ThriveFantasy Props GPP Strategy - NFL Week 12
What is going on Grinders?! NFL Season is always exciting, and this year we are bringing you a weekly article to cover ThriveFantasy’s Prop GPP! Of course, because of my love for props, I’ll be bringing the heat every week to try and help you guys take down 2nd place in the contest. Laugh a little folks! Let’s talk about how this contest differs from your standard DFS contest first.
ThriveFantasy Format
Firstly, Thrive’s GPP is comprised of a list of 20 different props for NFL. Out of those 20 props, you need to select 12 props. The first 10 will be the props you want to utilize to score points.
There are an additional two props that are called In Case of Emergency (I.C.E) that you will choose as a backup in case an unforeseen circumstance comes up. It will only count if one of your 10 primary props doesn’t play in the game at all. It will not cover injuries. So it’s good for a late scratch during warm-ups, or a late family emergency that a beat writer would not know about in time to inform the public.
Those are the basics.
As for the point system, it s an over/under format, with one of them being able to score more points than the other. The higher the likelihood of the outcome, the fewer points they will give you. The more unlikely the outcome, the more points you will receive.
The fun part (which is part of the strategy we will discuss below) is balancing your risk with reward. If you take all “safe” plays—or what seem to be as close to a sure thing as can be—it may not be enough points to get 1st place. If you take all of the higher-risk props, you also may not earn enough points because you may not hit enough of them to compete. Balancing the risk and reward is the key, just like any other GPP.
But this ain’t yo mama’s GPP…this is Thrive Fantasy baby! Let’s take a look at this week’s key selections that I think we should be targeting.
Key Selections for Week 12
I’m going to work backward here. I will start with who I think gives us the best chance to score the most points against the field and then work my way down to who feels like the sure thing. Let’s ride on this journey together and hopefully sit at the top of the leaderboard every week!
In week 12, We got a gift prop to start of our build due to weather concerns! This should help us to get rolling early and never look back. Let’s hop in.
Tom Brady, 280.5 Passing Yards: Over, 95 points / Under, 105 points
There aren’t many situations where I will take an under on Tom Brady in the passing yards department. This week however we should have some weather which will impact the passing numbers. While Tom is still able to get the job done, he is now roughly 20 yards above the books due to the pending weather concerns, and I’m inclined to take the under here and move on for over 100 points.
Pick: Under, 105 points
Patrick Mahomes, 2.5 Passing TDs+Int: Over, 95 points / Under, 105 points
Mahomes is on fire right now, and I don’t see this Rams defense (which has been dreadful) slowing him down at home. This should be yet another MVP statement game, and the receiving core should benefit a ton as well. I’m expecting Mahomes to carve up this defense from start to finish, and I’m hoping the Rams score just enough points to keep the pedal to the metal for Kansas City.
Pick: Over, 90 points
Davante Adams, 77.5 Receiving Yards: Over, 90 points / Under, 110 points
Adams is starting to get the volume, and I do mean all the volume as the injuries pile up for the Raiders passing attack. This is good for us as prop investors because we know that the volume will give us the opportunities for the yardage. He’s catching passes all over the field, and while Seattle has been a good team this season, this secondary is no matchup for Davante here.
Pick: Over, 90 points
Closing Thoughts
As you look at this article each week, I’m going to try and put us in a position to take this GPP down. I am not telling you to play exactly the way I play, but the plays that I provide you here will be my core for this tournament each week. I will have them in every single lineup. I am not saying that you HAVE to do this, but you should be able to roll these plays out with confidence knowing that what you see in this article is what you will see in my lineups.
Good luck and congrats on second place! Laugh a little folks!