ThriveFantasy Props GPP Strategy - NFL Week 8
What is going on Grinders?! NFL Season is always exciting, and this year we are bringing you a weekly article to cover ThriveFantasy’s Prop GPP! Of course, because of my love for props, I’ll be bringing the heat every week to try and help you guys take down 2nd place in the contest. Laugh a little folks! Let’s talk about how this contest differs from your standard DFS contest first.
ThriveFantasy Format
Firstly, Thrive’s GPP is comprised of a list of 20 different props for NFL. Out of those 20 props, you need to select 12 props. The first 10 will be the props you want to utilize to score points.
There are an additional 2 props that are called In Case of Emergency (I.C.E) that you will choose as a backup in case an unforeseen circumstance comes up. It will only count if one of your 10 primary props doesn’t play in the game at all. It will not cover injuries. So it’s good for a late scratch during warm ups, or a late family emergency that a beat writer would not know about in time to inform the public.
Those are the basics.
As for the point system, it s an over/under format, with one of them being able to score more points than the other. The higher the likelihood of the outcome, the less points they will give you. The more unlikely the outcome, the more points you will receive.
The fun part (which is part of the strategy we will discuss below) is balancing your risk with reward. If you take all “safe” plays—or what seem to be as close to a sure thing as can be—it may not be enough points to get 1st place. If you take all of the higher risk props, you also may not earn enough points because you may not hit enough of them to compete. Balancing the risk and reward is the key, just like any other GPP.
But this ain’t yo’ mama’s GPP…this is ThriveFantasy baby! Let’s take a look at this week’s key selections that I think we should be targeting.
Key Selections for Week 8
I’m going to work backwards here. I will start with who I think gives us the best chance to score the most points against the field and then work my way down to who feels like the sure thing. Let’s ride on this journey together and hopefully sit at the top of the leaderboard every week!
In week 8, I feel like every selection is putting us at or near the 100 point total. This is the formula to take down this tournament. The more plays that you feel confident in that can get you 100 or more, the better our chances. Let’s get ready to win!
Alvin Kamara, 66.5 Rushing Yards: Over, 100 points / Under, 100 points
The last time Alvin Kamara hit the field this line was sitting in the same spot. The difference is the game got out of control and the Saints had to abandon the run. I don’t see that happening this time and I’m going right back to the well here with a line at this mark. We were seeing Kamara pick up 20 touches just on the ground prior to that last game. If we see anything like that in this one he’s an automatic over.
Pick: Over, 100 points
Justin Jefferson, 85.5 Receiving Yards: Over, 100 points / Under, 100 points
Jefferson is the focal point of the air attack in Minnesota. He’s sitting at a 30% target share which typically translates to over 10 targets per game. With this type of volume and the style of route running that is in his arsenal, he may hit this total in 4 catches or less. I love this number against an Arizona team that hasn’t lived up to expectations this season. Most importantly, Arizona has Hopkins back which should help them keep up and allow Jefferson to continue to rack up the yardage.
Pick: Over, 100 points
Derrick Henry, 102.5 Rush + Receiving Yards: Over, 100 points / Under, 100 points
King Henry is on a roll right now, and the Houston Texans get to see him in the middle of his best stretch of the season. I’m expecting Henry to go well over 100 yards rushing so having the extra juice with the combined rushing and receiving is a gift that I’m going to receive. This is one of my favorite props on the week in this contest.
Pick: Over, 100 points
Kyler Murray, 22.5 completions : Over, 85 points / Under, 115 points
Murray and the Cardinals should be behind in this game at certain points and this is where this prop comes into play. The more this team has to throw, the easier it will be for him to hit his completions prop. Did I mention that Hopkins is back in the fold? This should help both sides of this game and this may in fact be incredibly low by the time this game ends. I’m expecting at least 25 completions in this game and love the over here.
Pick: Over, 85 points
Closing Thoughts
As you look at this article each week, I’m going to try and put us in a position to take this GPP down. I am not telling you to play exactly the way I play, but the plays that I provide you here will be my core for this tournament each week. I will have them in every single lineup. I am not saying that you HAVE to do this, but you should be able to roll these plays out with confidence knowing that what you see in this article is what you will see in my lineups.
Good luck and congrats on second place! Laugh a little folks!