS offense is surging sitting 5th in wOBA v. RH this month, but they weren’t facing deGrom |
| 8 | “(player-popup)Gerrit Cole”:/players/gerrit-cole-15859 | at MIA | Thu | Was having a modest Aug (4.70 ERA in 4 starts) before 7 IP of one-run ball (unearned, too) v. best O in lg v. RHP |
| 9 | “(player-popup)Max Scherzer”:/players/max-scherzer-10934 | SD | Wed | Pedestrian over his L6 w/3 QS and 3 duds, 8 HRs in the three duds; SD’s 90 HRs v. RHP are 13th-most in MLB |
| 10 | “(player-popup)Noah Syndergaard”:/players/noah-syndergaard-17627 | BOS | Sun | Thor shines at home: 1.82 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 65 Ks, and 8.1 K:BB ratio in 64.3 IP |
| 11 | “(player-popup)David Price”:/players/david-price-10965 | at TEX | Wed | The 11 H v. NYY is the only thing close to a bad start as a Jay for Price (1.78 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 33 Ks in 30.3 IP w/TOR) |
| 12 | “(player-popup)Matt Harvey”:/players/matt-harvey-13517 | BOS | Fri | NYM used a trip to Coors as the time to give him a rest which us season-long fantasy players love |
| 13 | “(player-popup)Madison Bumgarner”:/players/madison-bumgarner-10932 | CHC | Thu | He’s on fire and doing his part (2.40 ERA in L8) and the team is rewarding him as well w/7 Ws in those starts |
| 14 | “(player-popup)Dallas Keuchel”:/players/dallas-keuchel-13490 | at NYY | Tue | Going to NYY is usually a concern bc of the potential HR damage, but Keuchel’s 63% GB rate & 0.45 HR/9 mitigate that worry |
| 15 | “(player-popup)Michael Wacha”:/players/michael-wacha-15848 | at SF | Fri | Had 5+ Ks in 14 straight starts before Sunday’s 3 at SD, but still went 6 IP/1 ER and notched his 15th W |
| 16 | “(player-popup)Chris Archer”:/players/chris-archer-17449 | MIN | Wed | MIN has some solid individual pieces, but as a unit they’re just 25th v. RHP this month and 29th since the break |
| 17 | “(player-popup)Jake Arrieta”:/players/jake-arrieta-10982 | at LAD | Sun | Has 12 straight QS w/a 1.26 ERA and 81 Ks in 86 IP, but it’ll be a challenge against the two best offenses v. RHP |
| 18 | “(player-popup)Jake Arrieta”:/players/jake-arrieta-10982 | at SF | Tue | Though Arrieta does his best work against better teams: 1.73 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, and 5.2 K:BB ratio in 98.7 IP v. teams w/.500+ rec |
| 19 | “(player-popup)Carlos Carrasco”:/players/carlos-carrasco-10678 | MIL | Wed | Now has 5 straight w/out a dud after failing to string more than 3 together in his first 20 starts (1.36 ERA in 39.7 IP during run) |
| 20 | “(player-popup)Sonny Gray”:/players/sonny-gray-14979 | at ARI | Fri | Allowed 5 HRs in first 18 starts; has allowed 8 in L7; ARI offense sits 9th v. RHP since break in wRC+ & 4th in R/G |
| 21 | “(player-popup)Johnny Cueto”:/players/johnny-cueto-11193 | BAL | Wed | Even w/the dud at BOS, he still has a 3.00 ERA and 1.14 WHIP w/KC; Ks are missing: from 8.3 to 6.0 K/9 |
| 22 | “(player-popup)Noah Syndergaard”:/players/noah-syndergaard-17627 | at PHI | Tue | Has had a sharp home/road split, though 4 of his last 5 away from Citi have been solid as team realizes it’s routine-related |
| 23 | “(player-popup)Danny Salazar”:/players/danny-salazar-15290 | LAA | Fri | Should’ve stuck w/my instincts that NYY wasn’t the place for him (4.7 IP/4 ER, 2 HR) |
| 24 | “(player-popup)Corey Kluber”:/players/corey-kluber-11495 | LAA | Sun | The lack of consistency has knocked him down a rung or two in DFS |
| 25 | “(player-popup)Jon Lester”:/players/jon-lester-10969 | at LAD | Sat | Thought recent run could trump history v. DET, it could not… now has 6.05 ERA, 1.80 WHIP in 61 IP v. DET |
| 26 | “(player-popup)Cole Hamels”:/players/cole-hamels-10996 | BAL | Fri | Appears to finally be healthy and starting to settle in with his new team; could be a big stretch run upcoming |
| 27 | “(player-popup)Julio Teheran”:/players/julio-teheran-11191 | COL | Mon | He’s still been the 2013-14 version of himself at home: 2.44 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and 8.1 K/9 |
| 28 | “(player-popup)Julio Teheran”:/players/julio-teheran-11191 | NYY | Sun | Bronx Bombers are middle of the pack against righties on the road |
| 29 | “(player-popup)Masahiro Tanaka”:/players/masahiro-tanaka-17451 | at ATL | Fri | Power teams are the big concern w/Tanaka and even those can be tamed (9 IP/1 ER at TOR on 8/15); Braves are punchless |
| 30 | “(player-popup)Lance Lynn”:/players/lance-lynn-11292 | at ARI | Mon | Avoided too much trouble despite 5 BB v. SF; strong rebound after PIT obliterated him |
| 31 | “(player-popup)Lance McCullers”:/players/lance-mccullers-18862 | at MIN | Sun | The break in the minors served him well after that TEX massacre: 7 IP/2 ER and 8 Ks against high-power LAD offense |
| 32 | “(player-popup)Carlos Martinez”:/players/carlos-martinez-14636 | at ARI | Thu | Stuff look sharp at SD and he last 6.3 IP; had gone 5 IP in three of previous four starts |
| 33 | “(player-popup)Scott Kazmir”:/players/scott-kazmir-10942 | at MIN | Sat | ERA is just 0.03 different w/HOU even w/a 6 ER dud v. TB on his ledger in the six starts |
| 34 | “(player-popup)Francisco Liriano”:/players/francisco-liriano-10663 | COL | Fri | He hasn’t been his dominant-self in Aug, but COL is baseball’s worst team v. LHP on the road |
| 35 | “(player-popup)Joe Ross”:/players/joseph-ross-17549 | MIA | Fri | Rebounded from the super-difficult at LAD/at SF pair of starts w/a 7 IP/1 ER gem v. MIL |
POTENTIAL VALUE STARTS (CHEAPER GUYS WORTH CONSIDERING)
These guys are very unlikely to be among the highest priced arms on the board, but obviously that juicy price point comes with risk. Just how much risk will vary depending on the slate, but there is almost always some value to be mined in the pitching pool. We swim in this pool understanding that they will bust at times and tank a lineup, but the potential upside is enough to incur that risk. These guys make great off-the-radar gambles for larger scale tournaments where you need some uniqueness to hit big.
| POTENTIAL VALUE STARTS | ||||
| RK | PITCHER | OPP | DAY | NOTE |
| 1 | “(player-popup)Joe Ross”:/players/joseph-ross-17549 | MIA | Fri | Few teams more enticing to start against than MIA |
| 2 | “(player-popup)Raisel Iglesias”:/players/raisel-iglesias-18863 | at MIL | Fri | Breakout 13 Ks effort shines light on his incredible August: 1.93 ERA, 0.73 WHIP, and 35 Ks in 32.7 IP |
| 3 | “(player-popup)Luis Severino”:/players/luis-severino-21546 | at ATL | Sat | Has only gone 5 or 6 IP in each start, but has allowed just 17 H and has 24 Ks in 23 IP |
| 4 | “(player-popup)Kyle Gibson”:/players/kyle-gibson-15867 | HOU | Fri | Just a different pitcher at home: 3.12 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and 6.9 K/9; 4.90-1.41-5.7 on road |
| 5 | “(player-popup)Patrick Corbin”:/players/patrick-corbin-13434 | OAK | Sun | TJ return means there will be hiccups, but 7 of his 20 ER have come in two bad starts; 4 QS in his L6 |
| 6 | “(player-popup)Nathan Eovaldi”:/players/nathan-eovaldi-11440 | at ATL | Sun | Better at home than away, but venue hasn’t mattered in 2H (3.55 ERA compared to 4.50 in 1H) |
| 7 | “(player-popup)Eduardo Rodriguez”:/players/eduardo-rodriguez-16174 | at NYM | Sat | Has allowed 30 of his 45 ER in four of 16 starts; has a 1.75 ERA in the other 12 |
| 8 | “(player-popup)Derek Holland”:/players/derek-holland-11037 | BAL | Sun | Looked great in return from DL; don’t forget he looked like a ’14 breakout before injuries struck |
| 9 | “(player-popup)Carlos Rodon”:/players/carlos-rodon-18858 | SEA | Thu | There’s an obvious and inherent risk w/someone walking 5 per game, but the upside is substantial |
| 10 | “(player-popup)Andrew Cashner”:/players/andrew-cashner-11015 | at WAS | Thu | Only bad start in August was in Coors; still doesn’t look his best, but actually usable again |
| 11 | “(player-popup)Jimmy Nelson”:/players/jimmy-nelson-16061 | at CLE | Wed | Has a 1.87 ERA in his L8 starts w/49 Ks in 53 IP |
| 12 | “(player-popup)Nate Karns”:/players/nate-karns-15844 | MIN | Tue | IP totals are capped around 6 unless he’s really rolling, but the Ks make up for it |
| 13 | “(player-popup)Chris Bassitt”:/players/chris-bassitt-17633 | at SEA | Wed | Since the break: 2.18 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, and 36 Ks in 41.4 IP |
| 14 | “(player-popup)Charlie Morton”:/players/charlie-morton-10985 | at MIA | Tue | Opposition isn’t the only thing behind this reco, Morton has a 3.62 ERA and 39 Ks in 37.3 IP during 2H |
| 15 | “(player-popup)J.A. Happ”:/players/j-a-happ-10941 | at MIA | Mon | The latest Searage Reclamation? 2.87 ERA in 15.7 IP w/16 Ks so far |
POTENTIAL LANDMINES (QUALITY ARMS WHO COULD STUMBLE)
Sometimes you think you’ve got a great option for the day. Maybe he’s an expensive guy who has the track record worth trusting or perhaps you’re speculating a bit further down the list and feel like the matchup merits a gamble. However, that stud might not be as sturdy as you think and maybe the team your gamble is facing can’t hit on the whole, but the one thing they do well is the exact weakness of your gamble play. Every week will have potential landmines, upper- and mid-tier arms in a presumed rosterable spot who might actually be in for an implosion.
I changed this up a little bit to listing the offenses that are scary first and then naming the pitchers who could be in trouble against them. I didn’t list all pitchers facing them, but just those who you’d actually consider using at any point, whether it’s a
stud or more of a value play. Let me know what you think of this change.
| POTENTIAL LANDMINES | ||
| RK | TEAM | PITCHERS IN DANGER |
| 1 | SF V. RHP | Arrieta, Wacha, Lynn |
| 2 | LAD V. ALL | Arrieta, Lester, Hammel |
| 3 | TOR V. ALL | Holland, Gallardo |
| 4 | DET V. ALL | Santiago, Hutchison |
| 5 | NYY AT HOME V. ALL | Keuchel, McHugh |
| 6 | ARI V. RHP | Lynn, Lackey, Martinez, Gray |
| 7 | KC V. RHP | Tillman, Ramirez, Odorizzi, Karns |
| 8 | BOS AT HOME V. RHP | none; on the road all week |
| 9 | BAL AT HOME | none; on the road all week |
| 10 | COL AT HOME | none; on the road all week |
THE BULLPENS RANKED 1-30
Bullpens are the most volatile part of the game year-to-year. Look at any breakout team and there’s a good chance their bullpen performance from the previous year has improved substantially. Obviously KC’s bullpen is a high profile example, but it’s hardly new. The small samples create a ton of variance, but I can’t overreact to every week of data from the bullpens so unless I see real reasons behind the performance – for better or worse –then I’m not going to drastically move a team around. There won’t be a comment for all 30 teams every single week.
Working on something with another RG’er regarding bullpens, so I’m tabling the Bullpen Ranks for this week.