TheVault: DraftKings GPP Plays - Week 1
When I first started on DraftKings, I never thought I’d be holding a $25,000 check (pictured right). It was one of the most amazing feelings ever. I also never thought I’d win an all-expenses paid trip to Atlantis to compete for $1,000,000. It is INSANE how far DraftKings has come since I started playing. It’s been a life-changing experience to say the least.
As we approach this NFL Season, it’s incredible to see that we’re just on the tip of the iceberg. This week we’ll be taking a stab at a $1,000,000 prizepool, and someone will walk away with a six-figure payday. Best of luck in your tournaments this weekend! Here are the top GPP (Guaranteed Prize Pool) plays I will be targeting on DK for NFL Week 1:
Quarterback
Top Plays of the Week
Matthew Stafford – $9000 – I really like Stafford as a high upside, low owned QB option this week. He’s the 3rd highest priced QB this week, but most rankings don’t have him anywhere close to a top 3 option this week. The Lions have added additional weapons in the offseason that make them one of the most talented offenses in the league. A home matchup against the Giants certainly doesn’t scare me and Vegas agrees with this game pegged as a top 5 scoring matchup this weekend. I look for the Lions to come out of the gate playing to their ability, something they’ve struggled to do in seasons past.
Colin Kaepernick – $8000 – Kaepernick leads a bunch of 49’ers that will be written up this week. Unlike Stafford, I think he will be highly owned so this is more of a fade at your own risk type of play. The Cowboys defense was historically bad last year and may actually be worse this year. In case you haven’t heard, Jim Harbaugh has an ego, and I expect him to unleash the hounds for all of the criticism this offense has received this preseason. For the salary and matchup, Kaepernick is my top QB this week.
Tony Romo – $7500 – Many people will probably shy away from Romo based off of his health and the perceived difficult matchup. Take advantage of that. I usually run with last year’s numbers and let roster additions/subtractions play themselves out over the first several weeks before I form a new opinion of a team. I’m doing the opposite with this 49’ers defense. I’m going to pick on them early on until they prove to me they are still indeed an elite defense. You can’t lose all of the players they have via free agency, injury, and suspension and expect the same results. I’m looking for this game to be a shootout and you can expect Romo to be right in the middle of it.
Geno Smith – $6500 – For those that quit paying attention at the end of last year, Smith became fantasy relevant over the last 4 weeks throwing for 4 TD’s and rushing for another 3 (20 pts/week avg). He now has a homerun threat in the running game and a legit NFL receiver, so I expect last year’s end of season success to continue into this year. The Raiders were terrible against opposing QB’s and this is great chance for Smith to put up some monster numbers to start his second NFL season.
Boom or Bust Play of the Week
Matt Ryan – $7900 – The Falcons were a complete disaster last year and Matt Ryan was right in the middle of it. Matty Ice was more like Matty Rice vs. Notre Dame. Bad. Part of that had to do with a bad offensive line and having Harry Douglas as his number 1 receiver for multiple weeks. With a healthy Julio Jones and Roddy White back in the fold, I expect this offense to get back on track. The Saints D was historically bad in 2012 but were very good last year. We’ll see if they can repeat their 2013 success but I’m willing to roll the dice on Ryan and this offense at home in week 1. Much like Stafford this is a very high upside, low owned play in a talented offense.
Salary Saver of the Week
Shaun Hill – $5000 – Hill is minimum salary so I’ll be interested to see how many people roll the dice on him because, this is Shaun Hill we’re talking about. He’s shown some flashes of fantasy potential in the past but there’s a reason he’s been a career backup. Fortunately for those looking to save some money at the QB position, he gets a home matchup against the Vikings, who were the worst defense in the league last year against opposing QB’s. If you want to load up at RB/WR, Hill is your guy this week.
Running Back
Top Plays of the Week
Jamaal Charles – $9000 – Going out on a limb here, aren’t I? While it’s easy to list Charles here every week, I generally won’t write up the studs unless there’s reason because I assume everyone knows who the studs are and to play them if you can fit them in. The reason I’m writing up Charles this week is because I think most people will elect to go with LeSean McCoy for $600 less in a good matchup. I won’t blame those people but I’m going to pay up for Charles knowing he will be lower owned. He gets a great matchup at home against a Titans D who gave up the 3rd most points to opposing RB’s last year. I expect the #1 scoring RB from last year to start the 2014 campaign as the #1 scoring RB of Week 1.
Arian Foster – $7200 – Foster didn’t play this preseason but is declaring himself 100% healthy and ready to go. If that is the case, this is the lowest price Foster will be at all year so you better jump on him early. He basically played 6 games last year and those 5 of those 6 games were against very good defenses. In that limited action, he proved he still has as much potential as any RB in the game (put up 32 points against Seattle). He gets a very favorable home matchup against a poor Washington D. I expect the Texans to use Foster early and often. He has as much potential as any RB this week and I have a feeling most people will just scroll right past him.
Andre Ellington – $6000 – Ellington was a frustrating player last year because Bruce Arians refused to give him touches, instead choosing to feed Rashard Mendenhall and his 3.2 YPC. Luckily for us and Bruce Arians job security, Ellington is now the man after Rashard Mendenhall retired to focus on tweeting about Osama bin Laden. Ellington can pay off his salary any time he touches the ball. He has homerun potential that can take down a GPP. I also expect him to catch a lot of passes out of the backfield this year. Feel free to deploy him in hopes of rising up the ranks in the last game of the week on Monday night.
Fred Jackson – $4400 – The Bears run defense was historically bad last year and until they prove otherwise, I’m going to attack it every chance I get. Unlike most people, I’m not going to run to the shiny object that is C.J. Spiller in this matchup. Instead, I’ll go with the ageless wonder Fred Jackson. Jackson has shown no sides of slowing down and was very productive last year. I expect him to get a majority of the touches and while Spiller certainly has that GPP upside you are looking for, Jackson is the better play this week.
Boom or Bust Play of the Week
Chris Johnson – $5100 – This spot was made for Chris Johnson. The ultimate weekly boom or bust, although certainly more bust than boom over the past couple of years. He gets a chance to make his Jets debut in New York against a bad Raiders D. As always, the potential is there for a huge game. This is a great spot to take that risk.
Salary Saver of the Week
Carlos Hyde – $3900 – Hyde is my sneaky play of the week at RB. I don’t expect him to get the lion’s share of the carries, but I expect him to get enough to have a nice impact on the game. Frank Gore is heading into the twilight of his career and the focus will be on him being healthy heading into the playoffs. Hyde is the guy that will spell Gore and has looked phenomenal so far this preseason. I expect him to get about 10-12 carries and that should be enough against this Dallas D to pay off his near minimum salary.
Wide Receiver
Top Plays of the Week
Dez Bryant – $7800 – Like I mentioned in the Romo blurb, I’m going to pick on the 49’ers defense early in the season while most others shy away based off of their performance last year. Dez makes a great play this week, not only because I like the matchup, but because my guess is most people will either pay an additional $300 for Demaryius Thomas or pay $200 less for Brandon Marshall in “better” matchups. If Dez gets going early, he will be primed for a huge game late Sunday afternoon.
Jeremy Maclin – $5700 – With DeSean Jackson departing for Washington, Maclin becomes the #1 option in one of the highest expected scoring offenses in the league. Much in line with my thoughts on Kaepernick, I think Maclin will be highly owned at this price tag and is a fade at your own risk type of play. This will be his lowest price tag of the season and he has a great matchup at home against Jacksonville. Take advantage while you can.
Eric Decker – $5200 – Decker may be my favorite play of the week at WR. I’ve seen some people on Twitter high on him for this week but I’m not sure the masses will be on him. He certainly didn’t go very high in season long drafts. I’m probably higher on Geno Smith coming into this year than most, but I think this will be a formidable pair this year. Decker draws a great matchup against Oakland and I think he is going to have a huge week. I’m very high on the Jets offense this week in what Vegas has pegged as one of the lowest O/U’s of the week.
Anquan Boldin – $4700 – Continuing the trend of picking on the Cowboys, I like Bolden this week. I expect most people to pay up for Crabtree but Boldin is still putting up good numbers and can be had for a large discount. He gives you exposure to one of the highest expecting scoring teams of the week at a great price, and has as much upside as anyone in that offense. Remember Week 1 last year?
Boom or Bust Play of the Week
Victor Cruz – $6300 – Cruz found himself in this section numerous times last year as the Giants offense was anything but consistent. To say they’ve been bad this preseason would be an understatement. You just have to think at some point Eli and the gang will turn it around. The new system should make this a less turnover prone offense focusing on the shorter passing game, which will play to Cruz’s strengths. With Hakeem Nicks out of the picture, Cruz is definitely the clear cut #1 option in this passing game. He has great upside in one of the higher expected scoring games of the week Monday night in Detroit.
Salary Saver of the Week
Kenny Britt – $4000 – Britt has burned me many a time in season long leagues as he has so much talent. Unfortunately he has never been able to stay healthy or keep his head on straight to showcase that talent. It seems he may have found a good landing spot in St. Louis and is finally healthy going into this season. Unfortunately he now has Shaun Hill throwing him the ball but I love him this week against the Vikings.
Tight End
Top Plays of the Week
Julius Thomas – $5800 – Thomas can be had at quite the discount to Graham and Gronk this week so I’m guessing he will be highly owned. My only hope is some people will be scared off when they see the opponents (Colts) rank of 1st against the TE last year on the DraftKings website. That’s not going to scare me off though. Thomas is an elite talent and I expect both him and Demaryius to see an uptick in targets with Welker sidelined because someone “spiked his drink”. Plug and play at this price tag.
Vernon Davis – $4800 – The final 49’er recommendation of the week is Davis. Davis is another player that will be highly owned and for good reason so fade at your own risk. Dallas really struggled defending the TE position last year and Davis is one of the best TE’s in league at exposing weak defenses. He has big play ability and probably the highest ceiling of any TE going this week. He even makes as a good flex play if you want to pair him with another TE.
Greg Olson – $4700 – If you want a low owned option this week that figures to be heavily involved in the passing game Olson is your guy. Cam Newton has to throw to someone and look for him to lean on Olson heavily in the beginning of the season as he gets accustomed to his new receiving corps. Olson is a top 10 TE in the league and should be heavily targeted in the early stages of the season.
Zach Ertz – $4100 – Ertz is primed to be the breakout TE of the year in the Eagles high octane offense. He gets a great matchup in Week 1 against a Jags defense that really struggled defending the TE position last year. At a slight discount to Davis, Ertz is a great play this week and I expect him to have a very nice game.
Boom or Bust Play of the Week
Jared Cook – $3500 – Cook was a disappointment last year after his breakout performance in Week 1 against Arizona. The Vikings don’t defend any position particularly well and they definitely don’t discriminate against letting TE’s put up big numbers against them. They were in the bottom 5 of the league last year and Cook has the talent to have a break out game. Much like the Jets, I am high on the Rams offense this week and I think Cook will be a factor in the passing game.
Salary Saver of the Week
Ladarius Green – $3200 – If you didn’t play tight ends last year against Arizona you probably didn’t win too much money as they were just atrocious . San Diego gets that matchup this week and I expect Green to exploit it. There is some risk here as Antonio Gates is still technically ahead of him on the depth chart so Green won’t be on the field for every play. When the Chargers did get him the ball last year he often turned them into big plays. Hopefully they recognize the talent his kid has and get him involved more this year. If they do, he is another candidate to be the breakout TE of the year.