ThriveFantasy Props GPP Strategy - NFL Week 10
What is going on Grinders?! NFL Season is always exciting, and this year we are bringing you a weekly article to cover ThriveFantasy’s Prop GPP! Of course, because of my love for props, I’ll be bringing the heat every week to try and help you guys take down 2nd place in the contest. Laugh a little folks! Let’s talk about how this contest differs from your standard DFS contest first.
ThriveFantasy Format
Firstly, Thrive’s GPP is comprised of a list of 20 different props for NFL. Out of those 20 props, you need to select 12 props. The first 10 will be the props you want to utilize to score points.
There are an additional two props that are called In Case of Emergency (I.C.E) that you will choose as a backup in case an unforeseen circumstance comes up. It will only count if one of your 10 primary props doesn’t play in the game at all. It will not cover injuries. So it’s good for a late scratch during warm-ups, or a late family emergency that a beat writer would not know about in time to inform the public.
Those are the basics.
As for the point system, it s an over/under format, with one of them being able to score more points than the other. The higher the likelihood of the outcome, the fewer points they will give you. The more unlikely the outcome, the more points you will receive.
The fun part (which is part of the strategy we will discuss below) is balancing your risk with reward. If you take all “safe” plays—or what seem to be as close to a sure thing as can be—it may not be enough points to get 1st place. If you take all of the higher-risk props, you also may not earn enough points because you may not hit enough of them to compete. Balancing the risk and reward is the key, just like any other GPP.
But this ain’t yo’ mama’s GPP…this is ThriveFantasy baby! Let’s take a look at this week’s key selections that I think we should be targeting.
Key Selections for Week 10
I’m going to work backward here. I will start with who I think gives us the best chance to score the most points against the field and then work my way down to who feels like the sure thing. Let’s ride on this journey together and hopefully sit at the top of the leaderboard every week!
In week 10, This feels like the most comfortable I’ve been all season. I think I have a great handle on the props presented to us and it’s beginning to look like takedown SZN!
Derrick Henry, 92.5 Rushing Yards: Over, 110 points / Under, 90 points
The Titans are continuing to pound the football on the ground. Do I trust the Denver defense? Yes. However, with Henry at home, I’m expecting him to run for well over 100 yards again. Smash mouth football is the staple of the Titans offense, and Henry is the smash that’s hitting folks in the mouth. Let’s take the over here and move on.
Pick: Over, 110 points
Tua Tagovailoa, 278.5 Pass + Rush Yards: Over, 105 points / Under, 95 points
Tua and the gang continue to rack up the yards on offense against everyone that they face. I think Tua throws for over 300 yards yet again this week against the Browns, so getting the extra rushing added in is just a bonus. I don’t think we’ll need the rushing for what it’s worth as this offense continues to push the limits and the ball down the field.
Pick: Over, 105 points
Amari Cooper, 55.5 Receiving Yards: Over, 100 points / Under, 100 points
The Browns should be behind in spots during this game. As a result I’m all aboard the Cooper train. He should have ample opportunities here against the high powered Dolphins offense. I don’t think the Browns will be able to pound the ball on the ground like usual and makes the passing game and Cooper very intriguing.
Pick: Over, 100 points
Stefon Diggs, 7.5 receptions: Over, 105 points / Under, 95 points
I like Diggs, but with Josh Allen sitting I have to side with the under on receptions here. Case Keenum is a very capable quarterback and should help keep this team winning, but I don’t see Diggs getting the same target share this week and I’m inclined to take the under here.
Pick: Under, 95 points
Closing Thoughts
As you look at this article each week, I’m going to try and put us in a position to take this GPP down. I am not telling you to play exactly the way I play, but the plays that I provide you here will be my core for this tournament each week. I will have them in every single lineup. I am not saying that you HAVE to do this, but you should be able to roll these plays out with confidence knowing that what you see in this article is what you will see in my lineups.
Good luck and congrats on second place! Laugh a little folks!