The Sporer Report: August 31st - September 6th
Welcome to The Sporer Report. It is designed to set up the week from a pitching perspective. Once the season gets rolling, Mondays become one of the regularly scheduled off days, so the slates will often be lighter and that allows us some time to plan for the remaining six days of the week, five of which will have full slates (Thursday is the other regular off-day).
Each week I will deep-dive the projected starters rundown identifying the best starts of the week, the potential value plays on the docket, and the starts where an otherwise strong asset may find some trouble. Additionally, I will rank my top 10 and bottom 10 bullpens. The importance here is two-fold: 1) you want to be careful betting on weak bullpens as it could cost you starter wins which is especially important if they are highly valued (like DraftDay where they are 10 points) and 2) if you’re stacking against some tomato can, you don’t really want him to be reinforced by a top bullpen because that could stunt your stack when the starter is lifted after two-plus innings and you didn’t get nearly the points you expected.
This is the outline for now as we start the season, but I’m certain I will be adding in-season as ideas pop up. In fact, if you have any pitching-related items you’d like to see included in the Weekly Report, please let me know in the comments or on Twitter. Also remember that anytime we are dealing with projected starters, the key is the projected part of it. They are subject to change, especially the ones later in the week.
Editor’s Note: This report is compiled early Monday morning. Scheduled pitching assignments are subject to change throughout the week.
TOP 35 STARTS (JUST THE BEST, REGARDLESS OF PRICE)
We’re just looking for the best potential payoff here. A lot of these guys will be the expensive arms atop the slate, but that investment will likely pay dividends. These are the guys you will be looking to in 50/50s and H2H matchups because there is just little chance of a total meltdown.
TOP 35 STARTS | ||||
| RK | PITCHER | OPP | DAY | NOTE |
| 1 | Zack Greinke | at SD | Sun | He’s allowed 4 ER in four starts since the 5 ER at PHI to open the month |
| 2 | David Price | CLE | Mon | Dominant w/TOR: 1.98 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, and 29% K rate (up from 23% w/DET) |
| 3 | Jacob deGrom | at MIA | Fri | He allowed 5 HRs in 15 starts prior to August before allowed 6 in six starts this month (still had 3.28 ERA, 43 Ks in 35.7 IP) |
| 4 | Jake Arrieta | ARI | Sat | No-no only shines a light on what has been an amazing season; 1.07 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, 101 Ks, and 4.4 K:BB ratio in 101 IP |
| 5 | David Price | BAL | Sun | A familiar foe that Price has dominated w/2.73 ERA in 115.3 career IP v. BAL; lefties have handled BAL all year |
| 6 | Chris Archer | at BAL | Mon | Three double-digit K games in August; BAL offense sputtering of late v. RH, too, sitting mid-pack v. RH in the last month |
| 7 | Chris Sale | at MIN | Tue | Since B2B 7 ER gms: 1.59 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, 43 Ks in 28.3 IP going at least 7 IP in all four |
| 8 | Zack Greinke | SF | Tue | I mention it weekly, but it continues to surprise me: SF has either been #1 overall or #1 in NL v. RHP for quite some time |
| 9 | Max Scherzer | at STL | Wed | Clear reason for Scherzer’s issues: home runs; ID’ing is one thing, fixing it is another; 7 HRs Apr-Jun, 13 HRs in Jul-Aug |
| 10 | Gerrit Cole | at MIL | Tue | Results were bland to start Aug (4.70 ERA thru first four starts), but recaptured ace form to close the month… |
| 11 | Matt Harvey | PHI | Wed | Extra rest certainly didn’t cause any ill effects: six scoreless w/2 H, 1 BB, 8 K |
| 12 | Dallas Keuchel | SEA | Mon | Still hear about how he doesn’t K enough, but he’s got 105 in his last 104 IP spanning 15 starts |
| 13 | Madison Bumgarner | at LAD | Tue | Who is running hotter right now? 1.43 ERA, 0.72 WHIP, and 53 Ks in 37.7 IP |
| 14 | Gerrit Cole | at STL | Sun | …with just 1 ER in 14.3 IP in his last two starts of the month, incl. one v. SF; better road ERA this year (2.13 in 84.3 IP) |
| 15 | Michael Wacha | WAS | Wed | Just two Ks shy of one-per-inning over his L15 starts (92 in 94 IP, w/a 2.97 ERA) |
| 16 | Jon Lester | ARI | Fri | One bad inning (4 H, 4 ER in seventh) spoiled his outing after six brilliant frames (4 H, 1 ER, 7 K) |
| 17 | Corey Kluber | at DET | Fri | Has struggled for his career v. DET (4.72 ERA, 1.43 WHIP), but better this year (3.18, 1.15); overall inconsistency is maddening |
| 18 | Sonny Gray | LAA | Wed | Gray held a 23% K rate through the first three months of the year, but has been at 18% in the last two months |
| 19 | Chris Sale | at KC | Sun | He’s only fanned fewer than 7 six times this year, twice against KC (6, 2) |
| 20 | Cole Hamels | at SD | Wed | Has allowed 5, 4, 3, 2, and 1 ER in his first starts as a Ranger… shutout coming this week? |
| 21 | Justin Verlander | CLE | Sun | Like Arrieta, no-no brings light to recent run, but JV has been fire for a while: 1.38 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, and 49 Ks in 52 IP |
| 22 | Stephen Strasburg | ATL | Fri | Stay tuned on the back situation, but otherwise I’m still fine using DFS’s most-hated pitcher |
| 23 | Felix Hernandez | at OAK | Sun | Big bounce-back outing against these A’s (8 IP/2 ER), but they’re still preventing a two-start week for him w/some extra rest |
| 24 | Johnny Cueto | CWS | Sun | History of injury concerns causes more freakout when he does sputter (B2B 6 ER outings) |
| 25 | Lance Lynn | PIT | Fri | Survived a fierce SF, at ARI, at SF run (1.83 ERA in 19.7 IP), but now gets PIT tm that his blitzed him in 2 of 3 this yr (6.94 ERA) |
| 26 | Tyson Ross | TEX | Mon | A FanDuel dream w/well over a K-per-inn. and no more than 4 ER in any start |
| 27 | Tyson Ross | LAD | Sat | Getting no-hit twice in nine days is tough for a first-place offense; Ross has the stuff to hand them another |
| 28 | Francisco Liriano | at MIL | Thu | Didn’t see elite Liriano for much of August, but MIL is a disaster v. LHP this year (29th) |
| 29 | Noah Syndergaard | at MIA | Sat | Opposition plays a big role here as Thor allowed 9 HRs in Aug (6 before that), but MIA is ill-equipped to exploit that |
| 30 | Carlos Martinez | WAS | Tue | Easy to suggest fatigue is contributing to 4.84 ERA in L6, but 35 K and 6 BB in 35.3 IP says don’t worry so much (.383 BABIP) |
| 31 | Scott Kazmir | MIN | Wed | Run of three straight <6 IP outings has been snapped w/B2B QS (2.77 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 14 K, 2 BB in 13 IP) |
| 32 | Shelby Miller | MIA | Tue | He’s been perfectly good since his last W (3.24 ERA and 100 Ks in 111 IP), but we need Ws in DFS so his ranking slides |
| 33 | Joe Ross | ATL | Sun | Schedule smiling on him after at LAD/at SF pair w/MIL, SD, and now ATL (1 ER in 13 IP w/11 K, 2 BB in MIL, SD starts) |
| 34 | John Lackey | WAS | Mon | There wasn’t enough space to include both of Lackey’s home starts, but he rules there: 1.91 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 4.0 K:BB in 94 IP |
| 35 | Lance McCullers | MIN | Sun | Little wobbly in MIN, but B2B QS in return to MLB w/14 K in 13 IP |
POTENTIAL VALUE STARTS (CHEAPER GUYS WORTH CONSIDERING)
These guys are very unlikely to be among the highest priced arms on the board, but obviously that juicy price point comes with risk. Just how much risk will vary depending on the slate, but there is almost always some value to be mined in the pitching pool. We swim in this pool understanding that they will bust at times and tank a lineup, but the potential upside is enough to incur that risk. These guys make great off-the-radar gambles for larger scale tournaments where you need some uniqueness to hit big.
POTENTIAL VALUE STARTS | ||||
| RK | PITCHER | OPP | DAY | NOTE |
| 1 | Lance McCullers | MIN | Sun | Usually priced south of $9000 at DK with the ability to throw like a $10K+ arm every time out |
| 2 | Derek Holland | at LAA | Sat | Survived TOR despite 3 HR (6 IP/4 ER) and followed it up w/three-hit SHO v. BAL (11 K, 0 BB) |
| 3 | Taijuan Walker | at HOU | Wed | His 26% K rate from Jun-Jul has faded to just 19% in Aug.; SwStr rate was bad in only of five starts, though |
| 4 | Aaron Nola | at NYM | Wed | Didn’t mean to reco 500 guys throwing Wed. for this section; has gone 6+ IP in 5 of 8 incl. 8 IP his last time out |
| 5 | Ian Kennedy | TEX | Wed | Has B2B HR-free outings for the second time all year (2.32 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 54 Ks in 50.3 IP since the break) |
| 6 | Taylor Jungmann | PIT | Wed | Has bounced back from all three of his tough outings w/a shutout effort incl. 6 IP/0 ER v. CIN last week |
| 7 | Andrew Heaney | at OAK | Wed | Games v. TOR are like at COL for AL teams (3.3 IP/8 ER), but he bounced right back (6 IP/0 ER) |
| 8 | Luis Severino | TB | Fri | Tremendous debut month (2.17 ERA in 29 IP); one chink in the armor is 3+ BB in each of L3 starts |
| 9 | Eduardo Rodriguez | PHI | Sun | I don’t usually bury guys on low-K efforts v. KC (1 in 6 IP) |
| 10 | Marco Estrada | CLE | Tue | He’s been very solid as SP: 3.39 ERA, 1.12 WHIP in 124.7 IP; modest starts can still pull a W w/that offense, too |
| 11 | Kris Medlen | CWS | Fri | A better version of when Chris Young was good in that he’ll only go 5-6 IP, but he’ll K more & pen holds leads for Ws |
| 12 | Collin McHugh | SEA | Fri | Allowed 8 ER to SEA leaving him w/season-high 5.04 ERA, since: 2.84 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, & 21% K (up to 25% in Aug.) |
| 13 | Nathan Eovaldi | TB | Sat | His start Sunday was his season in a microcosm: 5 IP/5 ER, but 7 Ks and a W |
| 14 | Erasmo Ramirez | at BAL | Wed | Picking on BAL a bit given how bad they’ve been; Eraser was one pitch away from a real gem v. them back in July |
| 15 | Chris Bassitt | LAA | Tue | Not dissuaded by worst start of the season, espec. bc it will lower his price again |
POTENTIAL LANDMINES (QUALITY ARMS WHO COULD STUMBLE)
Sometimes you think you’ve got a great option for the day. Maybe he’s an expensive guy who has the track record worth trusting or perhaps you’re speculating a bit further down the list and feel like the matchup merits a gamble. However, that stud might not be as sturdy as you think and maybe the team your gamble is facing can’t hit on the whole, but the one thing they do well is the exact weakness of your gamble play. Every week will have potential landmines, upper- and mid-tier arms in a presumed rosterable spot who might actually be in for an implosion.
I changed this up a little bit to listing the offenses that are scary first and then naming the pitchers who could be in trouble against them. I didn’t list all pitchers facing them, but just those who you’d actually consider using at any point, whether it’s a stud or more of a value play. Let me know what you think of this change.
POTENTIAL LANDMINES | ||
| RK | TEAM | PITCHERS IN DANGER |
| 1 | TOR V. ALL | Salazar |
| 2 | SF V. ALL | Greinke, Kershaw |
| 3 | NYY V. ALL | Archer, Odorizzi, Karns, Rodriguez |
| 4 | DET V. ALL | Cueto, Kluber, Salazar, Carrasco |
| 5 | ARI V. RHP | Arrieta |
| 6 | LAD V. ALL | Bumgarner, Ross, Shields, Leake |
| 7 | COL AT HOME | Bumgarner, Corbin |
| 8 | KC V. ALL | Sale, Verlander, Quintana, Samardzija |
| 9 | BOS AT HOME | Tanaka, Pineda |
| 10 | TB V. LHP | Chen |