ThriveFantasy Props GPP Strategy - NFL Week 2
What is going on Grinders?! NFL Season is always exciting, and this year we are bringing you a weekly article to cover ThriveFantasy’s Prop GPP! Of course, because of my love for props, I’ll be bringing the heat every week to try and help you guys take down 2nd place in the contest. Laugh a little folks! Let’s talk about how this contest differs from your standard DFS contest first.
ThriveFantasy Format
Firstly, Thrive’s GPP is comprised of a list of 20 different props for NFL. Out of those 20 props, you need to select 12 props. The first 10 will be the props you want to utilize to score points.
There are an additional 2 props that are called In Case of Emergency (I.C.E) that you will choose as a backup in case an unforeseen circumstance comes up. It will only count if one of your 10 primary props doesn’t play in the game at all. It will not cover injuries. So it’s good for a late scratch during warm ups, or a late family emergency that a beat writer would not know about in time to inform the public.
Those are the basics.
As for the point system, it s an over/under format, with one of them being able to score more points than the other. The higher the likelihood of the outcome, the less points they will give you. The more unlikely the outcome, the more points you will receive.
The fun part (which is part of the strategy we will discuss below) is balancing your risk with reward. If you take all “safe” plays—or what seem to be as close to a sure thing as can be—it may not be enough points to get 1st place. If you take all of the higher risk props, you also may not earn enough points because you may not hit enough of them to compete. Balancing the risk and reward is the key, just like any other GPP.
But “this ain’t yo’ mama’s GPP…this is ThriveFantasy baby! Let’s take a look at this week’s key selections that I think we should be targeting.
Key Selections for Week 2
I’m going to work backwards here. I will start with who I think gives us the best chance to score the most points against the field and then work my way down to who feels like the sure thing. Let’s ride on this journey together and hopefully sit at the top of the leaderboard every week!
This week seems to be a little different than Week 1, or at least it feels that way. Every prop that I will discuss here feels like it’s too good to be true, as we are getting 80-100 points on each. I don’t see the range being like this every week, so it’s a good week to have a strong core and take down this tremendous GPP!
Deebo Samuel, 75.5 Rush YDS + Rec YDS: Over, 100 points / Under, 100 points
Deebo Samuel is the San Francisco offense for now. He is the jack of all trades and a master of all trades in this offense. Last week, he had 33% of the targets, along with eight carries. Did I mention they were playing football in a swimming pool?! In what should be much better conditions, I’m taking the over here for the 100 points rather than the under.
Pick: Over, 100 points
Davante Adams, 6.5 Receptions: Over, 95 points / Under, 105 points
Perhaps the books don’t quite know what to do with Adams after a stat-filled performance in his first game as a Raider. For this contest, this feels like the lock of the century here. My only concern is that they could very well be in control of this game from basically the opening kickoff. That may be a Week 1 overreaction, but the facts still remain. Adams is a target monster, and I don’t see that changing Sunday.
Pick: Over, 95 points
CeeDee Lamb, 78.5 Rec YDS: Over, 115 points / Under, 85 points
This is another prop that feels too good to be true. I completely understand that CeeDee is the WR1 right now. I also don’t see how this offense is in any type of rhythm against a Cincinnati team that will be chomping at the bit to distance themselves from last week’s loss against Pittsburgh. With all of those factors combined, the under for 85 points is the right call here.
Pick: Under, 85 points
Joe Mixon, 62.5 Rush YDS: Over, 80 points / Under, 120 points
Mixon and company should be in control of this game from start to finish. As a result, he should see PLENTY of carries down the stretch and give us the yardage we need to go over this number. He had 27 touches out of the backfield last week, and I’m expecting at least 20 here with Cincy in control most of the game. The over for 80 points feels like another “free” win.
Pick: Over, 80 points
Closing Thoughts
As you look at this article each week, I’m going to try and put us in a position to take this GPP down. I am not telling you to play exactly the way I play, but the plays that I provide you here will be my core for this tournament each week. I will have them in every single lineup. I am not saying that you HAVE to do this, but you should be able to roll these plays out with confidence knowing that what you see in this article is what you will see in my lineups.
Good luck and congrats on 2nd place! Laugh a little folks!