ThriveFantasy Props GPP Strategy - NFL Week 5
What is going on Grinders?! NFL Season is always exciting, and this year we are bringing you a weekly article to cover ThriveFantasy’s Prop GPP! Of course, because of my love for props, I’ll be bringing the heat every week to try and help you guys take down 2nd place in the contest. Laugh a little folks! Let’s talk about how this contest differs from your standard DFS contest first.
ThriveFantasy Format
Firstly, Thrive’s GPP is comprised of a list of 20 different props for NFL. Out of those 20 props, you need to select 12 props. The first 10 will be the props you want to utilize to score points.
There are an additional 2 props that are called In Case of Emergency (I.C.E) that you will choose as a backup in case an unforeseen circumstance comes up. It will only count if one of your 10 primary props doesn’t play in the game at all. It will not cover injuries. So it’s good for a late scratch during warm ups, or a late family emergency that a beat writer would not know about in time to inform the public.
Those are the basics.
As for the point system, it s an over/under format, with one of them being able to score more points than the other. The higher the likelihood of the outcome, the less points they will give you. The more unlikely the outcome, the more points you will receive.
The fun part (which is part of the strategy we will discuss below) is balancing your risk with reward. If you take all “safe” plays—or what seem to be as close to a sure thing as can be—it may not be enough points to get 1st place. If you take all of the higher risk props, you also may not earn enough points because you may not hit enough of them to compete. Balancing the risk and reward is the key, just like any other GPP.
But “this ain’t yo’ mama’s GPP…this is ThriveFantasy baby! Let’s take a look at this week’s key selections that I think we should be targeting.
Key Selections for Week 5
I’m going to work backwards here. I will start with who I think gives us the best chance to score the most points against the field and then work my way down to who feels like the sure thing. Let’s ride on this journey together and hopefully sit at the top of the leaderboard every week!
In week 5, I feel like every selection is putting us at or near the 100 point total. This is the formula to take down this tournament. The more plays that you feel confident in that can get you 100 or more, the better our chances. Let’s get ready to win!
Josh Allen, 330.5 Pass Yards + Rush Yards: Over, 105 points / Under, 95 points
Josh Allen has picked up right where he left off last season and is piling up the yards in any way that he can. This week he gets to face Pittsburgh and should continue to dominate. This team throws the ball a ton, and I’m expecting all the fireworks to be locked and loaded. He also has tons of rushing ability as well, so the combo prop here fits the build really well for us. I think he throws for over 300 which puts this prop squarely on our list to kick it off.
Pick: Over, 105 points
Tyreek Hill, 76.5 Receiving Yards: Over, 100 points / Under, 100 points
Tyreek is picking up targets galore in this offense and is turning it into cumulative yardage. He is sitting at at 30% target share, and I don’t see that changing with Tua gone. With Teddy Bridgewater at the helm now, the opportunities will still be there. Also, did I mention he’s facing the Jets? Sign me up for Tyreek to go over this week.
Pick: Over, 100 points
Tom Brady, 270.5 passing yards: Over, 95 points / Under, 105 points
Terrific Tom has his weapons back in the passing game. They may not be completely healthy, but we saw what he could do even in a rough outing against the Chiefs last week. This week he gets the division rival Atlanta Falcons, and I’m expecting him to dial up the passing yards this team needs to get on track offensively. And this is the spot to get it done! I love the over this week.
Pick: Over, 95 points
Lamar Jackson, 225.5 Passing Yards: Over, 90 points / Under, 110 points
This Baltimore defense is giving up over 300 yards per game to opposing offenses so far. Insert the Cincinnati Bengals into their lives and we get another team with a trio of receivers that could burn this secondary. As a result, Lamar should be forced to pass the ball a bit more. Even if he isn’t, the Bengals have had their woes this season as well. I like our chances for him to go over here due to the game-script I am projecting.
Pick: Over, 90 points
Closing Thoughts
As you look at this article each week, I’m going to try and put us in a position to take this GPP down. I am not telling you to play exactly the way I play, but the plays that I provide you here will be my core for this tournament each week. I will have them in every single lineup. I am not saying that you HAVE to do this, but you should be able to roll these plays out with confidence knowing that what you see in this article is what you will see in my lineups.
Good luck and congrats on second place! Laugh a little folks!