The Sporer Report: Week 10
Welcome to The Sporer Report. It is designed to set up the week from a pitching perspective. Once the season gets rolling, Mondays become one of the regularly scheduled off days so the slates will often be lighter and that allows us some time to plan for the remaining six days of the week, five of which will have full slates (Thursday is the other regular off-day).
Each week I will deep-dive the projected starters rundown identifying the best starts of the week, the potential value plays on the docket, and the starts where an otherwise strong asset may find some trouble. Additionally, I will rank my top 10 and bottom 10 bullpens. The importance here is two-fold: 1) you want to be careful betting on weak bullpens as it could cost you starter wins which is especially important if they are highly valued (like DraftDay where they are 10 points) and 2) if you’re stacking against some tomato can, you don’t really want him to be reinforced by a top bullpen because that could stunt your stack when the starter is lifted after two-plus innings and you didn’t get nearly the points you expected.
This is the outline for now as we start the season, but I’m certain I will be adding in-season as ideas pop up. In fact, if you have any pitching-related items you’d like to see included in the Weekly Report, please let me know in the comments or on Twitter. Also remember that anytime we are dealing with projected starters, the key is the projected part of it. They are subject to change, especially the ones later in the week.
Editor’s Note: This report is compiled early Monday morning. Scheduled pitching assignments are subject to change throughout the week.
TOP 35 STARTS (JUST THE BEST, REGARDLESS OF PRICE)
We’re just looking for the best potential payoff here. A lot of these guys will be the expensive arms atop the slate, but that investment will likely pay dividends. These are the guys you will be looking to in 50/50s and H2H matchups because there is just little chance of a total meltdown.
| RK | PITCHER | OPP | DAY | NOTE |
| 1 | Gerrit Cole | PHI | Sat | The NL’s top ERA (1.73) gets the league’s worst team v. RH (68 wRC+) at home; Cole is pairing elite K% (28%) w/prime GB capability (54%) |
| 2 | Chris Sale | HOU | Mon | HOU is a league-average club against LHPs from a wRC+ standpoint (101, sit 14th), but 2nd-highest K% (24%) still makes them a target for studs |
| 3 | Max Scherzer | at MIL | Sun | You’d prefer to invest in these big $10K+ studs at home, but Scherzer is a road warrior: 0.79 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 36% K, & 6.9 K:BB ratio in 34 IP |
| 4 | Corey Kluber | SEA | Tue | His K, BB, and GB rates are all better or equal to last year when he won the Cy Young yet he’s 3-6 w/a 3.61 ERA; both will improve |
| 5 | David Price | CLE | Fri | The one complaint on his season is the low-ish K rate (relative to ’14); blame KC (4 Ks in 15.3 IP to start May), but on track since: 27% in last 5 |
| 6 | Chris Archer | CWS | Sat | A lot of legitimacy to this surge as a career-best 13% SwStr rate is propping up the tremendous 33% K rate; 8+ Ks in 6 of 7, incl. 11+ in last three |
| 7 | Matt Harvey | SF | Wed | His K and BB rates are now matching his 2013 which is amazing given a missed 2014 in between; SF is no walkover, but Harvey is matchup-proof |
| 8 | Sonny Gray | TEX | Tue | Remember when he had 7 BB in TEX on 5/3? Since then he’s walked eight in 39 IP w/38 Ks and a 1.62 ERA; 2nd in MLB w/4 outings of 8+ IP |
| 9 | Madison Bumgarner | ARI | Fri | Had some home woes in ’14 (4.03 ERA – yes, that constitutes as woes for MadBum), but has turned that in ’15: 2.82 ERA, 1.04 WHIP in 38 home IP |
| 10 | Johnny Cueto | at CHC | Fri | Has shown no degradation since return after 13-day layoff in late-May; two starts since returning: 0.69 ERA, 13 Ks, & 2 BBs in 13 IP |
| 11 | Max Scherzer | at NYY | Tue | I outlined Scherzer’s road dominance, but he gets MLB’s 2nd-best home tm v. RHP (.366 wOBA); their 5% HR rate at home is a league-high |
| 12 | Chris Sale | at TB | Sun | Rays could be without Longo who is battling a wrist; even w/him this lineup just isn’t all that imposing; Souza has pop, but a 37% K rate as well |
| 13 | AJ Burnett | PHI | Sun | He’s probably not better than the next 7 guys, but he’s pitching brilliantly and loves PNC Park – 2.65 ERA in 258 career IP there (23% K, 3.4 K:BB) |
| 14 | Dallas Keuchel | at CWS | Tue | Far from a K asset, but he is capable of getting them in prime outings; CWS has a 40 wRC+ v. LH, the league’s worst by 23 points |
| 15 | Corey Kluber | at DET | Sun | Mixed success v. DET in career, but had a sharp 10 K effort in early-Apr and he’s catching them in a cold spell (28th wOBA v. RH over last 2 wks) |
| 16 | Felix Hernandez | at HOU | Fri | Stros have somehow avoided Felix so far; should be an interesting matchup as HOU leads lg v. RH changeups (.383 wOBA), but still has 27% K |
| 17 | Masahiro Tanaka | WAS | Tue | Looked a lot like the ’14 version in his return last week; dating back to start of ’14, WAS has top wOBA v. splitters (.348 wOBA) |
| 18 | Jacob deGrom | ATL | Sat | Not only backing ’14 up, but showing another level to his game; really turned since start of May (1.86 ERA, 32% K rate in 48 IP) |
| 19 | AJ Burnett | MIL | Mon | MIL has a 19% K rate against RH fastballs, fifth-highest in MLB; they also have the lowest well-hit avg. against RH heat (.139, lg avg is .170) |
| 20 | Sonny Gray | at LAA | Sun | A different LAA than the one he dropped back-to-back gems on to close Apr (.371 wOBA v. RH the last 2 wks is t4th); career 2.42 ERA v. them |
| 21 | Jake Arrieta | at DET | Wed | His three worst starts are all 4 ER outings, but he fanned 5, 6, and 7 in those outings to offset the runs allowed; a true stud even v. tough teams |
| 22 | Michael Pineda | at BAL | Fri | KC dropped a 5.3 IP/5 ER w/1 K dud on Pineda after that 16 K gem, but he got ‘em back two starts later: 6.7 IP/1 ER w/8 Ks; he’s great |
| 23 | Danny Salazar | at DET | Fri | We know the CLE D is holding the SPs back, but after a bumpy May finish (4.91 ERA in last 2) he decided to just K every Oriole (10 Ks on 6/6) |
| 24 | James Shields | at ATL | Tue | Power isn’t the calling card of ATL, so Shields can keep his HR-free streaking going (2 straight so far), but their 17% K rate is tied for MLB-low |
| 25 | Shelby Miller | SD | Mon | We knew a dud was coming sooner or later, it happens to everyone; not really worried about it overall, though 6 BBs was hella lame |
| 26 | Shelby Miller | at NYM | Sat | He’s still averaging over six innings per start even after 4.3 IP v. ARI; NYM offense now languishing in bottom 5 of offense v. RHP |
| 27 | Jordan Zimmermann | at MIL | Sat | The 2014 K% (23%) is unlikely to return this year, but his results have been more 2014 after a rough Apr (4.88 ERA): 2.15 ERA in last seven starts |
| 28 | Jason Hammel | CIN | Fri | This really isn’t new, espec. compared to his work w/CHC last year; slider is driving success, CIN is one of most punchless tms v. SL (6 XBH all yr) |
| 29 | Jose Quintana | HOU | Wed | We know HOU fans a ton & they set up nicely for Q’s arsenal w/highest K rate v. LH fastballs (23%, 16% avg.) & 11th v. LH curves (38%, 33% avg.) |
| 30 | Jon Lester | CIN | Sun | He’s been much better since a tough Apr (6.23 ERA), but 8 HRs in his last seven is a little concerning v. a CIN tm w/2nd-best ISO v. LHP (.175) |
| 31 | Tyson Ross | at ATL | Wed | Only this low bc ATL doesn’t K at large, but their 31% K rate v. righty sliders is 10th-highest (Ross has fewer than 5 Ks just twice in 12 starts) |
| 32 | Francisco Liriano | MIL | Tue | A 28% HR/FB rate at PNC has home ERA up over 6.00, but 36% K rate & 5.0 K:BB ratio says that ERA could be nearly four runs lower (2.13 xFIP) |
| 33 | Lance McCullers Jr. | at CWS | Mon | There will be bumps w/the youngster, but the K upside is too rich to ignore. |
| 34 | Kyle Hendricks | CIN | Sat | SwStr% hasn’t matched K surge (K% up 5 percentage pts, but SwStr% is actually down); trending up lately, though: 22% K, 9% SwStr in last 5 |
| 35 | Anibal Sanchez | CHC | Tue | It’s been bad, but he has has 9+ Ks in three of his last five; bottom line ERA is misleading as his skills aren’t far off ’13-14 levels (2.92 ERA) |
POTENTIAL VALUE STARTS (CHEAPER GUYS WORTH CONSIDERING)
These guys are very unlikely to be among the highest priced arms on the board, but obviously that juicy price point comes with risk. Just how much risk will vary depending on the slate, but there is almost always some value to be mined in the pitching pool. We swim in this pool understanding that they will bust at times and tank a lineup, but the potential upside is enough to incur that risk. These guys make great off-the-radar gambles for larger scale tournaments where you need some uniqueness to hit big.
| RK | PITCHER | OPP | DAY | NOTE |
| 1 | Lance McCullers Jr. | at CWS | Mon | Due for price bump after CG & 11 Ks v. BAL, but still unlikely to top $8K on DraftKings |
| 2 | Kyle Hendricks | CIN | Sat | Even if the K surge is real, they won’t be a staple; could get 7 one game, but 2 the next |
| 3 | Jesse Hahn | TEX | Wed | Spent early season finding his footing, but strong in last five (2.36 ERA) incl. 16 IP of 1 ER work v. DET |
| 4 | Jesse Chavez | at LAA | Fri | Might not be able to hold up all yr as in ’14, but carried a low-3.00s thru July w/skills support; ride the wave |
| 5 | Eduardo Rodriguez | at BAL | Tue | BAL hasn’t been the powerhouse O we saw last year, espec. v. LHP (20th in wOBA for yr; 27th in last mo.) |
| 6 | Mike Foltynewicz | SD | Tue | He’s been as advertised w/big stuff generating the whiffs; SD has 7th-highest K rate v. 95+ MPH heat (27%) |
| 7 | Mike Foltynewicz | at NYM | Sun | NYM is 14th in K% v. that kind of heat (24%) incl. a 35% mark the last two wks (MLB-worst) |
| 8 | Mike Leake | PHI | Mon | Great start (2.36 ERA in first 7), gave it all back (12.86 ERA in next 3), but PHI got him on track (8 IP/2 ER, 9 Ks) |
| 9 | Anthony DeSclafani | PHI | Tue | Up-and-down season so far w/success being tied to BBs: 1.96 ERA in 7 starts w/2 or fewer; 7.58 in 4 w/3+ BBs |
| 10 | Hector Santiago | OAK | Fri | No skills surge suggesting the 2.55 ERA is real, but he has a big run every year; OAK anemic v. LH (27th) |
| 11 | Nate Karns | CWS | Sun | 56 third-time-through PA, lowest among SP w/11+ starts; TB protecting him since May (2.67 ERA in last 6) |
| 12 | Bartolo Colon | ATL | Fri | Since STL smashed him (4.3 IP/8 ER), he’s rebounded: 3.60 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, & 5.0 K:BB ratio in 20 IP |
| 13 | Chris Heston | at NYM | Tue | Feeling lucky? It could be a payoff if he’s right: 0, 1, 1, 6, 1, 5, 1, 5, 6, 0, and 5 ER in his 11 starts |
| 14 | Vincent Velasquez | at CWS | Wed | Should be dirt cheap and could be a McCullers 2.0 (1.37 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 37% K in 26.3 IP at AA) |
POTENTIAL LANDMINES (QUALITY ARMS WHO COULD STUMBLE)
Sometimes you think you’ve got a great option for the day. Maybe he’s an expensive guy who has the track record worth trusting or perhaps you’re speculating a bit further down the list and feel like the matchup merits a gamble. However, that stud might not be as sturdy as you think and maybe the team your gamble is facing can’t hit on the whole, but the one thing they do well is the exact weakness of your gamble play. Every week will have potential landmines, upper- and mid-tier arms in a presumed rosterable spot who might actually be in for an implosion.
| RK | PITCHER | OPP | DAY | NOTE |
| 1 | Jon Lester | at DET | Tue | Both CIN & DET can leverage Lester’s HR problem (1.9 HR/9 in last 6); DET 2nd to only TOR in wRC+ v. LHP |
| 2 | James Shields | LAD | Sun | LAD O has been cool of late save a trip to Coors and they’re still lapping the field in wRC+ v. RHP (123) |
| 3 | Matt Harvey | SF | Wed | SF not usually associated w/offense, but they’ve been great this year, with or without Pence (wrist) |
| 4 | Lance Lynn | KC | Sat | KC’s O has cooled the last month (23rd in wOBA), but they still don’t K so paying for high-K guys is tough |
| 5 | Masahiro Tanaka | WAS | Tue | WAS O has quietly surged up to 12th in the league v. RH, including 3rd-best in MLB over the last month |
| 6 | Sonny Gray | TEX | Tue | Gray had 6.7 scoreless v. TEX on 5/3; since then TEX has MLB-best .351 wOBA v. RHP |
| 7 | Michael Wacha | at COL | Tue | Duh. |
| 8 | Carlos Martinez | at COL | Wed | ^ |
| 9 | John Lackey | at COL | Mon | ^^ |
| 10 | Eduardo Rodriguez | TOR | Sun | He’s not yet a stud, but there is lots of buzz after two gems; be careful here, though as TOR rips LHP |
THE BULLPENS RANKED 1-30
Bullpens are the most volatile part of the game year-to-year. Look at any breakout team and there’s a good chance their bullpen performance from the previous year has improved substantially. Obviously KC’s bullpen is a high profile example, but it’s hardly new. The small samples create a ton of variance, but I can’t overreact to every week of data from the bullpens so unless I see real reasons behind the performance – for better or worse –then I’m not going to drastically move a team around. There won’t be a comment for all 30 teams every single week.
| RK | TEAM | LAST | KEY COMPONENTS | NOTE |
| 1 | NYY | 2 | Miller, Betances, Shreve | Betances finally allowed his first ER of the season (on June 5th); Betances has 2+ Ks in ea. of last 6 outings |
| 2 | KC | 1 | Holland, Davis, Madson | Holland’s results have been great, but the skills are coming around w/3 perfect IP & 4 Ks in last week-plus |
| 3 | HOU | 4 | Gregerson, Harris, Neshek | |
| 4 | LAD | 3 | Jansen, Garcia, Nicasio | |
| 5 | STL | 5 | Rosenthal, Siegrist, Maness | The pen hasn’t allowed an earned run this month yet; 86% LOB rate will regress, but the talent is there to stay elite |
| 6 | NYM | 7 | Familia, C.Torres, A.Torres | |
| 7 | SD | 13 | Kimbrel, Maurer, Benoit | Over the last calendar month SD’s 15% SwStr is tied for league-best, driving a .279 wOBA (4th-best) |
| 8 | BAL | 8 | Britton, O’Day, Brach | |
| 9 | TB | 6 | Jepsen, Boxberger, McGee | Tricep tightness for Boxberger hurts if long-term, but McGee & Jepsen can lead the ‘pen w/Geltz & Gomes supporting |
| 10 | WAS | 10 | Storen, Barrett, Treinen | |
| 11 | CLE | 21 | Allen, Shaw, McAllister | Finally playing up to their level w/the 7th-best wOBA over the last month; arguably MLB’s best in June alone |
| 12 | PIT | 9 | Melancon, Watson, Hughes | |
| 13 | SF | 11 | Casilla, Romo, Kontos | Great at inducing weak contact, but doesn’t have the dominance you usually look for in the pen (bottom 5 in SwStr%) |
| 14 | CHC | 12 | Rondon, Strop, Rosscup | |
| 15 | TOR | 20 | Cecil, Osuna, Loup | 28% K rate and 0.98 WHIP are league bests over the last calendar month, yet Cecil hasn’t seen a SvOpp since May 4th |
| 16 | MIL | 18 | K-Rod, Smith, Blazek | |
| 17 | CWS | 14 | Robertson, Duke, Jennings | It’s an OK unit and better than last year’s, but they haven’t seen the expected improvement from signing D-Rob & Duke |
| 18 | MIA | 17 | Ramos, Dyson, Morris | The pen has enjoyed nice results (1.83 ERA) since the removal of Cishek; I buy Ramos, but cool on the rest |
| 19 | LAA | 19 | Street, Smith, Salas | |
| 20 | DET | 24 | Soria, Nesbitt, Wilson | They aren’t the reason that DET has underwhelmed, espec. lately – 2.51 ERA, 1.14 WHIP in last month |
| 21 | SEA | 15 | Smith, Rodney, Farquhar | Hopefully Rodney’s removal from the closer’s role is permanent, but that alone doesn’t make their pen a force |
| 22 | ARI | 27 | Ziegler, Reed, Delgado | |
| 23 | MIN | 26 | Perkins, Graham, Pressley | |
| 24 | PHI | 22 | Papelbon, Giles, De Fratus | |
| 25 | BOS | 29 | Uehara, Tazawa, Barnes | 11th-best ERA over the last month isn’t enough to move them much as it’s still just Uehara, Tazawa, and then junk |
| 26 | COL | 28 | Axford, Betancourt, Friedrich | |
| 27 | ATL | 23 | Grilli, J.Johnson, Martin | |
| 28 | CIN | 16 | Chapman, Cingrani, Diaz | They’ve consistently walked too many all year (11%) and teams are making them pay (4.74 ERA) |
| 29 | TEX | 30 | Tolleson, Kela, Claudio | Skills do not back up the recent run of positive results in last 2 weeks: 2.49 ERA, but a 4.50 ERA thanks to poor 8% K-BB% |
| 30 | OAK | 25 | Clippard, Scribner, Otero | Doolittle back on the DL; Clippard has struggled all year skills-wise and now his ERA is showing it (3.33) |