ThriveFantasy Props GPP Strategy - NFL Week 3
What is going on Grinders?! NFL Season is always exciting, and this year we are bringing you a weekly article to cover ThriveFantasy’s Prop GPP! Of course, because of my love for props, I’ll be bringing the heat every week to try and help you guys take down 2nd place in the contest. Laugh a little folks! Let’s talk about how this contest differs from your standard DFS contest first.
ThriveFantasy Format
Firstly, Thrive’s GPP is comprised of a list of 20 different props for NFL. Out of those 20 props, you need to select 12 props. The first 10 will be the props you want to utilize to score points.
There are an additional 2 props that are called In Case of Emergency (I.C.E) that you will choose as a backup in case an unforeseen circumstance comes up. It will only count if one of your 10 primary props doesn’t play in the game at all. It will not cover injuries. So it’s good for a late scratch during warm ups, or a late family emergency that a beat writer would not know about in time to inform the public.
Those are the basics.
As for the point system, it s an over/under format, with one of them being able to score more points than the other. The higher the likelihood of the outcome, the less points they will give you. The more unlikely the outcome, the more points you will receive.
The fun part (which is part of the strategy we will discuss below) is balancing your risk with reward. If you take all “safe” plays—or what seem to be as close to a sure thing as can be—it may not be enough points to get 1st place. If you take all of the higher risk props, you also may not earn enough points because you may not hit enough of them to compete. Balancing the risk and reward is the key, just like any other GPP.
But “this ain’t yo’ mama’s GPP…this is ThriveFantasy baby! Let’s take a look at this week’s key selections that I think we should be targeting.
Key Selections for Week 3
I’m going to work backwards here. I will start with who I think gives us the best chance to score the most points against the field and then work my way down to who feels like the sure thing. Let’s ride on this journey together and hopefully sit at the top of the leaderboard every week!
In week 3, I feel like every selection is putting us at or near the 100 point total. This is the formula to take down this tournament. The more plays that you feel confident in that can get you 100 or more, the better our chances. Let’s get ready to win!
Stefon Diggs, 74.5 Receiving Yards: Over, 100 points / Under, 100 points
Diggs is off to a hot start to begin the season and I don’t think he slows down here against the Miami Dolphins. He is leading the charge in targets, sitting at 34% on the season. This is a huge deal for a team that loves to throw the football and will go for it on fourth down a ton. I think he continues to rack up the yards this week through volume, which makes the 74.5 too low.
Pick: Over, 100 points
D’Andre Swift, 67.5 Rush + Receiving Yards: Over, 100 points / Under, 100 points
Swift is in a timeshare with Jamaal Williams, and while his upside may seem to be capped, it is not. He gets enough targets in the passing game to continue to hit these types of numbers. Also, Swift is an explosive player that can take one big play and pick up half of these yards or more. As long as he’s healthy, I think he blows through this total.
Pick: Over, 100 points
Travis Kelce, 7.5 Receptions: Over, 105 points / Under, 95 points
Kelce should have a good game here. The problem is I’m not sure if he will be needed down the stretch, which should cap his reception numbers. I am expecting the Chiefs to steam roll the Colts and, as a result, the under on 7.5 receptions feels great. Mahomes has been spreading the ball around a ton as well. Kelce is the leader in market share, but I think they are in control of this game from the start to the finish. As a result, he shouldn’t have to push the issue much in the fourth quarter.
Pick: Under, 95 points
Russell Wilson, 26.5 Completions: Over, 110 points / Under, 90 points
Taking the under with Russ here feels free. The San Francisco 49ers should continue to try and win in the time of possession department which will keep Russ on the sidelines. I’m not expecting San Fran to run away with this game, but I am expecting it to be one of the least pass-heavy games we have on the slate. Russ has two RBs to help this team move the ball and it should be one of the lower-scoring games on the slate. I like Russ, but this is an under for this contest.
Pick: Under, 90 points
Closing Thoughts
As you look at this article each week, I’m going to try and put us in a position to take this GPP down. I am not telling you to play exactly the way I play, but the plays that I provide you here will be my core for this tournament each week. I will have them in every single lineup. I am not saying that you HAVE to do this, but you should be able to roll these plays out with confidence knowing that what you see in this article is what you will see in my lineups.
Good luck and congrats on second place! Laugh a little folks!