ThriveFantasy Props GPP Strategy - NFL Week 7
What is going on Grinders?! NFL Season is always exciting, and this year we are bringing you a weekly article to cover ThriveFantasy’s Prop GPP! Of course, because of my love for props, I’ll be bringing the heat every week to try and help you guys take down 2nd place in the contest. Laugh a little folks! Let’s talk about how this contest differs from your standard DFS contest first.
ThriveFantasy Format
Firstly, Thrive’s GPP is comprised of a list of 20 different props for NFL. Out of those 20 props, you need to select 12 props. The first 10 will be the props you want to utilize to score points.
There are an additional 2 props that are called In Case of Emergency (I.C.E) that you will choose as a backup in case an unforeseen circumstance comes up. It will only count if one of your 10 primary props doesn’t play in the game at all. It will not cover injuries. So it’s good for a late scratch during warm ups, or a late family emergency that a beat writer would not know about in time to inform the public.
Those are the basics.
As for the point system, it s an over/under format, with one of them being able to score more points than the other. The higher the likelihood of the outcome, the less points they will give you. The more unlikely the outcome, the more points you will receive.
The fun part (which is part of the strategy we will discuss below) is balancing your risk with reward. If you take all “safe” plays—or what seem to be as close to a sure thing as can be—it may not be enough points to get 1st place. If you take all of the higher risk props, you also may not earn enough points because you may not hit enough of them to compete. Balancing the risk and reward is the key, just like any other GPP.
But “this ain’t yo’ mama’s GPP…this is ThriveFantasy baby! Let’s take a look at this week’s key selections that I think we should be targeting.
Key Selections for Week 7
I’m going to work backwards here. I will start with who I think gives us the best chance to score the most points against the field and then work my way down to who feels like the sure thing. Let’s ride on this journey together and hopefully sit at the top of the leaderboard every week!
In week 7, I feel like every selection is putting us at or near the 100 point total. This is the formula to take down this tournament. The more plays that you feel confident in that can get you 100 or more, the better our chances. Let’s get ready to win!
Justin Herbert, 282.5 Passing Yards: Over, 115 points / Under, 85 points
This may be the easiest matchup of the year for Herbert through the air. Seattle is giving up on average 245 yards through the air. Herbert should feast here and be able to move the ball with ease. 282.5 may feel high initially, but he should be able to let it rip here and pick up multiple chuck plays. I love this spot for him and the over feels like the right choice.
Pick: Over, 115 points
Tyreek Hill, 81.5 Receiving Yards: Over, 110 points / Under, 90 points
Tyreek has been feasting every week, and this week is no different. He will be at home facing the Steelers and with the amount of volume he is getting in the passing game he doesn’t need the “big” plays to get there anymore. Last week has picked up 15 targets and had another big target game (14) 2 weeks prior. This is a recipe for success to pick up the yardage we need.
Pick: Over, 110 points
Joe Burrow, 279.5 Passing Yards: Over, 105 points / Under, 95 points
The Bengals are getting in a groove on offense. Last week we saw them go into New Orleans and have a relatively successful passing campaign. As Higgins gets back to being completely healthy it should continue to open up this offense. Chase picked up his second game this season over 100 yards receiving and I expect the same formula this week against the Falcons. Burrow should be getting the ball to his playmakers all day and if they hit the big shot he will go over this total early in the 4th quarter. Atlanta has been playing well so I expect the Bengals to have to keep their foot on the pedal if they want to win this game at home.
Pick: Over, 105 points
Chris Godwin, 61.5 Receiving Yards : Over, 100 points / Under, 100 points
The Panthers are in the midst of a fire sale. This team has given up on this season and is looking towards the future. In come the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who need to keep winning games to stay in the race in the NFC. I think the Bucs get anything they want in this matchup, and Chris Godwin will be a huge part of that. The targets will be there, the yards after the catch will be there, and the yardage will pile up quickly.
Pick: Over, 100 points
Closing Thoughts
As you look at this article each week, I’m going to try and put us in a position to take this GPP down. I am not telling you to play exactly the way I play, but the plays that I provide you here will be my core for this tournament each week. I will have them in every single lineup. I am not saying that you HAVE to do this, but you should be able to roll these plays out with confidence knowing that what you see in this article is what you will see in my lineups.
Good luck and congrats on second place! Laugh a little folks!