The Sporer Report: 8/3 — 8/9
Welcome to The Sporer Report. It is designed to set up the week from a pitching perspective. Once the season gets rolling, Mondays become one of the regularly scheduled off days, so the slates will often be lighter and that allows us some time to plan for the remaining six days of the week, five of which will have full slates (Thursday is the other regular off-day).
Each week I will deep-dive the projected starters rundown identifying the best starts of the week, the potential value plays on the docket, and the starts where an otherwise strong asset may find some trouble. Additionally, I will rank my top 10 and bottom 10 bullpens. The importance here is two-fold: 1) you want to be careful betting on weak bullpens as it could cost you starter wins which is especially important if they are highly valued (like DraftDay where they are 10 points) and 2) if you’re stacking against some tomato can, you don’t really want him to be reinforced by a top bullpen because that could stunt your stack when the starter is lifted after two-plus innings and you didn’t get nearly the points you expected.
This is the outline for now as we start the season, but I’m certain I will be adding in-season as ideas pop up. In fact, if you have any pitching-related items you’d like to see included in the Weekly Report, please let me know in the comments or on Twitter. Also remember that anytime we are dealing with projected starters, the key is the projected part of it. They are subject to change, especially the ones later in the week.
Editor’s Note: This report is compiled early Monday morning. Scheduled pitching assignments are subject to change throughout the week.
TOP 35 STARTS (JUST THE BEST, REGARDLESS OF PRICE)
We’re just looking for the best potential payoff here. A lot of these guys will be the expensive arms atop the slate, but that investment will likely pay dividends. These are the guys you will be looking to in 50/50s and H2H matchups because there is just little chance of a total meltdown.
| TOP 35 STARTS | ||||
| RK | PITCHER | OPP | DAY | NOTE |
| 1 | Clayton Kershaw | at PIT | Fri | He was pushed back twice last week, but then assuaged all fears by dropping eight innings of 2-hit, shutout ball; now 36 scoreless in a row |
| 2 | Zack Greinke | at PHI | Thu | He 1-hit the Phillies for eight innings the last time he faced them (Jul 9); he’s gone fewer than 7 IP once in his last nine |
| 3 | Max Scherzer | ARI | Tue | Even w/two 5 ER outings, he still had a 3.40 ERA in July along with 42 Ks and just 5 BBs in 39.7 IP |
| 4 | Jake Arrieta | SF | Sun | He’s essentially been a carbon copy of last year’s breakout: 27% K, 7% BB, 2.53 ERA, 0.99 WHIP in ’14; 27%, 6%, 2.62, 1.02 this year |
| 5 | Jake Arrieta | at PIT | Tue | PIT somehow avoided Arrieta in ’14, haven’t been so luck this year: 1.29 ERA, 0.71 WHIP w/14 Ks in 14 IP |
| 6 | Jacob deGrom | at TB | Fri | Hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER in any of his last 13 starts: 1.47 ERA, 0.70 WHIP, 98 Ks in 91.7 IP |
| 7 | Chris Sale | TB | Tue | When someone is pitching SO well, we overreact to a couple human starts, but I don’t see any red flags for Sale |
| 8 | Max Scherzer | COL | Sun | COL hasn’t been their usual meltdown-on-the-road selves sitting 8th v. RHP, still not afraid of using Max, just not automatic |
| 9 | Noah Syndergaard | at TB | Sat | Has enjoyed a coming out party since the back-to-back 10 H games: 1.80 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 66 Ks in 60 IP |
| 10 | Jose Fernandez | at ATL | Fri | Just continues to dominate; I don’t doubt that he will be more dominant than not, but I still worry about TJ effects down the stretch |
| 11 | Corey Kluber | at LAA | Mon | You never want to make sweeping judgments based on W-L records, but at some pt the 6-11 stings in DFS where Ws are so important |
| 12 | Corey Kluber | MIN | Sat | It’s even more frustating when he pitches well and gets a ND as he did in an 8 IP/2 ER gem at MIN earlier this year |
| 13 | Gerrit Cole | LAD | Fri | LAD just 25th in wOBA v. RHP over the last month w/a 22% K rate (8th) |
| 14 | Dallas Keuchel | at OAK | Thu | A good way to maintain a sub-3.00 ERA is not string ugly starts together; he’s rebounded w/a gem after both of his 5 ER duds |
| 15 | Cole Hamels | at SEA | Fri | Wasn’t great in his TEX debut, but can discount some of that to nerves of joining a new club |
| 16 | Sonny Gray | HOU | Fri | Why I put “potential” in the landmines section: Gray was listed at LAD and all he did was drop a three-hit shutout |
| 17 | Matt Harvey | at MIA | Wed | Fanned fewer than 5 just twice in 26 starts back in ’13; has done so in 8 of 20 this year, likely a product of the TJ |
| 18 | David Price | MIN | Mon | He may have left the divison, but he’s ready to terrorize MIN once more: 1.87 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 54 Ks in 53 IP in 7 starts as a Tiger |
| 19 | Madison Bumgarner | at ATL | Wed | Taken as a whole, July wasn’t good (4.85 ERA), but it was two 6 ER outings bookending a 2.04 ERA in the three middle starts |
| 20 | Chris Archer | at CWS | Tue | Has 50 Ks in his last 38.7 IP along with a 5.6 K:BB ratio and 1.09 WHIP, but just a 3.96 ERA and 0-4 record; stay the course |
| 21 | Jon Lester | at PIT | Mon | Brilliant July turned in by Lester: 1.66 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, 50 Ks, 10.0 K:BB, and 7+ IP in all starts (43.3 IP) |
| 22 | Carlos Martinez | at CIN | Wed | COL popped him for 10 H and 5 ER, but as I mentioned they aren’t the same walkovers on the road this year; no worries about C-Mart |
| 23 | Carlos Carrasco | at LAA | Tue | Carrasco’s July couldn’t be a better microcosm of why I keep recommending him and why he’s so annoying: 1, 5, 2, 1, 6, 1 ER (3.72 ERA, 29% K) |
| 24 | Jon Lester | SF | Sat | Catching SF at the right time as they sit 25th v. LHP over the last month, they were 13th through June |
| 25 | Scott Kazmir | at TEX | Wed | Allowed 1 ER in July and has a 1.80 ERA in his last 85 IP (14 starts); he’s not much different than his new team’s ace, Dallas Keuchel |
| 26 | Francisco Liriano | CHC | Mon | He’ll be glad to never see his former team again: 10.57 ERA, 2.22 WHIP in two starts v. MIN this year (only 7.7 IP) |
| 27 | Lance Lynn | at MIL | Fri | MIL was on fire for a while, but they’ve been the 25th ranked tm v. RHP over the last two wks and now Gomez & Parra are gone |
| 28 | Michael Wacha | at CIN | Thu | Has three 5 ER outings in his last six, but it’s a lot of one-bad-inning syndrome as opposed to any sort of outright struggles |
| 29 | Lance McCullers Jr. | at OAK | Sat | The only real DFS concern w/him is that they don’t always let him get deep into games, avg’ing just under 6 IP/start |
| 30 | Johnny Cueto | at DET | Wed | With a trip to Detroit on the docket, his last three starts are at COL, at TOR, and DET; so far just 3 ER in 14 IP |
| 31 | Felix Hernandez | TEX | Sun | ARI is actually kinda solid so it’s not like he was beaten by some scrub club, but lower K% makes >$10K price tag tough to justify |
| 32 | Shelby Miller | MIA | Sun | MIA has become the punching bag team in the NL… although Miller’s Braves aren’t much better so we might just get a quality ND |
| 33 | Tyson Ross | PHI | Sat | I realize PHI is hitting well of late, I just don’t buy it as a long-term thing one bit |
| 34 | Lance McCullers Jr. | at TEX | Mon | We know TEX ballpark has made changes to be less of a launching pad, but the offense itself can supply the fireworks |
| 35 | Danny Salazar | at LAA | Wed | Has three HR-free games within his last six and unsurprisingly has a 2.38 ERA to show for it |
POTENTIAL VALUE STARTS (CHEAPER GUYS WORTH CONSIDERING)
These guys are very unlikely to be among the highest priced arms on the board, but obviously that juicy price point comes with risk. Just how much risk will vary depending on the slate, but there is almost always some value to be mined in the pitching pool. We swim in this pool understanding that they will bust at times and tank a lineup, but the potential upside is enough to incur that risk. These guys make great off-the-radar gambles for larger scale tournaments where you need some uniqueness to hit big.
| POTENTIAL VALUE STARTS | ||||
| RK | PITCHER | OPP | DAY | NOTE |
| 1 | Patrick Corbin | at WAS | Tue | I think some forget just how good he was in 2013: 3.41 ERA, 1.17 WHIP in 208.3 IP |
| 2 | Jake Odorizzi | NYM | Fri | I know the Mets are on one right now and I won’t blindly pick against them anymore, but still like Odorizzi here |
| 3 | Patrick Corbin | CIN | Sun | He had great command and control prior to TJ, too, so regaining his form hasn’t been as tough |
| 4 | Julio Teheran | MIA | Fri | He’s been nails at home (2.37 ERA) and might be figuring it out on the road w/2 gems in his last 3 |
| 5 | Andrew Heaney | BAL | Fri | You’re never happy for any injuries (unless you’re gross), but Wilson’s inj. ensures Heaney in the rotation now |
| 6 | Hisashi Iwakuma | TEX | Sat | Has been excellent in four of five and almost Maddux’d the Twins before a hanger to Dozier (8.7 IP/1 ER, 8 Ks in 91 pit.) |
| 7 | Erasmo Ramirez | at CWS | Wed | /Has a 1.89 ERA in his last 62 IP with the only real blemish being that mistake to Chris Davis (grand slam on 7/25) |
| 8 | Jose Quintana | TB | Mon | Composite ERA says mostly the same guy, but he has a 2.94 ERA since May 1st after a 6.55 ERA in April |
| 9 | Joe Ross | ARI | Thu | Might be his last start with the impending return of Strasburg so use this future stud while you can |
| 10 | Jason Hammel | SF | Thu | Seemed to have his base under him at MIL so hopefully the hammy is behind him |
| 11 | Jaime Garcia | at MIL | Sat | As I’ve said before, talent isn’t the question so he’s usually worth using when healthy |
| 12 | Aaron Nola | at SD | Fri | SD is 27th at home v. RHP this year, but their 3% HR rate is 10th so Nola (1.9 HR/9) needs to be careful |
| 13 | Mike Leake | at CHC | Fri | New team but familiar foe: 3.67 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, 20 Ks, 10.0 K:BB in four starts (27 IP) v. Cubs this year |
| 14 | Nate Karns | at CWS | Mon | Actually a couple ticks better on the road with a 3.13 ERA away from TB… |
| 15 | Nate Karns | NYM | Sat | …though his 3.52 at home isn’t exactly bad, so I’d be fine using both or either start; best used as SP2 |
POTENTIAL LANDMINES (QUALITY ARMS WHO COULD STUMBLE)
Sometimes you think you’ve got a great option for the day. Maybe he’s an expensive guy who has the track record worth trusting or perhaps you’re speculating a bit further down the list and feel like the matchup merits a gamble. However, that stud might not be as sturdy as you think and maybe the team your gamble is facing can’t hit on the whole, but the one thing they do well is the exact weakness of your gamble play. Every week will have potential landmines, upper- and mid-tier arms in a presumed rosterable spot who might actually be in for an implosion. These are listed with the scariest at the top (so most potential to largely underperform against expectations).
| POTENTIAL LANDMINES | ||||
| RK | PITCHER | OPP | DAY | NOTE |
| 1 | Taijuan Walker | at COL | Wed | Standard Coors warnings here with the two Mariners arms |
| 2 | Jordan Zimmermann | COL | Fri | It’s not in Coors, but as I mentioned earlier, COL is playing much better on the road these days |
| 3 | Masahiro Tanaka | TOR | Sun | A HR-prone SP against this lineup is a terrifying notion |
| 4 | Felix Hernandez | at COL | Mon | Standard Coors warnings here with the two Mariners arms |
| 5 | Danny Salazar | at LAA | Wed | Only 3 guys in the lineup have >10 HRs, but 2 of them have 30+ |
| 6 | David Price | at NYY | Sat | Yanks are just MASHING teams right now so I’m looking elsewhere on Saturday |
THE BULLPENS RANKED 1-30
Bullpens are the most volatile part of the game year-to-year. Look at any breakout team and there’s a good chance their bullpen performance from the previous year has improved substantially. Obviously KC’s bullpen is a high profile example, but it’s hardly new. The small samples create a ton of variance, but I can’t overreact to every week of data from the bullpens so unless I see real reasons behind the performance – for better or worse –then I’m not going to drastically move a team around. There won’t be a comment for all 30 teams every single week.
With the bullpen jumbling from the trade deadline, I need to revamp top to bottom, so I’m going to do that as a separate piece later this week. Stay tuned.