TheVault: DraftKings GPP Plays - Week 7
Another week and again another millionaire will be made. In order to take down a GPP, you will generally have to have a couple players that have huge weeks that are very low owned. The point of this article each week is to try and pin point high upside plays that I think will be low owned. I may also point out a player that I think will be highly owned that you may look to fade in hopes he has a bad week. There’s a reason players are low owned (price, matchup, injury, etc.) but if you hit the right ones, you gain a huge edge on the field. Hopefully you’ll find a couple of those in the article this week. Good luck!
QB
Top Plays of the Week
Andrew Luck – $9700 – Luck is the #1 QB in fantasy this year and he’s priced like it. At $700 higher than the next QB, I expect most will be off of Luck this week. He draws a great matchup against a struggling Bengals D. The Colts are running the most plays per game in football which is one of the reasons Luck is having such a big year. The Bengals have been shredded by Tom Brady and Cam Newton in back to back weeks so I can only imagine what Andrew Luck is going to do this week. Not to mention the fact that the Colts are coming into this game well rested while the Bengals just played five full quarters last Sunday. Get Luck into your lineups on Sunday.
Philip Rivers – $8600 – Rivers has been one of the highest owned QB’s over the last 3 weeks but I wonder if people will continue to own him at this price level. He’s priced at his highest point of the season and I’m betting most will pay up the additional $200 for Aaron Rodgers in a better matchup. Rivers is having an MVP season and it may only get better. The Chargers started running some no huddle last week which only raises Rivers ceiling. It’s tough to pair him with a WR/TE because he spreads it around so well, but don’t be surprised with another 300-yard, three-TD performance this week.
Kirk Cousins – $7400 – Kirk Cousins is definitely a better fantasy QB than he is in real life. He’s thrown eight picks over the past 4 games but I really don’t care. What I do care about is his 21 fantasy point average over those same four games. He now draws a good matchup at home against the Titans. Jay Gruden has let Cousins air it out, as he’s averaging 39 pass attempts over that four-game stretch. If he airs it out that much again on Sunday, I expect another good performance out of Cousins.
Colin Kaepernick – $6500 – Coming off a monster game on Monday night, Kaepernick is the 15th most expensive QB this week. Kaepernick has been a bit of a tease so far this year. Last week was the only game all year he’s gone over 300 yards and had more than two TDs. He’s only gone over 20 points one other time but it is tough not to love him this week. He’s playing in one of the highest over/under games of the week and the 49ers will need to score points to win. He seems to always play well in primetime games and I think he will again on Sunday night.
Boom or Bust Play of the Week
Matthew Stafford – $7000 – It’s pretty hard to fathom that six weeks into the season, Stafford is priced just $700 more than Kyle frickin Orton. That’s what a Calvin Johnson injury will do. Stafford draws a dream matchup against a Saints team that struggles with both pass rush and pass coverage. Vegas expects points to be scored in this game and if it gets near that total, Stafford will pay off this price tag.
Salary Saver of the Week
Derek Carr – $5800 – One of the biggest sins in daily fantasy is chasing the points from a players last performance. That may be the case here but I’m willing to gamble on Carr having another big week. The Cardinals are in the bottom five so far this year against the QB so Carr should have his chances on Sunday for a repeat game. I don’t expect the Raiders to be able to run the ball or stop the Cardinals which means Carr should be airing it out. If he can have the same type of success as last week he is a bargain.
RB
Top Plays of the Week
DeMarco Murray- $9600 – Murray’s price is now $1300 higher than it has been all year. For that reason alone, Murray will be low owned and makes him a great play this week. Murray is having an incredible year and to put it in perspective of how consistent he’s been just think of this. In his worst game of the season he scored 25 points. Matt Forte, fantasy’s 2nd best RB this year, is averaging 24 PPG. You can build your lineups around Murray knowing he’s going to be right there as the best RB of the week.
Arian Foster – $8300 – Foster is priced well below the Murray/Forte combo but still priced $1200 above Lynch so it will be interesting to see what his ownership looks like this week. My assumption is it will be low which is why he should be on your team this week. He’s averaging 33 PPG over his last 2 games and there’s no reason to think he’ll slow down this week. Pittsburgh got carved up for over 32 points last week against Cleveland RB’s. Get Foster locked into your lineups for a chance to shoot up the leaderboard on Monday night.
Andre Ellington – $6500 – Ellington’s price point couldn’t be better this week. Just look at the RBs priced within $200 of him. Jamaal Charles, Le’Veon Bell, and a red hot Branden Oliver. My guess is Ellington will be the last pick among those four which makes him a great play on Sunday. He has as much upside as any of them and draws the best matchup on paper. He has been solid the last couple weeks and I expect the Cardinals to lean on him after they establish an early lead against a bad Raiders team.
Lamar Miller – $5300 – Miller finally gets the nod as the #1 back in the Miami backfield after the season ending injury to Knowshon Moreno. He’s averaging over 19 PPG over his last three and I’d be surprised if he doesn’t top that number this week. The Bears have been decent against opposing RBs but haven’t faced a RB of Miller’s caliber yet. He makes a great pivot off of Ben Tate at the same price point this week.
Boom or Bust Play of the Week
Eddie Lacy – $4700 – It’s funny how the boom or bust plays have turned into first round picks that have been utterly disappointing. Lacy certainly fits that bill. Lacy’s only gone over 13 points once and what’s even more concerning is the Packers are now giving James Starks almost equal snaps. As Lacy showed just two weeks ago, he can still exploit a great matchup when he went for 31 points against the Vikings. He now gets the Panthers who are giving up the 2nd most points to opposing RBs on the year. Lacy is a big time boom or bust play this week at a price tag that is $1600 lower than it was last week.
Salary Saver of the Week
CJ Spiller – $3700 – Spiller has been one of the bigger disappoints in fantasy over the last two seasons. He’s yet to have a breakout game but that could be coming this week. He’s getting consistent touches as he’s reached 10+ carries in five of six games and three receptions in four of six. He hasn’t scored since Week 1 but at this price tag, it’s tough not to take a chance on Spiller’s upside in a great matchup at home against Minnesota.
WR
Top Plays of the Week
Demaryius Thomas – $8000 – Thomas gets the nod as the top play this week simply because of matchup. Of the four top receivers, he’s the one with the worst matchup so most will opt for one of the other three. Thomas has been on fire going for 76 points over the last two weeks. He is playing at home in a game with a high number so that kind of upside is certainly still there. I expect the Broncos to put a lot of points on the board and Thomas will certainly be in the mix.
T.Y. Hilton – $7000 – Hilton blew up last week along with his price this week. The Bengals will have their biggest test of the season this week in the passing game and I don’t expect it to turn out well for them. The Luck/Hilton combo has been working all year and it will continue this week. Cincinnati’s inability to get to the QB will enable Hilton to get open deep. If you want a high upside/low owned combo this week, Indy is the place to look.
Golden Tate – $5900 – Here is your first fade at your own risk play of the week. I expect Tate will be heavily owned at his price in a home matchup against a bad New Orleans pass defense. He disappointed last week but a main reason was because the Lions didn’t have to throw the ball because Minnesota couldn’t get anything going on offense. I expect a relatively high scoring game this week and Tate will again be the focal point in the Lions passing game.
Andre Holmes – $4800 – I mentioned in the Carr blurb we may be chasing points but it’s hard to ignore Holmes’ numbers over the past two games. He’s been inserted into the starting lineup and has answered with 195 yards and three TDs. He is getting heavily targeted and now gets to face the Arizona Cardinals who have given up the most points in football to opposing WRs. After an $1800 price jump from last week, I think most will be gun shy to pay for Holmes this week.
Boom or Bust Play of the Week
Pierre Garcon – $5000 – Garcon has gone boom just once this season while mainly being a bust. He’s been a big time disappointment failing to score five points in half his games. He was a target monster last year which enabled him to put up some pretty big numbers. He draws a good matchup this week and if Cousins can get him going early, Garcon could be in for his second boom of the season.
Salary Saver of the Week
Kendall Wright – $4400 – Wright followed up his best game of the season with a disappointing one catch, six yard performance against Jacksonville last week. He gets another good matchup this week against a struggling Washington pass defense. He should also get Jake Locker back under center who threw him two first half TDs in the last game Locker played. I think Locker will look for Wright early and often making him a great play this week at his cheapest price point of the season.
TE
Top Plays of the Week
Julius Thomas – $6900 – Thomas is having a historical season thus far. He’s on pace for 29 TDs which is just insane. He’s clearly the best TE going this week but at $1300 more than the next available option, I don’t think a whole lot of people will opt to pay up for him. The 49ers are a good defense but Thomas gets a huge boost with Patrick Willis likely being out. Look for Thomas to exploit this matchup on Sunday.
Jordan Reed – $5000 – Reed was our salary saver of the week last week but certainly can’t be classified there anymore. He’s now the 5th-highest priced TE playing on Sunday which is why I think he makes a great play. After just one strong game, most people will take a wait and see approach. Whenever he’s been healthy, he’s been a stud in the Washington passing game. He’s healthy again and I’d expect another strong game from him Sunday in a good matchup against the Titans.
Jordan Cameron – $4600 – Cameron finally had a big game last week and could put up another big effort this week in Jacksonville. The Jags are having trouble stopping opposing offenses and they certainly aren’t discriminating against the TE position. The biggest concern moving forward with Cameron is he has become so reliable on the big play. He hasn’t had more than three receptions in a game but is averaging 23 YPC, which is incredible for a TE. He has as much upside as any TE going on Sunday.
Dwayne Allen – $3700 – The Bengals have been terrible defending opposing TE’s so far this year. Luckily for us, the Colts like to get their TEs involved so they should be able to take advantage of the matchup. Allen has had a pretty good year so far and is a top ten TE going on Sunday. I’d expect him to have his biggest output of the season this week.
Boom or Bust Play of the Week
Travis Kelce – $4800 – Kelce is a fun player to watch and it seems like the Chiefs are trying to find ways to get him involved more and more each week. The problem is he is still seeing a limited amount of snaps which can limit his targets. His price is at his highest point of the season and matchup is his worst of the season. That alone will ensure he’s going to be low owned. The good thing is Kelce is super talented and can go off in any matchup.
Salary Saver of the Week
Larry Donnell – $3500 – I just can’t quit you Larry Donnell. I’m going to give him one last chance, mainly because of price and matchup. He’s put up a whopping 1.6 points over his last two games so there is a ton of risk in this play. It’s tough to ignore the matchup though as he gets to face a Dallas team giving up the 2nd most points to opposing TE’s this year. I’d expect the Victor Cruz injury to lead to more looks for Donnell. Hopefully he can take advantage this week and get back into early season form.