The Sporer Report: Week 11
Welcome to The Sporer Report. It is designed to set up the week from a pitching perspective. Once the season gets rolling, Mondays become one of the regularly scheduled off days so the slates will often be lighter and that allows us some time to plan for the remaining six days of the week, five of which will have full slates (Thursday is the other regular off-day).
Each week I will deep-dive the projected starters rundown identifying the best starts of the week, the potential value plays on the docket, and the starts where an otherwise strong asset may find some trouble. Additionally, I will rank my top 10 and bottom 10 bullpens. The importance here is two-fold: 1) you want to be careful betting on weak bullpens as it could cost you starter wins which is especially important if they are highly valued (like DraftDay where they are 10 points) and 2) if you’re stacking against some tomato can, you don’t really want him to be reinforced by a top bullpen because that could stunt your stack when the starter is lifted after two-plus innings and you didn’t get nearly the points you expected.
This is the outline for now as we start the season, but I’m certain I will be adding in-season as ideas pop up. In fact, if you have any pitching-related items you’d like to see included in the Weekly Report, please let me know in the comments or on Twitter. Also remember that anytime we are dealing with projected starters, the key is the projected part of it. They are subject to change, especially the ones later in the week.
Editor’s Note: This report is compiled early Monday morning. Scheduled pitching assignments are subject to change throughout the week.
TOP 35 STARTS (JUST THE BEST, REGARDLESS OF PRICE)
We’re just looking for the best potential payoff here. A lot of these guys will be the expensive arms atop the slate, but that investment will likely pay dividends. These are the guys you will be looking to in 50/50s and H2H matchups because there is just little chance of a total meltdown.
| RK | PITCHER | OPP | DAY | NOTE |
| 1 | Max Scherzer | PIT | Fri | If there was even a tinge of worry after back-to-back 4 ER outings, he quelled that w/a near perfect outing |
| 2 | Masahiro Tanaka | at MIA | Mon | Last four (2 before DL, 2 since): 0.99 ERA, 0.62 WHIP, 29 Ks, and 14.5 K:BB ratio in 27.3 IP AKA ace-level excellence |
| 3 | Chris Sale | TEX | Fri | I’m very interested to see these two lefty studs v. TEX; they’ve been hitting lefties home or away, espec. lately (6th-best wOBA in last month) |
| 4 | Clayton Kershaw | TEX | Wed | That said, both are absolutely on fire of late and Sale has already smothered TEX in TEX this month (7 shutout IP, 13 Ks) |
| 5 | Corey Kluber | TB | Fri | So stupid that he’s 3-8 w/these skills; Lindor call-up is huge for entire CLE staff, but espec. Kluber, Carrasco, & Salazar (45+% GB rates) |
| 6 | Sonny Gray | LAA | Fri | The second-best wOBA v. breaking balls over the last month for LAA didn’t faze Gray on Sunday: 7.7 IP/1 R (0 ER) w/9 Ks |
| 7 | Dallas Keuchel | COL | Mon | COL’s 34% K rate v. LH on the road this year is baseball’s worst by light years (PIT 26%); they’re no good home or away v. LHPs to be honest |
| 8 | Matt Harvey | at ATL | Sun | A couple of 7 ER drubbings w/in his last four (8 HRs allowed in the four), but skills were still elite in the two in between starts; he’s fine |
| 9 | Cole Hamels | STL | Fri | Quietly having arguably his best year yet, the ERA is a half run higher than last year, but the skills are just insane (27% K, 3.3 K:BB) |
| 10 | David Price | at CIN | Wed | His 1.75 road ERA is actually only eighth-best in MLB; K rate has jumped from 17% in first seven to 27% in last six |
| 11 | Michael Wacha | MIN | Tue | Huge fan of Wacha and I firmly believed the Ks would come, alas here they are: 38 Ks in last 38.3 IP (six starts) good for a 25% K rate |
| 12 | Michael Wacha | at PHI | Sun | Unfortunately the best of those K performances was unused by most of us as it occurred in Coors (6.7 IP/4 ER, 10 Ks) |
| 13 | Chris Archer | at WAS | Thu | Archer has a 0.51 ERA in pure road games; I say pure bc he threw one of the gms v. BAL when they were the “home” team |
| 14 | Francisco Liriano | CWS | Mon | White Sox are MLB’s worst team v. lefties by a significant margain w/a 47 wRC+ (MIL 62) |
| 15 | Jake Arrieta | at MIN | Sat | His 0.59 higher ERA on the road is misleading considering his road skills are actually better (28% K rate, 6.1 K:BB) |
| 16 | Zack Greinke | TEX | Thu | Greinke is having a tremendous year, though it’s a little muted on the DFS landscape bc his K rate is down from 9.2 to 7.7 K/9 |
| 17 | Jacob deGrom | at ATL | Fri | ATL is NL’s KC (no surprise given KC’s old hitting coach is now there) w/high-contact approach, didn’t stop JdG from 9 Ks last time, though |
| 18 | Jake Arrieta | CLE | Mon | Hasn’t fanned fewer than 5 in a game this season w/an avg of 7 per start, but this matchup won’t be easy for him (see landmines) |
| 19 | Carlos Martinez | at MIN | Wed | Didn’t crack the top 35 bc of a trip to Coors, but stayed hot anyway (6.3 IP/2 ER) giving him a 1.16 ERA in his six starts w/44 Ks in 38.7 IP |
| 20 | Dallas Keuchel | at SEA | Sat | K’d 4 or fewer in four of five Apr starts (16%); has done so just twice in his last eight (22%) |
| 21 | Masahiro Tanaka | DET | Sat | Even on a rough streak, DET is still a solid offense (sitting league average in June), but Tanaka and Cueto are at a level |
| 22 | Johnny Cueto | DET | Wed | Cueto missed 13 days to close out May/start June, but since that return he has a 2.25 ERA, 0.90 WHIP w/22 Ks in 20 IP |
| 23 | Danny Salazar | CHC | Wed | It’s a risk going up against CHC bc their offensive upside is still huge, but Salazar’s double-digit K upside is too good to pass w/CHC fanning 25% |
| 24 | Felix Hernandez | SF | Wed | Trying not to overreact, but third-of-an-inning meltdowns like that (2 duds in his last 3 now, too) usually precede DL stints |
| 25 | Madison Bumgarner | at SEA | Wed | SEA has done their best work v. LHP, espec. in the last month w/a .354 wOBA (2nd-best) thanks to a HR surge at 3.4% (4th, and avg is 2.4%) |
| 26 | Tyson Ross | OAK | Mon | Haven’t seen the ’14 dominance yet, just mostly solid-but-unspectacular outings; lack of Ks by OAK might mean another useful/not great outing |
| 27 | Jason Hammel | at CLE | Wed | He’s been getting a lot of attention in this weekly column and now everyone else is finally starting to notice him, too |
| 28 | A.J. Burnett | at WAS | Fri | His offense has let him down in his last two w/a whopping zero runs of support, wasting his 1 ER over 16 IP, incl. 9 scoreless yesterday |
| 29 | Shelby Miller | BOS | Thu | Stop waiting for the shoe to drop, this is a good pitcher; his 6 BB outing wasn’t a harbinger of doom: 2.70 ERA, 3 BB in 13.3 IP since |
| 30 | Michael Pineda | MIA | Wed | Don’t really understand the volatility given how great he is at his best, but w/a control-focused approach, any command hitches are exposed |
| 31 | Carlos Carrasco | CHC | Thu | Four fantastic starts w/in his last five including 7+ Ks in all four; could get the biggest gain from the infield defense |
| 32 | Gio Gonzalez | PIT | Sat | Allowed 11 ER in back-to-back outings in mid-May, but has allowed just 9 ER in his last four starts combined (3.38 ERA) w/24 Ks in 24 IP |
| 33 | James Shields | at ARI | Fri | No longer operating as a human Home Run Derby machine (2 HR in last 5; 14 in first 9) and still missing plenty of bats (6+ Ks in 4 of those last 5) |
| 34 | Anibal Sanchez | CIN | Mon | Rounding back into the form of late w/11, 9, and 7 K efforts w/in his last four (1 in the other, annoyingly); a 3.20 ERA arm the rest of season |
| 35 | Trevor Bauer | at CHC | Mon | He’s shown his downside 3x this year (5+ ER); finished fewer than 6 IP in 39% of his starts last year, just 25% through 12 starts this year |
POTENTIAL VALUE STARTS (CHEAPER GUYS WORTH CONSIDERING)
These guys are very unlikely to be among the highest priced arms on the board, but obviously that juicy price point comes with risk. Just how much risk will vary depending on the slate, but there is almost always some value to be mined in the pitching pool. We swim in this pool understanding that they will bust at times and tank a lineup, but the potential upside is enough to incur that risk. These guys make great off-the-radar gambles for larger scale tournaments where you need some uniqueness to hit big.
| RK | PITCHER | OPP | DAY | NOTE |
| 1 | Scott Kazmir | at SD | Tue | Rough run of starts prior to most recent has lowered price and made him ripe to offer great surplus value |
| 2 | Carlos Rodon | at PIT | Mon | PIT is dead-last in wOBA v. lefty sliders in the last month (.112) w/a 44% K rate (5th-highest) |
| 3 | Trevor Bauer | at CHC | Mon | CHC K’ing a league-high 35% of the time against sliders, curves, and changeups, AKA Bauer’s off-speed arsenal |
| 4 | Trevor Bauer | TB | Sat | Prior to his last outing (0.9 pts), he ran off scores of 30, 28, 24, 26, and 20 pts at DK; risky, but worth the gamble |
| 5 | Trevor May | CHC | Sat | May has more than halved his BB% while also adding to his GB%; results now coming (3.03 ERA in last five) |
| 6 | Lance McCullers Jr. | at SEA | Fri | Continues to shine w/electric stuff & impressive control we didn’t see in MiLB (7% BB, 12% in 257 IP in minors) |
| 7 | Jose Quintana | at PIT | Tue | If you want a solid 17-20 pts (DK), he’s done so in 6 of his last 9 (w/a high of 34); better in roto than DFS overall |
| 8 | Jesse Chavez | SD | Wed | Ks are about the only thing missing from Chavez, otherwise it’s a repeat of his awesome 2014 |
| 9 | John Lackey | MIN | Mon | Completely different arm home & away: 1.73/6.27 ERA, 4.6/2.0 K:BB ratio |
| 10 | Ian Kennedy | at OAK | Thu | Pitching much better in June (3.00 ERA in 18 IP w/18 Ks) thanks in large part to just 1 HR allowed (12 in first 8) |
| 11 | Anthony DeSclafani | MIA | Fri | Quelled his LHB issue w/.408 OPS in last five (.945 in first 8), but sparked a RHB issue (.408 in F8 to 1.083 in L5) |
| 12 | Jorge de la Rosa | MIL | Fri | His 9.56 ERA thru 4 starts makes it hard to see his huge progress in his last 5 (2.56 ERA, 1.01 WHIP) |
| 13 | Nate Karns | at CLE | Fri | His price makes has his flaw (ability to go deep into games) palatable |
| 14 | Charlie Morton | CWS | Tue | Morton’s results have been excellent since returning, but he had all of 6 Ks in his first three starts… |
| 15 | Charlie Morton | at WAS | Sun | …before notching 6 in his most recent start; he should live in the 17-19% range |
| 16 | Jesse Hahn | at SD | Mon | Has struggled v. LHB (.761 OPS, .490 v. RH), but SD lacks any major LH threats (Venable? Alonso?) |
| 17 | Vincent Velasquez | COL | Tue | So far, so good, but it’s just one start and he did walk four in his five innings; COL sputtering on road per usual |
| 18 | Vincent Velasquez | at SEA | Sun | This SEA offense has 2nd-highest K% on RH fastballs (behind only HOU) at 20.5% (20.6% for HOU) |
| 19 | Kendall Graveman | SD | Thu | Has shown why there spring buzz since returning: 2.20 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and 3.0 K:BB (and three 6+ K efforts) |
| 20 | Wandy Rodriguez | at LAD | Wed | LAD hasn’t been good v. LH (22nd in wOBA and wRC+, 20th in ISO); Wandy is pitching pretty well so far |
POTENTIAL LANDMINES (QUALITY ARMS WHO COULD STUMBLE)
Sometimes you think you’ve got a great option for the day. Maybe he’s an expensive guy who has the track record worth trusting or perhaps you’re speculating a bit further down the list and feel like the matchup merits a gamble. However, that stud might not be as sturdy as you think and maybe the team your gamble is facing can’t hit on the whole, but the one thing they do well is the exact weakness of your gamble play. Every week will have potential landmines, upper- and mid-tier arms in a presumed rosterable spot who might actually be in for an implosion. These are listed with the scariest at the top (so most potential to largely underperform against expectations).
| RK | PITCHER | OPP | DAY | NOTE |
| 1 | Noah Syndergaard | TOR | Mon | Not quite in the tier that usually lands in this space, but just worth another mention of TOR’s scary lineup |
| 2 | Felix Hernandez | SF | Wed | Fear of injury is definitely at the forefront right now |
| 3 | Jake Arrieta | CLE | Mon | CLE’s .320 wOBA v. RH breaking balls is MLB’s best by a decent margin (COL .309); at .391 in last 30 days |
| 4 | Madison Bumgarner | at SEA | Wed | He’s not invincible, especially on the road (3.92 ERA), and SEA is hitting lefties |
| 5 | Chris Archer | at WAS | Thu | Tough to find a flaw in his game right now, though WAS can knock anyone off the pedestal for a night |
| 6 | Masahiro Tanaka | DET | Sat | |
| 7 | Johnny Cueto | DET | Wed | |
| 8 | Matt Harvey | TOR | Tue | In a season-long, I’m 100% still starting Harvey here, but at his DFS price, it’s not worth the risk |
| 9 | Clayton Kershaw | TEX | Wed | TEX is hitting both home and away against both lefties and righties (though more against lefties) |
| 10 | Zack Greinke | TEX | Thu | |
| 11 | Chris Sale | TEX | Fri |
THE BULLPENS RANKED 1-30
Bullpens are the most volatile part of the game year-to-year. Look at any breakout team and there’s a good chance their bullpen performance from the previous year has improved substantially. Obviously KC’s bullpen is a high profile example, but it’s hardly new. The small samples create a ton of variance, but I can’t overreact to every week of data from the bullpens so unless I see real reasons behind the performance – for better or worse –then I’m not going to drastically move a team around. There won’t be a comment for all 30 teams every single week.
| THE BULLPENS RANKED 1-30 | ||||
| RK | TEAM | LAST | KEY COMPONENTS | NOTE |
| 1 | HOU | 3 | Gregerson, Harris, Neshek | Operating as the highest skill pen in the league despite only the fourth-best ERA (which is obviously still great) |
| 2 | KC | 2 | Holland, Davis, Madson | |
| 3 | BAL | 8 | Britton, O’Day, Brach | Britton has quietly become one of the league’s top 5 closers w/an unmatched and elite K%/GB% combo of 33% and 70% |
| 4 | STL | 5 | Rosenthal, Siegrist, Maness | |
| 5 | LAD | 4 | Jansen, Nicasio, Liberatore | Health is ravaging this unit, but Jansen has been impossibly good since returning to cover |
| 6 | MIA | 18 | Ramos, Dyson, Capps | A new skills measurement composite I’ve started using highlights a couple teams I was overlooking earlier in MIA and MIL |
| 7 | MIL | 16 | K-Rod, Smith, Blazek | Both are above average-to-great in K%, K-BB%, SwStr%, and GB% |
| 8 | NYM | 6 | Familia, C.Torres, A.Torres | |
| 9 | NYY | 1 | Betances, Shreve, Lindgren | Miller loss is huge; Betances might actually be better so closer’s role still strong, but backfilling Miller is near-impossible |
| 10 | CLE | 11 | Allen, Shaw, McAllister | Allen’s last 15 appearances: 1.15 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 38% K rate, and 3.7 K:BB ratio |
| 11 | SD | 7 | Kimbrel, Maurer, Benoit | |
| 12 | CHC | 14 | Rondon, Strop, Rosscup | |
| 13 | TB | 9 | McGee, Jepsen, Boxberger | It’s like Joe Maddon never left w/this closer usage, but honestly we love that for DFS, it’s premium asset deployment |
| 14 | PIT | 12 | Melancon, Watson, Hughes | |
| 15 | WAS | 10 | Storen, Barrett, Treinen | |
| 16 | CWS | 17 | Robertson, Duke, Jennings | |
| 17 | TOR | 15 | Cecil, Osuna, Loup | They aren’t the problem w/TOR’s pitching |
| 18 | SF | 13 | Casilla, Romo, Kontos | I’d feel a lot more confident if they missed more bats, but weak contact is their thing and it’s worked for years |
| 19 | LAA | 19 | Street, Smith, Salas | |
| 20 | ARI | 22 | Ziegler, Reed, Delgado | |
| 21 | PHI | 24 | Papelbon, Giles, De Fratus | |
| 22 | DET | 20 | Soria, Nesbitt, Wilson | This unit probably isn’t as good as their results, but they are markedly improved from previous year |
| 23 | SEA | 21 | Smith, Wilhelmsen, Rodney | If Nuno becomes a real asset, this unit could jump in the rankings, but for now they remain thin |
| 24 | CIN | 28 | Chapman, Cingrani, Diaz | |
| 25 | MIN | 23 | Perkins, Graham, Pressley | |
| 26 | COL | 26 | Axford, Betancourt, Friedrich | Axford’s last nine appearances: 0.00 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, 28% K rate, and 4.5 K:BB ratio in 8 IP; I’m still skeptical |
| 27 | BOS | 25 | Uehara, Tazawa, Barnes | |
| 28 | ATL | 27 | Grilli, J.Johnson, Martin | Looked like they might still be OK even w/out Kimbrel, but they’ve really been poor since late-April |
| 29 | TEX | 29 | Tolleson, Kela, Claudio | |
| 30 | OAK | 30 | Clippard, Scribner, Otero | If Softwood can’t get it done, then Kindling comes in, and he usually fails so then it’s up to Gas Can |