ThriveFantasy Props GPP Strategy - NFL Week 9
What is going on Grinders?! NFL Season is always exciting, and this year we are bringing you a weekly article to cover ThriveFantasy’s Prop GPP! Of course, because of my love for props, I’ll be bringing the heat every week to try and help you guys take down 2nd place in the contest. Laugh a little folks! Let’s talk about how this contest differs from your standard DFS contest first.
ThriveFantasy Format
Firstly, Thrive’s GPP is comprised of a list of 20 different props for NFL. Out of those 20 props, you need to select 12 props. The first 10 will be the props you want to utilize to score points.
There are an additional two props that are called In Case of Emergency (I.C.E) that you will choose as a backup in case an unforeseen circumstance comes up. It will only count if one of your 10 primary props doesn’t play in the game at all. It will not cover injuries. So it’s good for a late scratch during warm-ups, or a late family emergency that a beat writer would not know about in time to inform the public.
Those are the basics.
As for the point system, it s an over/under format, with one of them being able to score more points than the other. The higher the likelihood of the outcome, the fewer points they will give you. The more unlikely the outcome, the more points you will receive.
The fun part (which is part of the strategy we will discuss below) is balancing your risk with reward. If you take all “safe” plays—or what seem to be as close to a sure thing as can be—it may not be enough points to get 1st place. If you take all of the higher-risk props, you also may not earn enough points because you may not hit enough of them to compete. Balancing the risk and reward is the key, just like any other GPP.
But this ain’t yo’ mama’s GPP…this is ThriveFantasy baby! Let’s take a look at this week’s key selections that I think we should be targeting.
Key Selections for Week 9
I’m going to work backward here. I will start with who I think gives us the best chance to score the most points against the field and then work my way down to who feels like the sure thing. Let’s ride on this journey together and hopefully sit at the top of the leaderboard every week!
In week 9, This feels like the odd combination of props we have seen all season. I don’t feel like many are slam dunks here which should give us some opportunities to really get a leg up on the field. Let’s dig in.
Tom Brady, 285.5 Passing Yards: Over, 115 points / Under, 85 points
The run game for Tampa Bay has not been able to get going this season. This will lead the Bucs to continue to push the ball down the field. As long as this offensive line can keep Brady somewhat clean the yards will be there. He has enough weapons in Evans and Godwin and I’m expecting this to materialize into a big game for Brady against an awful LA Rams team.
Pick: Over, 115 points
Tyreek Hill, 86.5 Receiving Yards: Over, 100 points / Under, 100 points
Tyreek continues to just burn teams week in and week out with his speed, but most importantly his volume. With the Bears trading away 2 of their top defenders I’m rolling him out with an over yet again this week. He just has too many opportunities to burn defenses. If he picks up one big play he’s pretty much an automatic over and I think we see him fly yet again this week.
Pick: Over, 100 points
Josh Allen, 274.5 Passing Yards: Over, 95 points / Under, 105 points
The Buffalo Bills want to push the ball down the field. They should be able to do that with ease this week against the Jet. Yes, this defense has absolutely improved, but they won’t be any match for this high-octane offense. Allen goes over 300 yet again in this spot against a division rival in the Jets.
Pick: Over, 95 points
Joe Burrow, 22.5 completions: Over, 85 points / Under, 115 points
Joe Burrow and the Bengals are at home this week versus the Panthers of Carolina. I suspect that they will want to get this passing game back on track in the absence of Ja’Marr Chase. The Panthers have been fine on defense, but I am putting my money in the hands of Joe this week. The run game is not going well and they have to pass to score points. As a result, this should be a nice sweat-free (hopefully) completion number to go over with.
Pick: Over, 85 points
Closing Thoughts
As you look at this article each week, I’m going to try and put us in a position to take this GPP down. I am not telling you to play exactly the way I play, but the plays that I provide you here will be my core for this tournament each week. I will have them in every single lineup. I am not saying that you HAVE to do this, but you should be able to roll these plays out with confidence knowing that what you see in this article is what you will see in my lineups.
Good luck and congrats on second place! Laugh a little folks!