TheVault: DraftKings GPP Plays - Week 4
Unless you had a lineup full of receivers from the Redskins/Eagles game, Week 3 was a pretty frustrating week. Most of the offenses we expected to go off (Packers, Lions, and Saints to name a few) did little to nothing. Let’s hope we can get back on track in Week 4. There are a lot of mid-priced RB’s this week to choose from and that’s probably where my focus will be. I also think you can get away with going cheaper at QB this week (under $8000). Good luck to everyone in Week 4!
QB
Top Plays of the Week
Andrew Luck – $9300 – Almost every ranking system I’ve seen this week has Drew Brees as the #1 QB so why would you play Andrew Luck instead at the same price? Because Luck is averaging over 4 PPG more than every other QB and Brees is on the road where he is not the same QB. Luck is going to be low owned this week and while the Titans have been pretty good against opposing QB’s so far, I see Luck continuing his early season domination and being the #1 QB of the week.
Nick Foles – $8000 – I’ve heard a lot of criticism of Foles play so far this season, and while he hasn’t been perfect, he is putting up fantasy numbers. That’s really all that we’re concerned with. The Eagles have been putting up huge numbers in the 2nd half of games. Working in Foles favor is the 49’ers have been outscored 52-3 in the second half of games this year. With Cutler, Rodgers, Stafford, and Rivers all priced right around him, Foles may go under owned against a once feared 49’ers defense.
Colin Kaepernick – $7600 – I also like the other QB in that game that is priced just below all of the QB’s just mentioned. Kaepernick hasn’t had that breakout game yet but I anticipate we will see it this Sunday. The 49’ers should see an uptick in plays and the Eagles defense just got toasted by Kurt Cousins last week to the tune of 427 yards and 3 TD’s. I certainly don’t expect that type of yardage but Kaepernick can make up the difference with his legs. Kaepernick is my favorite play of the week for his price.
Tony Romo – $6700 – I have been waiting for the Cowboys to rear their ugly head and abandon the running game and let Romo air it out 40+ times. One would have thought that time would come last week when they were down 21-0 on the road in St. Louis. Instead, Dallas stuck with run but Romo still managed a decent fantasy game. In an expected high scoring game with the Saints, this could be the game that Romo really airs it out. If he does, he could have a huge game at a very affordable price.
Boom or Bust Play of the Week
Matthew Stafford – $8000 – I really like the matchup for Stafford this week against a weak Jets secondary. Stafford has as high a ceiling as any QB going this week, but the Lions offense doesn’t perform quite as well on the road. Throw in the fact that Calvin Johnson hasn’t practiced all week and a strong Jets pass rush, the bust factor is there for Stafford this week coming off a disappointing performance last week.
Salary Saver of the Week
Blake Bortles – $5800 – Bortles came off the bench and put up almost 18 points last week in the second half against the Colts. While it was a blowout, he flashed the potential that he showed in the preseason. From what I’ve gathered this week, most people are higher on Bridgewater if going with a rookie QB. I’ll take my chances with Bortles in what could be another blowout resulting in some serious garbage points against a San Diego pass defense that has given up plenty of points to opposing QB’s so far this year.
RB
Top Plays of the Week
Matt Forte – $7800 – Forte has turned in back to back disappointing performances so I’m guessing most won’t pay his price tag as the 2nd most expensive RB this week. The Packers have been bottom 5 against opposing RB’s so far this year and Forte torched them for over 33 PPG last season. If you are going to pay up for a RB this week, Forte is your man.
Lamar Miller – $6200 – Miller is quietly putting together a very good season. He’s averaging 5 YPC and with Moreno out of the fold, he’sfinally able to carry the load in the Miami backfield. He got 15 carries last week and I look for that number to grow this week as the Miami coaching staff has close to 0 confidence in their QB play right now. If he can get 20+ carries against a beat up Raiders defense that has already struggled against opposing RB’s, Miller could be in for a career day.
Ahmad Bradshaw – $5800 – I’ve been reluctant to buy into the Bradshaw hype but he looks healthy and is putting up big numbers. The matchup is quite juicy this week against a Titans D that has allowed over 300 yards rushing and 4 TD’s over the last 2 weeks. I don’t expect many people to be on Bradshaw this week with a growing price tag, but I like his chances of another great game if he can get 15+ touches on Sunday.
Donald Brown – $5400 – If Donald Brown gets 36 touches again this week he will be a top 5 back. While you can’t expect those type of numbers, the volume will certainly be there with the injuries to Matthews and Woodhead for Brown to have a very good week. Like most people, I expect the Chargers to get out to a very big lead and use Brown to control the game in the 2nd half. I expect a very high ownership for Brown this week so fade at your own risk.
Boom or Bust Play of the Week
Eddie Lacy – $5600 – Like Brown, I expect Lacy to be very highly owned. Lacy has been one of the bigger disappointments of the season, but he has also gone against 3 of the top 5 rush defenses so the slow start should have been expected. The matchup this week is a good one against a terrible Bears rush defense. Coach McCarthy called Lacy out this week and even acknowledged James Starks has been running the ball well. If Lacy can’t get it going early, Lacy may find himself on the bench. On the flip side if Lacy does getting it going early, he has the potential to be the top back of the week at a huge discount for a back of his caliber.
Salary Saver of the Week
Khiry Robinson – $4800 – I recommended Robinson in this spot last week and he was somewhat disappointing. On the positive side, he did get 18 carries but Pierre Thomas vulture his goal line TD. I’ll take my chances again against a bad Dallas D. When the Saints and Cowboys played last year the Saints ran for over 240 yards. If Robinson can get 18+ carries again I look for him to be very productive.
WR
Top Plays of the Week
Julio Jones – $8300 – After missing most of last year due to injury, it’s easy to forget just how special Jones is. He flashed that talent last Thursday night and his price tag has caught up to his production. The Vikings defense has been much improved under Mike Zimmer this year but I don’t think they have an answer for Jones. Clearly established as Matt Ryan’s go to guy, Jones has as much upside as any WR this week.
Jordy Nelson – $7200 – After a disappointing Week 3, Nelson’s price plummeted down $1200. That’s just another reason to go back to the well with Nelson. He’s leading the league in targets and should be in line for another big game against a Bears secondary that has posted decent numbers thanks to matchups against the Bills and the Jets. Aaron Rodgers is slightly better than EJ Manuel and Geno Smith and I don’t see the Bears having an answer for the Rodgers/Nelson combo.
Michael Crabtree – $6400 – Crabtree is coming off back to back big games and now gets a matchup against an Eagles defense giving up the most points to opposing WR’s. I expect the 49’ers to have a lot of success in the passing game and Crabtree will be leading the way. He is back to being Kaepernick’s #1 target and should be a target for your lineups as well.
Kelvin Benjamin – $5800 – Benjamin’s rookie campaign is off to a good start. While he has been a bit inconsistent with his drops, he is also making big plays. He’s averaging 9 targets a game and I expect his production to only increase as him and Cam Newton get more reps together. He draws a good matchup against the Ravens. I expect the Panthers run game to struggle and Benjamin will be the main beneficiary of a focused passing attack.
Boom or Bust Play of the Week
Keenan Allen – $5300 – Allen has been the ultimate bust this season with his best week yielding just 10 fantasy points. The sophomore slump term is definitely being thrown around towards Allen but luckily for him a visit from the Jaguars should get him back on track. The Jags are giving up points to all positions and Allen should be in line for a nice game. If he can’t get it going this week there is reason for some serious concern.
Salary Saver of the Week
Allen Robinson – $4400 – Robinson is coming off back to back double digit fantasy games and is starting to show the type of production most expected of him coming into the year. He’s been the most targeted Jag so far, and with them consistently getting down early in games, they are being forced to throw the ball a lot. He may not get points when the game is close, but all we’re after is the final numbers which should be good from Robinson this week.
TE
Top Plays of the Week
Rob Gronkowski – $5700 – This will be Gronk’s lowest price point of the season so you better take advantage. His snap count is increasing by the week and Gronk came out this week and said he wants to be in there for his normal workload again as he’s feeling healthy. The Patriots offense has been terrible so far and a big reason is that Gronk isn’t being featured as a weapon. He did catch a TD though last week and nearly had another one. I look for the Patriots offense to get back on track against a banged up Chiefs D and Gronk to be a big reason why.
Delanie Walker – $4900 – Walker’s price tag is still reflecting his Week 2 monster performance against Dallas. He’s probably a bit overpriced which makes him a great tournament play. The Colts numbers may be a bit inflated against opposing TE’s thanks to Julius Thomas but I think this is a great spot for Walker. I expect the Colts to put up a lot of points and if the Titans are going to keep up, Walker is going to be one of the keys in the passing game to do it.
Antonio Gates – $4400 – Gates was a non-factor last week and his price came crashing down $1700 as a result. He gets that Jacksonville matchup that we’ve been picking on and are looking to exploit as much as we can. They are giving up the 2nd most points to opposing TE’s and most will probably be scared off of Gates after his dud last week. I expect him to find the end zone this week while also yielding a solid day in terms of yards and catches as well.
Travis Kelce – $3700 – Much like Gronk, Kelce’s snap count has increased each week. He found the end zone last week and is averaging 17 YPC on the season. I expect the Patriots to put up some points so the Chiefs will have to air it out a bit to keep up. Kelce is their best weapon and if his snap count continues to increase the targets will likely follow, along with big time production.
Boom or Bust Play of the Week
Zach Ertz – $4000 – Ertz was a hot name after the first couple weeks with all of the big plays he was involved in. The facts are he only has 9 receptions through 3 games and is being targeted less than 5 times per game. The good thing is that his price is now at a point you can take a chance on him. He is a great talent and has big play potential in one of the best offenses in the league. He presents a ton of upside for a good price at the TE position this week.
Salary Saver of the Week
Garrett Graham – $3300 – Graham seems to be getting healthy and was involved in the passing game last week. He was targeted 6 times and caught 5 balls. When healthy, he had some big games last year and gets a favorable matchup against Buffalo this week. He probably doesn’t have the upside of the other write-ups, but I think he will have a solid week for near minimum salary.