The Sporer Report: 9/9 — 9/13
Welcome to The Sporer Report. It is designed to set up the week from a pitching perspective. Once the season gets rolling, Mondays become one of the regularly scheduled off days, so the slates will often be lighter and that allows us some time to plan for the remaining six days of the week, five of which will have full slates (Thursday is the other regular off-day).
Each week I will deep-dive the projected starters rundown identifying the best starts of the week, the potential value plays on the docket, and the starts where an otherwise strong asset may find some trouble. Additionally, I will rank my top 10 and bottom 10 bullpens. The importance here is two-fold: 1) you want to be careful betting on weak bullpens as it could cost you starter wins which is especially important if they are highly valued (like DraftDay where they are 10 points) and 2) if you’re stacking against some tomato can, you don’t really want him to be reinforced by a top bullpen because that could stunt your stack when the starter is lifted after two-plus innings and you didn’t get nearly the points you expected.
This is the outline for now as we start the season, but I’m certain I will be adding in-season as ideas pop up. In fact, if you have any pitching-related items you’d like to see included in the Weekly Report, please let me know in the comments or on Twitter. Also remember that anytime we are dealing with projected starters, the key is the projected part of it. They are subject to change, especially the ones later in the week.
Editor’s Note: This report was compiled early Wednesday morning. Scheduled pitching assignments are subject to change throughout the week.
TOP 35 STARTS (JUST THE BEST, REGARDLESS OF PRICE)
We’re just looking for the best potential payoff here. A lot of these guys will be the expensive arms atop the slate, but that investment will likely pay dividends. These are the guys you will be looking to in 50/50s and H2H matchups because there is just little chance of a total meltdown.
TOP 25 STARTS | ||||
| RK | PITCHER | OPP | DAY | NOTE |
| 1 | Zack Greinke | at ARI | Sun | Labor Day basically qualifies as a “bad” start for Greinke these days: 6 IP/3 ER w/5 Ks and 0 BBs at LAA |
| 2 | Jake Arrieta | at PHI | Thu | Ws are tough to predict, but so key in DFS: Arrieta has an MLB-high 18 incl. seven straight (avg’ing ~7 IP/start really helps) |
| 3 | Madison Bumgarner | SD | Sat | Had three straight sub-6 IP outings to open July, since: over 7 IP per start, 2.64 ERA, and 79 Ks in 64.7 IP (9 starts) |
| 4 | Jacob deGrom | at WAS | Wed | Even w/a 2.7 IP/6 ER dud sandwiched in the middle, JdG still has a useful 3.68 ERA and 33 Ks in his last 29.3 IP |
| 5 | Dallas Keuchel | at LAA | Fri | His 29% K rate since the break is 9th-best among qualified SPs; he’s at 27% (10th) dating back to May 30th |
| 6 | David Price | at NYY | Thu | Remember when he had a 17% K rate in his 7 starts (3 of which saw him notch 3 or fewer)? He’s at 27% since (8th in MLB) |
| 7 | Chris Archer | BOS | Fri | Looking at his 12-11 rec vs. a 2.88 ERA might feel like hard-luck, but only 2 Ls were quality starts |
| 8 | Max Scherzer | at MIA | Sun | Six multi-HR games over his L11 starts leave him with a 4.73 ERA, one of the four HR-free games came at MIA |
| 9 | Michael Wacha | at CIN | Sun | Doesn’t have many signature outings where he drops 30+ at DK, but he’s almost never terrible, either |
| 10 | Noah Syndergaard | at ATL | Thu | He’s been worse on the road, but sometimes the opposition makes ignoring the split too enticing |
| 11 | Justin Verlander | at CLE | Fri | His FPPG at DK was 6 in the 1H (five starts); he’s up at 18.9 in the 2H (10 starts) even w/the -7.4 v. BAL |
| 12 | Derek Holland | at SEA | Thu | There are some smoke-n-mirrors indicators that are really more SSS than indication he’s been overly “lucky”, he’s dealing |
| 13 | Jose Fernandez | WAS | Sat | Fern & Stras are tied w/a 31% K rate in the 2H, good for third in MLB (min. 30 IP) |
| 14 | Stephen Strasburg | NYM | Wed | Who wants to get back on the StrasCoaster? I call front! |
| 15 | Cole Hamels | OAK | Sun | He’s settled in now w/TEX and even when it was a little wobbly, he was still going 6+ IP |
| 16 | Lance McCullers | at LAA | Sat | We’ve seen some youngsters hit the wall a bit in early-Sept., Mc has looked fresh since his three-week layoff |
| 17 | Jaime Garcia | at CIN | Thu | Had some BB issues upon returning from DL w/10 in first 3 starts incl. back-to-back 4s; has 4 BB in L5 starts (2.12 ERA) |
| 18 | Tyson Ross | COL | Thu | Has only logged fewer than 9 FD or 10 DK points three times in 29 starts; very stable, while still holding big time upside |
| 19 | Steven Matz | at ATL | Sat | A blister after 62 days off is pretty understandable, but he picked up where he left off otherwise; great matchup, too |
| 20 | Felix Hernandez | TEX | Thu | Prescription for a struggling Felix was a double dose of OAK: 2.81 ERA, 0.63 WHIP, and 16 Ks in 16 IP |
| 21 | Lance Lynn | at CIN | Sat | Gets blasted too often to be a true ace (5 negative DK scores), but avg’ing 20 FPPG in his other 21 starts |
| 22 | Francisco Liriano | MIL | Sun | A wobbly second half fueled by too many BBs (23 in 44 IP), but he’s still missing bats and can go off any night |
| 23 | Jake Odorizzi | at DET | Wed | He’s been more good than bad since returning from the DL despite the 4.43 ERA; his 24% K rate matches what he did in ’14 |
| 24 | Hisashi Iwakuma | COL | Fri | Don’t get hung up on the 4.03 ERA, he’s at 3.50 in 12 starts since returning from the DL (21% K, 1.01 WHIP) |
| 25 | Danny Salazar | DET | Thu | There’s some volatility (4 starts of more ER than IP), but the upside is near-elite (22 FPPG at DK in other 21 starts) |
POTENTIAL VALUE STARTS (CHEAPER GUYS WORTH CONSIDERING)
These guys are very unlikely to be among the highest priced arms on the board, but obviously that juicy price point comes with risk. Just how much risk will vary depending on the slate, but there is almost always some value to be mined in the pitching pool. We swim in this pool understanding that they will bust at times and tank a lineup, but the potential upside is enough to incur that risk. These guys make great off-the-radar gambles for larger scale tournaments where you need some uniqueness to hit big.
POTENTIAL VALUE STARTS | ||||
| RK | PITCHER | OPP | DAY | NOTE |
| 1 | Jimmy Nelson | at PIT | Fri | Even w/2 duds in his last 3, Nelson has a 3.23 ERA over his last 92 IP (15 starts) |
| 2 | Collin McHugh | at OAK | Wed | It’s been a tale of two halves w/the split coming mid-June: 2.60 ERA in L14 starts; 5.08 in F13 |
| 3 | Patrick Corbin | LAD | Sun | This half-season for Corbin is reinforcing my belief in his 2013 effort; this guy is good |
| 4 | Joe Ross | at MIA | Sat | He’s sputtering to the finish line, but this may be our last chance and the matchup couldn’t be better |
| 5 | Rick Porcello | at TB | Sun | Has a 52% GB rate in three starts since returning (43% in 20 starts before) |
| 6 | Eduardo Rodriguez | at TB | Sat | Highly volatile, but he’s got a 1.73 ERA in the 26 IP of work; 64% of is ER have come in 14% of his iP |
| 7 | Martin Perez | at SEA | Wed | He’s an inning shy of six straight QS (3.35 ERA in 37.7 IP) |
| 8 | J.A. Happ | at CIN | Wed | He’s been fantastic w/PIT improving all of his key metrics incl. a spike in K% from 18% to 23% |
| 9 | John Lamb | STL | Thu | Two good, three bad starts since debuting, but good K and BB rates throughout; stick w/him |
| 10 | Tom Koehler | MIL | Wed | Not a sure thing at home, but does have a 3.02 ERA in 167 IP there the last two years |
POTENTIAL LANDMINES (QUALITY ARMS WHO COULD STUMBLE)
Sometimes you think you’ve got a great option for the day. Maybe he’s an expensive guy who has the track record worth trusting or perhaps you’re speculating a bit further down the list and feel like the matchup merits a gamble. However, that stud might not be as sturdy as you think and maybe the team your gamble is facing can’t hit on the whole, but the one thing they do well is the exact weakness of your gamble play. Every week will have potential landmines, upper- and mid-tier arms in a presumed rosterable spot who might actually be in for an implosion.
I changed this up a little bit to listing the offenses that are scary first and then naming the pitchers who could be in trouble against them. I didn’t list all pitchers facing them, but just those who you’d actually consider using at any point, whether it’s a stud or more of a value play. Let me know what you think of this change.
POTENTIAL LANDMINES | |||
| RK | TEAM | PITCHERS IN DANGER | COMMENT |
| 1 | TOR V. ALL | Tanaka, Pineda, Severino, Kelly | Have scored fewer than 4 just 4x in L18; such a punishing lineup |
| 2 | NYY V. ALL | Price, Estrada, Stroman, Dickey | How good is this TOR-NYY series gonna be? |
| 3 | ARI V. RHP | Greinke, Heston | Still cruising (4.3 R/G in Sep) after huge Aug (4.7) |
| 4 | DET V. ALL | Salazar, Odorizzi, Carrasco | Scoring 3.9 R/G despite 13-21 W-L in Aug-Sep; it’s the pitching |
| 5 | LAD V. ALL | Richards, Corbin, Rubby, Ray | Avg’ing 5.8 R/G w/Seager; coincidence?!? |
| 6 | SF V. ALL | Kennedy, Cashner | Sputtering of late, but still dangerous |
| 7 | KC V. ALL | Tillman, Chen | Avg’ing 5 R/G over L13, but 27 came in 2 gms; 3.5 R/G in other 11 |
| 8 | TB V. LHP | Rodriguez, Miley, Sabathia | Sitting third in wRC+ v. LHP this year |
| 9 | BOS AT HOME | on the road the rest of the week | Scoring 6.2 R/G in their last 33 games since Aug 1st |
| 10 | COL AT HOME | on the road all week | and in two big parks (SEA, SD) |